Future of the Arctic Part II: Arctic Reconfigured
4 Scenarios for a Reconfigured Future, part II
This is Pt. 6 of the “It’s Getting Hotter in the Arctic” series. Take a look at the previous episodes of our series: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V and Part VI. Ice guaranteed! 🧊
Our journey throughout the frozen tundras of the Arctic is coming to a close.
In Part I of this series conclusion, we have introduced our methodology and explored two of the Arctic scenarios. Now, it’s time to set our sights on the other two!
As a reminder, our exploration of Arctic futures includes four scenarios with two axes of change: Climate change and global geopolitics.
In our previous part, we have explored possible futures that show what might happen if we cannot reign down climate change. Now, let’s set our sights to possible futures where climate change had a limited effect on our planet.
Yes, I know it’s not likely. Still, entertain me!
Green Resource Wars:
In our third scenario, humanity managed to stave off climate change’s worst impacts, yet nations still act like school children:
It's 2050, and you're monitoring a swarm of surveillance drones patrolling the disputed Lomonosov Ridge from the Nuuk Global Resource Command Center. The world has managed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, but this climate victory has triggered an unprecedented scramble for the Arctic's critical minerals—particularly Barentsium, the miracle element discovered in 2031 on the Barents Sea floor that revolutionized quantum computing and fusion energy. On your display, you track the movements of Russia's Arktika Resource Corporation vessels as they edge closer to the Norwegian-controlled extraction zone. Meanwhile, the Indian Arctic Initiative's ice-hardened ships escort a precious Barentsium shipment along the Northern Sea Route, carefully avoiding the militarized zones established after the controversial Greenland Partitioning Accords of 2035 divided the island between American and Russian control. Your mission is clear but nearly impossible: prevent a figurative (economic) war from turning into a literal (military) one.
Key Operating Dynamics:
Okay, let’s look at what’s happening in this scenario:
How Did We Get Here?
In this scenario, here’s how we got from 2025 to 2050, i.e. what happened that led to the Green Resource Wars:
While we want to keep things short here, I think it’s worthwhile to explore further what happened. Check out the footnote for a lengthier explanation of this scenario.1
Who Wins, Who Loses?
👍Winners include: Resource rich countries (Russia, Norway, i’m looking at you!👀); Tech and security companies; Indigenous communities with leverage (hey they now have their own military corporation…); Large countries with geopolitical power and resources (hey India, how’s it going?)
👎Losers include us, of course (what else…); smaller countries that lack access to the Arctic; the Arctic Council and international institutions; natural ecosystems subjected to rapid and aggressive mining (and lots of animals, too)
Clues From Today:
🔎 Russia's Arctic Forum 2025 in Murmansk emphasized Moscow's strategy to expand economic and military presence in the region, with Putin highlighting the Northern Sea Route as a key global trade corridor
🔎 Norway is looking to award seabed mining block licenses in 2025 in the Arctic region.
🔎 India has established a strategic partnership with Russia on the Northern Sea Route for commercial shipping and shipbuilding.
🔎 Brazil is positioning itself as a major player in the critical mineral space, growing in importance and influence.
Arctic Commons
Okay, okay, here’s the last scenario. This time, we’ve hit the jackpot: A climate disaster was averted, and we’ve also managed to keep our global institutions powerful (Don’t know about you, I think it’s a good thing overall)
It's 2050, and you're monitoring vessel traffic from the Arctic Council Coordination Center in Tromsø. Through the reinforced windows, you can see seasonal ice still covering much of the Arctic Ocean. You still remember that oil spill of 2028 that led, against all odds, to more collaboration between countries instead of less. The Arctic Council still retains its binding powers and its multinational military force, established in 2032, the same year when we have realized we actually have a chance to stave off climate change, if we just stop being selfish all the time. It worked. Your job is to make sure countries stick to their commitments, that scientists can freely conduct their missions and that the Arctic stays frosty.
