Too Early to Tell: A Meta-Thought About Epic Fury / Roaring Lion Operation
It's just too soon to know how the operation will impact anything, really
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I am not a geopolitical analyst and coverage of conflicts is mostly outside of my area of expertise (one might ask what is my area of expertise, but that’s another story for another day).
However, as I live within the range of Ballistic Missiles and spent the day mostly in a bomb shelter, doing the regular roundup seems a bit tone deaf and not very interesting.
So I thought I’d use this opportunity to say something about the flurry of geopolitical analyses that one can see over Substack and X (and hopefully never on LinkedIn) and the deluge that will come:
It’s way too early.
It’s tempting to start analyzing, pontificating and predicting:
What does it mean for the great power competition and China?
Will we see a new day in Iran?
Will there be another Lion-themed operation in 6 months?
Will Iran sign an agreement with the US?
But the truth is: We don’t really know. It’s way too soon to tell, and the chips are still falling.
Operation Rising Lion was considered a stellar military success. I remember the first few hours and how every one was sure we were done with Iran. I remember the post-war celebrations.
And yet, 8 months later, we're in another operation. It’s not to say we’re back to where we started, that’s probably not true (on all sides). However, it took a while to really understand the operation and put it into context.
My point is not that writers shouldn’t analyze or share thoughts. I do that all the time. On the contrary - we need the plurality of opinions and analyses.
But if I’ve learned anything from the past few years is that some things take time to play out and fully understand.
So, I would take a deep breath and try to wait for things to play out and reserve judgment until the operation is over.
Stay safe, and hopefully I will resume my usual armchair exploration soon.
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