It's Getting Hotter in the Arctic
Russia, the US, and China all know it's not about the ice, but rather what happens when it's gone.
Imagine being a Russian soldier at the height of the Russia-Ukraine War. As you psych yourself for deployment, you suddenly get your orders, and they were not what you had in mind. Instead of going down south, you are asked to go north… to the Arctic.
“Really? It’s just a bunch of ice” you think. Well, you’re in for a surprise. You are going to participate in one of the greatest scrambles for power and resources in the coming decades: The race to dominate the Arctic!
Looking for Clues: Signs of the Reconfiguration in the Arctic🔎
The Arctic is a massive frozen tundra, stretching over 20 million kilometers and shared by countries like Canada and Russia. Yep, that's a whole lot of ice! 🧊
Despite the impression of a barren hinterland one gets, the Arctic is home to a complex ecosystem that includes bears, walruses, whales and other species of animals. But still, lots of ice. 🧊
The beautiful tapestry of wildlife and breathtaking views are not enough to make the Arctic a tourist attraction (except for the very brave and adventerous), given that the extreme conditions make it an unforgiving terrain for most of us. While not great as a tourist destination, the Arctic is plentiful with natural resources and strategic advantages to those who can tame it, and many countries already “smell” the potential.
A hidden race is afoot.
Still, as a recently dispatched Russian soldier to the Arctic, you find yourself with nothing but frozen tundra. Ok, fine, you get it. World powers, race, etc. etc. etc. But as you try to avoid hypothermia with 6,000 layers of clothing you realize there’s still something in the way. What is it? Well… it’s all the ice. 🧊🧊🧊
Clue #1: Enter Climate Change
Yeah, the ice is going away.
The Arctic is currently experiencing the full brunt of climate change, with rising temperatures causing both permafrost thaw and sea ice decline:
Arctic sea ice is diminishing by roughly 66,000 square kilometers annually, and we can assume it is likely to get worse
Summer ice is declining by 12% per decade, according to NASA
The permafrost is also thawing at an accelerated rate, releasing methane into the atmosphere and destablizing the ground that sustains existing built infrastructure, such as roads, pipelines, and buildings
The sustained thawing of ice and permafrost puts entire ecosystems in duress and has extensive consequences for the region and the world at large
Oh great, you’re thinking: “When can I take all of these layers of clothes off?”
While it may be a blessing for your deployment, the fast pace of thawing is not good news, potentially leading to catastrophic consequences on entire ecosystems, and potentially the world, including increased methane emissions and ocean current disruption (running AMOC, as they say).
But hey, maybe one day you’ll be able to patrol in shorts?
Clue #2: Increased Attention Towards the Arctic🪖
As the permafrost thaws and the ice slowly goes away, there is a “surprising” surge in interest in the region by world powers, in a manner that resembles competition for resources and hegemony.
You kind of knew it. What really tipped you off was sharing a bunk with a Chinese engineer and seeing American icebreakers with the fancy binoculars they finally approved for you to use.
So, to better understand what’s going on, let’s look at how three particular powers vie for control over the region:
Russia:
Russian military documents highlight the Arctic's strategic importance.
The 2022 Naval Doctrine clearly defines the Arctic as a key priority for Russia and is viewed, according to doctrine, as a theater for world power competition.
In a similar fashion, the "Strategy of Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and the Provision of National Security for the Period to 2035” document defines the Arctic as a key strategic region for resource extraction, infrastructure development and military action. Sidenote, don’t you just love the mouthful that is policy paper headlines.
I know what you’re thinking… It’s all talk🗣️ Well, not really:
Russia has built hundreds of military bases between 2014-2019 in the Arctic, including airfields, stations, and missile defense systems 🚀
Russia has been conducting military exercises with China (who else…) in the region and engages in heightened economic collaboration as part of a future Polar Silk Road
NATO and Uncle Sam:
Don’t you worry, NATO and the US aren’t exactly resting on their laurels (I’ll leave the geopolitical debate on adequacy aside):
NATO is enhancing their military posture and increasing their military exercises in the region 🔱 (despite not having a coherent strategy…)
Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO is seen as a way to bolster its position in the Arctic and increase deterrence.
The US is developing new infrastructure and investing in new capabilities in the region and modernizing its surveillance and technology infrastructure.
The US is bolstering its military presence in response to Russian-Chinese efforts, per its updated 2024 DOD Arctic Strategy.
China:
China's Arctic interest signals significant developments, despite lacking direct access:
For the first time, the Arctic is mentioned in the 2021-2025 Five Year Plan as part of a desire to create a Polar Silk Road.
The Polar Silk Road idea was invoked, as China eyes new shipping routes, as an extension of the Belt and Road initiative.
China has proclaimed itself a Near Arctic State (yes they made that one up, but go argue with China…).
In collaboration with Russia, China invests heavily in economic projects, including LNG terminals and rare earth mineral extraction activities.
Clue #3: Everyone Else - Pile On!
If the involvement of world powers in the Arctic wasn’t enough, enter the private and non-profit sector into the mix. Unlike world powers, these actors are not looking for world domination, hegemony, or the ability to tax others. Rather, many of them want to avert disaster, influence the future, and of course make a quick buck.
