The Great Energy Pinky Promise (The Roundup)
Iran war throws energy into a tizzy, Canada makes waves at PDAC and tech CEOs promise to be good + all the important stories you've missed (March 8, 2026)
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Hi everyone,
Last week I skipped my weekly roundup thanks to the breakout of Epic Fury / Roaring Lion. I did opine that it’s too early to tell how the war will unfold and therefore analysts should wait a second for things to develop:
I will be opining once again soon with my thoughts about what I think you should pay attention to, but for now I’m trying to get back at it with the weekly update on things you probably missed.
Hope you enjoy this edition of the Roundup!
~Arod
TL;DR
The Bigger Things
Iran War makes energy complicated (when is it not)
China released its 15th Five-Year-Plan (can’t wait for the movie)
The Smaller Things
Canada’s announcement-palooza at PDAC (putting money where Mark Carney’s mouth is)
Data Center Wars: Tech CEOs sign a pledge (it’s like a pinky promise but for adults)
In Other News: Nuclear is hype except in China, Planet heating up faster than we thought and so much more.
The Bigger Things
The biggest stories you probably missed:
Iran War Makes Energy Complicated
What Happened? It’s almost impossible to recap the week without addressing the war with Iran (Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion), and the situation evolves daily (especially for those, like me, who are within missile range).
Recently, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off almost 20% of the world’s oil supply. The conflict has spiked oil and LNG prices, rattled global markets, and sent the Trump Administration scrambling for solutions.
Why Care? 🤷♂️ Because the war and the closure of Hormuz will have both short term and more enduring, long-term impacts on the global energy sector and will have unintended consequences. One such long-term consequence might actually be a good thing for renewable energy, convincing countries to move away from “risky” oil and LNG and move to more resilient solar and wind. Not everyone agrees, though.
My Take: ✍️ I know everyone is fixated on the energy markets right now, but I think the real hidden crunch will be in the critical mineral sector. Stay tuned for a deeper dive from me on this topic later this week.
China Releases 15th Five-Year Plan
What Happened? China finally dropped its long-awaited 15th Five-Year-Plan (2026-2030) this week, and for decarbonization buffs, it’s a mixed bag. On one hand, Beijing disappointed climate advocates by weakening its carbon intensity reduction target to 17% (down from 18%) and remaining stubbornly ambiguous on coal. On the other hand, the plan expands carbon markets and mandates massive “clean-energy bases” in the desert to continue the renewable buildout.
Think Tank CREA summed it best:
China’s 15th Five-year Plan continues the pattern in the country’s climate policy established in the past five years: strong support for scaling up clean energy and emerging low-carbon industries, but continued caution when it comes to setting firm constraints on fossil fuel consumption and emission growth.
Why Care? 🤷♂️ Because, well, it’s China. China’s FYPs help us understand the trajectory of a superpower. They signal exactly what the global push toward decarbonization will look like over the next half-decade. Right now, it looks like Beijing will continue oscillating between its desire for global climate leadership and its domestic need for grid stability.
My Take: ✍️ I'll be watching to see how China continues to push down global prices on solar and wind, but the real space to watch is their progress on scaling nuclear energy while the rest of the world lags behind.
The Smaller Things
The stories you should have on your radar:
Canada’s Announcement-Palooza at PDAC
What Happened: Canada has hosted the 2026 Prospectors and Developers Associations Conference in Toronto. Canada’s government leveraged the occasion to announce a host of investments and programs, including:
$1.5B (CAD) First and Last Mile Fund, designed to build infrastructure to support remote mines and processing hubs
$2B (CAD) Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, designed to secure supplies of graphite, lithium and rare earths. It’s the Canadian response to US’s Vault (well, kind of)
Critical Minerals Production Alliance expansion, unlocking $12.1B (CAD) in capital alongside 12 allied nations to reduce reliance on adversarial supply chains
A Joint Declaration of Intent with Greenland designed to increase collaboration between the two countries on energy security, minerals and Arctic infrastructure
Why Care? 🤷♂️ Because Canada is putting its money where Mark Carney’s mouth is:
It’s no coincidence this comes just months after Carney’s landmark Davos speech. Canada is actively gearing up to be the sherpa of the Middle Powers, investing heavily in critical industries to buy itself options, security, and global influence.
My Take: ✍️ I’m with Canada on this, and happy to see its increased role in the Arctic. I’m impressed with just how much Canada is stepping in show friendship to Greenland (even though Canada is clearly taking advantage of the situation)
Data Center Wars: The Great Energy Pinky Promise
What Happened: Tech CEOs met with President Donald Trump this week to sign the Ratepayer Protection Pledge”, which is a nice way of saying Bring Your Own Energy.
The pledge includes five core commitments:
Why Care? 🤷♂️ Because this is one of the Administration’s key efforts to address the growing political tensions caused by Data Centers (they are really unpopular) ahead of the Midterms. The strategy relies entirely on BYOE. While it sounds great in theory, it’s a double-edged sword: critics warn the "grid defection" cost shift could actually backfire, leaving individual ratepayers to foot an even higher bill.
My Take: ✍️ Two question come to mind: (1) Will companies actually comply with the pledge?; (2) If they will, will it work? Honestly, I’m not sure it matters. With the Midterms just around the corner, this is about optics, and there is zero chance we'll see structural change before November.
In Other News:
📰 Earth’s warming rate has nearly doubled since 2015, now 0.35°C/decade. This is the first statistically confirmed acceleration, pointing to a Paris breach before 2030. (oh boy it CAN get worse)
📰 Trump’s Cook Inlet offshore lease sale attracted zero bids, the first of six Congress mandated, exposing the gap between energy dominance rhetoric and market reality. (I guess no one wants to drill baby drill?)
📰 Coastal sea levels are a foot higher than assumed in 90% of climate models, with up to 3 feet more in Southeast Asia, putting 37% more land at risk. (oh hey prepare your wetsuit)
📰 Barclays warned clean energy faces stranded asset risk as capital rotates back toward fossil fuels following the Iran war shock. (well, for now at least)
📰 Bill Gates’ TerraPower received its federal construction permit for a sodium-cooled reactor in Wyoming — the first advanced nuclear permit in decades.
📰 Meanwhile, Bloomberg pushed back on nuclear renaissance hype, noting most announced projects are years behind. China is doing well, however (Nuclear is big, but mostly in China)
📰 Cameco signed a $1.9B uranium supply deal with India — the largest civil nuclear fuel contract in India’s history, as Modi doubles down on atomic energy (Modi is in a Nuclear mood)
📰 Vermont’s clean heat standard collapsed under political and economic pressure — a cautionary tale about the gap between passing climate law and making it survive. (well I got nothing funny to say, it’s just sad)
Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽
See you next week!
Thanks for keeping me updated in all that actually matters (behind the black smoke of war bombs)