Thumbwrestling for Iron Ore (The Roundup)
China thumbwrestles BHP for iron ore, france wants to shore up European supply chains + all the important stories you've missed (April 5, 2026)
š Welcome to A World Reconfigured - your guide to a world changed by climate, geopolitics and technology. I write about how climate change is creating a new world with new rules, and often cover topics like the āļøArctic, š¤·āāļøRare Earths and š»Data Centers.
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My Unsolicited Take:
This past week we celebrated Passover.
It was a strange one. Given the ongoing war, my wife and I marked the Seder quietly at home rather than with our usual big family gathering (or travel, if iām being honest).
On Passover we ask āMa Nishtanaā ā what has changed. For me, one big change over the past year and a half has been building this newsletter with you.
The world we live in is a bit of a hot mess, as they say, but I still think there are early signs of good news and reason for optimism just beyond the horizon.
It may be hard to believe, but despite many headwinds, renewables are still a thing, and keep growing. There are early signs that the West just might be able to rebuild, reshore and regain mineral independence, and for all the signs that the Arctic is becoming a proto-war zone, thereās much that is still working there.
So, I choose to remind myself every Passover that there are still good news and good things just over the horizon.
It is also a great opportunity to thank each and every one of you for reading, commenting, sharing, and generally helping me keep this going. A special thanks to my greatest supporter ā my wife Sarah.
Iāll be back to my usual shenanigans and trolling mood after the holiday. ātill then, hope you all have a great one!
~Arod
TL;DR
The Bigger Things
China thumbwrestles BHP for control over the iron ore market (someone will end up with a sore thumb)
Data Center Wars: Politicians find out they have limited control over things (when did they not)
The Smaller Things
Strait of Hormuz blues recap: coal and gas are the comeback kids (old kids on the block and other 90s references)
France wants to use a resilience clause in wind tenders to decarbonize and reduce Chinese reliance (hey I guess you CAN eat your cake and keep it whole)
In Other News: More implications of Epic Fury on energy, Japan is hungry for minerals and so much more
The Bigger Things
The biggest stories you probably missed:
China Thumbwresles BHP over Iron Market
What Happened? Bloomberg released a deep-dive this week on China's quiet battle with mining giant BHP over the iron ore market, in what I can only describe as a mineral version of thumbwrestling.
China imports ~70% of the world's seaborne iron ore but can't control the price. So, Beijing has been wrestling with the three major producers to change pricing, moving from a dollar-denominated price (set by producers) to a yuan-denominated one (set by China). BHP refused, and the relationship has hit a wall.
Why Care? š¤·āāļø Because this recent bout of thumbwrestling looking like a pricing war, but it is really a Chinese attempt to bend the Iron Ore market to its will. This is yet another attempt by Beijing to tilt the global balance of powers in its favor, trying to shift contracts from dollars to yuan.
China is already trying to expand yuan popularity in oil trade (thanks to Epic Fury). If it pulls this off in iron ore, itās another small but real step toward loosening the dollarās dominance in global trade.
My Take: āļø The thumbwrestle is interesting, but the real kicker is how China goes about this: Consolidating control with one entity named China Mineral Resource Group, which apparently can just tell mills what to do.
Data Center Wars: The Road Goes on Forever
What Happened? Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. AOC finally introduced their long-awaited federal moratorium bill on new data center construction:
While this moratorium is unlikely to become the law of the federal land, Maineās State House passed a bill banning data center builds until 2027.
At the same time, New Jersey's newly elected governor, who ran on limiting data centers and capping electricity prices, is facing yet another possible rate hike, after prices rose 20% this past year.
Meanwhile, new data centers keep getting announced globally, because the industry didn't get the memo (or threw it away).
Why Care? š¤·āāļø Because this string of event shows just how heated and chaotic the landscape is becoming. They also show just how limited Statesā control is over prices, and despite best intentions and campaign promises, thereās not a lot that can be done in the short term to alleviate peopleās economic burdens. The problem is - the short term is what matters politically.
My Take: āļø The chaotic flurry of weekly happenings is exactly why I called it the Data Center Wars.
The Smaller Things
The stories you should have on your radar:
Strait of Hormuz Blues: Coal & Gas are the Comeback Kids
What Happened: The war's energy ripples keep spreading:
Europe is weighing a return to emergency fuel restrictions;
Italy pushed its coal phase-out to 2038 and Germany is eyeing mothballed coal plants.
The US hit record natural gas export volumes, mostly to Asia.
And UK Energy Secretary Miliband is perhaps leaning toward approving new North Sea gas drilling off Aberdeen, reversing a ban that was central to Labour's energy platform.
Why Care? š¤·āāļø Because despite speculation (and some reporting) that countries are weighing moving towards renewables in the long term, right now many are focused on hydrocarbons as a source of security. Epic Fury goes to show that the path to renewables isnāt a straight line, if at all.
My Take: āļø I still think that in the long run, renewables are going to dominate, but you know what they say - in the long run weāre all dead.
France Wants to Boost Renewables AND Europe
What Happened: France announced 12 gigawatts of renewable energy tenders, mostly offshore wind, to reduce fossil fuel exposure. The tenders include a "Resilience" criterion designed to prioritize European components and limit Chinese ones.
Why Care? š¤·āāļø Because this is an interesting attempt for Europe to have it both ways: Decarbonize AND prevent further dependence on China. The resilience clause is trying to do something Europeans are not famous for: Leveraging demand to create excess supply of the right stuff.
My Take: āļø Europe gets a bad rep for being overbeaurocratic, slow and generally clueless, but itās clear that when European countries really want to do something, they can find the way to do so.
In Other News:
š° Iran War threatens Gulf petrostates' climate tech investments via Strait of Hormuz closure (I guess not a good time to ask them to fund my new startup)
š° ARENA funds five projects $13m for Australia's industrial decarbonisation (ok maybe it is a good time?)
š° U.S. Forest Service closes 57 wildfire research stations amid HQ move to Utah (ugh, you sure about that?)
š° ReElement, Mitsubishi Materials ink strategic investment deal to scale US rare earth and battery metal recycling and refining for more secure, lower-impact critical mineral supply chains (Minerals are big in Japan)
š° Climate investors spy big upside in Indiaās new grid-and-batteries-focused climate plan (thinking of starting Modi Venture Partners)
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See you next week!