A Tale of Two Summits (The Roundup)
Trump goes to Beijing, but first he meets President Lula, the Arctic is getting hot again + all the important stories you've missed (May 18, 2026)
👋 Welcome to A World Reconfigured - your guide to a world changed by climate, geopolitics and technology. I write about how climate change is creating a new world with new rules, and often cover topics like the ❄️Arctic, 🤷♂️Rare Earths and 💻Data Centers.
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My Unsolicited Take
What Was Not Discussed at the Summit
President Trump was busy this week: Iran, Beijing, Iran again, Greenland, Brazil. A lot happened in just a few days, but most attention was drawn to his visit to Beijing, with good reason. After all, the fate of the world is at stake.
You can find a barrage of commentaries. Some of them are very good. I particularly liked CfR’s brief. Most focused on things like trade, tariffs, and a host of other topics. I too am dedicating much time to the rare earths deal that was not reached.
But what I found most peculiar is the topic no one spoke of, especially not Trump and Xi: The Arctic.
Now, I know, you might think - this really isn’t that important. Trade, tariffs, Iran, and Taiwan are much more important. They are more pressing, I will concede, but the Arctic is a topic increasingly on everyone’s mind, with Trump himself repeatedly making China’s involvement in the Arctic a thing of import.
This past year, we’ve seen reports about China’s growing involvement in the region, including an overview of China’s efforts to map the seabed. And then there’s China’s Polar Silk Road, built with Russia’s aid and partnership:
As the US is working to rebuild its military presence in the region (see below Bigger Things), it has two things on its mind: Russia and China.
It is only a matter of time until the two will have to speak about the Arctic. I guess we’ll find out just how long.
Until that happens - enjoy this edition of the Roundup!
~Arod
TL;DR
The Bigger Things
Trump-Xi meeting ends without rare earth agreement (i could have helped tbh)
Pax Arctica: US eyes Greenland, Russia eyes Svalbard (can I also claim an island?)
The Smaller Things
Solar energy had a big week from Pakistan to Texas (hope solar travlled coach)
Trump-Lula summit was a bit forgotten (but equally important)
In Other News: Virginia signs PJM bill into law, US drivers are stuck with more expensive cars and other things!
The Bigger Things
The biggest stories you probably missed:
Trump-Xi Meeting Ends Without a Rare Earths Deal
What Happened? Presidents Trump and Xi finally met in a long awaited summit. The summit took place amidst very low expectations (I mean, not fighiting is something, right?). And even by those standards, it seems very little was achieved. CfR President Mike Froman said it best:
We are, officially, “not fighting,” which is better than the alternative, but the form and substance of the meeting merit a close read.
One thing in particular did not happen: An extension to the Busan agreement. The agreement was signed last year and marked a sort of truce on tariffs and rare earths. Set to expire in November, there was speculation that the sides will annouce its extention. Well, nope.
Why Care? 🤷♂️ Because this agreement was supposed to be a slam dunk. It not happening means that China is keeping Critical Minerals close to its vest, and not willing to make any concessions so quickly. The most the US got is a vague promise to address concerns on the topic.
My Take: ✍️ I still think the agreement will eventually be extended, but the fact that it didn’t in this summit was telling. And even if the deal extends, it’s unlikely to solve anything structural.
Pax Arctica: Military Bases, Parades and Icebreakers
What Happened? The US opened talks with Denmark and Greenland on three new monitoring bases in southern Greenland and signed a 3.5-billion-dollar contract for five Coast Guard Arctic Security Cutter icebreakers to beef up polar patrols.
Meanwhile, Russia held a Victory Day parade with youth in uniforms and a cannon salute on Norway’s demilitarized Svalbard.
Why Care? 🤷♂️ Because the Arctic never gets boring!
As I keep saying, the Greenland saga is nowhere near over. As you may recall from the brief period of time Greenland was popular, the US can build new bases thanks to the 1951 US-Greenland agreement. The issue here is treating them US soil, which Denmark and Greenland may not be super happy about.
That’s not all: The US is attempting to rebuild its aging icebreaker fleet, and Russia is slowly but surely upping the ante in Svalbard. The parade was seen by several analysts as an attempt to normalize a quasi‑military presence in the archipelago.
My Take: ✍️ Well, never a dull moment. Temperatures are still low, but we have the hallmarks of a great Cold War-esque movie, with Russia continuing to destabilize the region while the US is trying to regain its foothold after years of neglect.
The Smaller Things
The stories you should have on your radar:
Solar’s Big Week: From Texas to Pakistan
What Happened: Solar energy had a globetrottin’ week, hailing victories from Pakistan to Texas. First, the Energy Information Administration expects utility‑scale solar to generate more electricity than coal in ERCOT in 2026, roughly 78 vs. 60 billion kWh, in the state that built its brand on fossil fuels.
Second, after somewhat insulating itself from the impacts of the war in Iran through Solar, Pakistan announced an aggressive clean‑power roadmap to achieve 95% renewable electricity by 2040, with milestones of 60% clean by 2030 and 50% renewables by 2035.
Why Care? 🤷♂️ Because Solar isn’t going anywhere, and the crisis in Hormuz helped some realize the benefits of Solar power. It looks like Pakistan is going full Solar, and it is only growing emboldened by the minute. Sightline associate Guy Cohen noted this great chart that tells Pakistan’s love affair with solar energy:
The problem, Cohen notes, is the increased reliance on China. With Beijing controlling most of the solar supply chain, there is little ability to avoid reliance on China if you’re looking for a sunny future.
And Texas? Solar is by far not the biggest generator of energy, but it is giving coal a run for its money.
My Take: ✍️ It would be very interesting to see how Pakistan’s dependence on China reshapes the region vis-a-vis its rival, India. Too early to tell, but we might see Chinese-Pakistani relations tighten as China is becoming too essential for Pakistan.
The Summit we All Forgot About
What Happened: While we were all very busy with the Trump-Xi summit, another meeting went almost entirely unnoticed: Trump’s meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Lula da Silva.
Trump and Lula spent three hours at the White House circling around critical minerals and tariffs: Lula arrived with a newly approved Brazilian critical‑minerals bill and told Trump Brazil’s rare earths are open to any investor willing to process them inside Brazil, while pointedly refusing to choose the US over China.
Why Care? 🤷♂️ Because we often forget that Brazil has major mineral deposits and much potential to upend current mineral geopolitics. And yet, Lula was not interested in picking sides, which will make Western mineral independence efforts much more difficult.
My Take: ✍️ It’s open season for minerals, and this has the potential to go either way: US and Brazil might become very close partners, or Lula’s unwillingness to block Chinese operations in Brazil will incur Trump’s wrath. As always, we’ll see what happenes!
In Other News:
📰 Spanberger signs Dominion-backed Virginia grid cost bills, shifting more data-center upgrade costs off households but leaving details to regulators (I’ll take my large DC elsewhere!)
📰 UK halves Green Climate Fund pledge, dropping from top donor spot and triggering concerns over impacts on $20bn GCF project pipeline and wider climate finance signalling (oh great just what Starmer needs right now)
📰 Carney signals potential softening of Canada’s 2030 emissions target as he unveils power strategy to double electricity by 2050 (it’s easier to summon Thor)
📰 Fervo’s IPO pops nearly 40% on first Nasdaq trading day, funding next‑gen geothermal build‑out and prospective East Coast plants within a decade (not investment advice)
📰 War-fueled gas spike drives Europe’s pivot to cheap Chinese EVs while U.S. buyers are stuck with pricier models (drive baby drive?)
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See you next week!