Again, that’s not real news to you. You got the picture after the third Greenpeace activist you had to shoo away from your base, and after the 500th real estate agent that came to offer you a great deal on a property just 30 miles away, with a (frozen) lake view. Gee, that last one was relentless… But we digress.
So, let’s look at what’s happening on this front:
Many NGOs are working to reduce emissions and apply pressure on countries and corporations to reduce the strain on the region and to reconsider their attempts to extract resources from the Arctic (hey Greenpeace, WWF, Ocean Conservatory I’m looking at you!)
On the other hand, for many companies, an iceless future is a pot of gold 💰. Extracting resources and all.
Still, not everyone is quick to jump into the ice-free pond. Many shipping companies have pledged to explore the region sustainably and reduce emissions under the banner of the Arctic Corporate Shipping Pledge. We’ll see how that goes…
Clue #4: Ships, Ahoy! 🚢
You are on your way to the land of nod, aboard the dream express, when suddenly a loud horn blast wakes you up. Grumpily, you take a look outside to see what derailed your gallant effort to get a wink. To your surprise, it’s a cargo ship. Hang on a second, there was a lot of ice there a minute ago, no?
Perhaps one of the most significant prizes for the winner in this race to dominate the Arctic is the control over shipping routes. In betting the ice will disappear (as is likely to occur), world powers are essentially wagering that new shipping lanes will open up, and in turn that will change global shipping dynamics. Some of these changes can be of global significance and may send shockwaves halfway across the globe.
The expected changes in shipping routes are the strongest clue, in my opinion, that Climate Change is the dominant culprit in the relatively sudden interest in the Arctic.
Among the primary shipping routes touted to open are:
The Northwest Passage: Connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans
The Northern Sea Route: From the Kara Sea to the Bering Strait
The Transpolar Sea Route: Connecting Europe and Asia over the North Pole
These routes, when ice-free (or ice-thin) provide shorter routes than the Panama and Suez canals offer today, helping to reduce shipping times and costs. Suddenly, betting on ice-free summers becomes a very lucrative one, and one with geopolitical importance.
Reconfiguration at Play: What the F is Going On?🤷♂️
After examining American, Chinese, and Russian activities in the Arctic, we can all ask the same question: What the F is going on? Why are they increasingly obssessed over this large chunk of ice 🧊? I mean, the world is big enough to fight over resources elsewhere.
In more ways than one, the increased attention to the Arctic is quintessentially reconfiguration at play:
Climate change causes increased thawing of the Arctic, essentially revealing an ice-free future
World powers, with Russia in the lead, take this development at face value and place a bet on what will happen next
Everyone else is scrambling to gain points in the process
The shift in the Arctic represents a literal sea change and has the potential to shift global balance of powers. Instead of attempting to stop the impacts of climate change, world powers essentially accept the end result and reconfigure their actions, assets, strategies and positions to benefit, or at least avoid loss.
It’s easy to dismiss this as another scene of geopolitical tensions. However, looking at Russo-Chinese ambitions to establish a Polar Silk Road show that there is much more than meets the eye. Of course, these developments are studied by multiple organizations. One notable example is the Belfer Center’s blog post on the topic, eloquently describing the dynamics of the changing Arctic.
Unlike many other geopolitical races for control, this one is primarily driven by Climate Change. If not for Climate Change, there wouldn’t be a shift in the availability of shipping lanes and resources, and there would likely not be much impetus to battle for control over something that is probably not going to happen.
Ah, great. Now you get the full picture. You’re still cold, though, and fending off real estate agents.
The Big Picture 🖼️
Seeing the race for the Arctic in the context of Climate Change helps us see a unique way our planet is changing, and more importantly, how human systems are reacting.
We are used to responding (and rightfully so) to climate change with the question of “what can we do to prevent it?” or asking “how can we adapt?” In a way, what is happening in the Arctic is in line with the latter, but the race that is afoot better fits a different question entirely, which is “assuming this will happen, what should we do to get ahead?”
As we continue to explore the reconfiguration of our world, this question will appear in many forms and variations. The dynamics of particular situations are… complex at best. Still, a few things will be apparent as we continue our journey:
No one is waiting for the climate to change. Rather, it seems many players are working hard to get ahead of the curve.
There is no “big conspiracy”. Rather, this reconfiguration is a result of many players reacting to the changing climate.
Climate Change’s role changes from one instance to another. In some cases, like in the Arctic, it is the driver of a change, and in others it is part of more complex feedback loops.
Like it or not, it’s happening.
To be clear, the changes in the Arctic are both disheartening and dangerous for our planet and our existence as a species, but it’s hard to deny that it is happening, and that an increasing number of countries, companies and people are beginning to adapt.
This is the reconfiguration of the Arctic.
That’s it for this time!
As always, if you have comments, disagreements, or a desire to throw tomatoes 🍅 at me - reach out! I would love to engage and discuss further!
Fantastic read and analysis on the situation in the arctic from a geopolitical and economic lens! These trends are counter productive to the battle on climate change. Similar examples can be found in agriculture and the energy sector