Key Operating Dynamics:
Let’s take a look at the key dynamics of this scenario that are at play:
How Did We Get Here?
In this scenario, from 2025 to 20250 there were several happenings that took place:
Check out the footnote for more on how we got here.2
Who Wins, Who Loses?
👍 Winners include all of us; Arctic ecosystems and their inhabitants; Indigenous communities that are now “protected” by the Arctic Council; Scientists and researchers, who now can enjoy global support for their work; The Arctic Council, who’re now the boss 😎.
👎 Losers include commercial companies that “drill baby drill”; national militaries, who have one less thing to fight over; Nations in the habit of strongarming smaller countries.
Clues From Today:
🔎 The Arctic Council is still pretty much around. Despite the habit of kicking them around, they still pretty much run things.
🔎 Indiginous communities are gaining ground in establishing a voice and representation, as seen by Finland’s establishment of the Sami Climate Council
🔎 US and Russia are… collaborating? 🤷♂️
🔎 UN is still trying to get nations to collaborate, as will be discussed in May 2025’s Climate & SDGs conference
Finishing Touches
Our journey through the Arctic is coming to a close. I had fun, I admit.
My fascination with the Arctic started with a random story about Russia’s military expanding its presence in the region, and I couldn’t figure out why. I thought it was just a piece of Ice🧊. Oh, I couldn’t have been more wrong!
Throughout the past couple of months, we saw how the Arctic is on its way to become one of the world’s more unstable and contested regions, with once-collaborative countries becoming increasingly competitive.
If you have been following this series of deep-dives, like me, you probably have learned a few things:
The Arctic is top of mind for many countries. Many of these countries don’t even have a territorial claim to the region, and are even thousands of miles away 👮
No one is waiting around. Countries, companies and even non-profits understand that the ice is going away, and have started to flex their muscles to take a prime position 💪
The Arctic is home to so many natural resources that it’s impossible to ignore, many of which are critical for advanced industries and the climate transition 🔋
Shipping lanes are some of the biggest forces pulling countries to fight over the Arctic 🚢
In the Arctic, the reconfiguration is already here, and it’s here to stay. If you’re looking for evidence, just look for the Polar Silk Road.
There’s a lot more to explore and much more to learn, but for now, we can take a step back and reflect on our journey.
Arctic, Reconfigured
The Arctic is emblematic of the Reconfiguration: A strong vector of climate change that leads to systemic shifts in geopolitics, trade, research and practically any other aspect of our modern, interconnected world. More importantly, it's a shift that is causing many of the participating actors to radically change their behavior and position.
The region is not the only evidence of the Reconfiguration, but it is probably the poster child of how peculiar and unfamiliar our world is becoming.
What will become of the Arctic? The future is anyone’s guess, but we did try to create a few scenarios that might help paint possible outcomes. Understanding the future of the Arctic is not only interesting, but also important:
It gives us a window into how our world is changing and what we can do about it
It helps us understand a dynamic we can look for in other places, outside of the region
It delivers an organizing framework, helping us make sense of what otherwise seems like a bewildering set of random plays and events
The harsh conditions and isolation of the Arctic makes the Reconfiguration more visible and noticeable. The Arctic is one of the last frontiers left on our planet (along with the high seas), forcing actors to make decisions and chart a clear course. In a way, the Arctic is the ideal Reconfiguration sandbox.
Arctic Futures are powerful because they rest on an extreme set of starting conditions. They remind us our actions have visible consequences. It is precisely at a place where we can feel powerless that we find we have actual agency to reshape global systems.
Against this backdrop of extreme futures, it is worth concluding our journey with a question: Will we collaborate and make the Arctic a model of human triumph and prosperity, or will we use the Arctic as a theater of war? The choice is ours.
At any rate, I guess we’ll see you on the frontlines and find out!
That’s it for the Arctic Series. Thank you for reading and being partners and true Climate Globetrotters. Next up, we will travel to a different part of the world, where we will take a sip of coffee and look at how the Reconfiguration is roasting a new kind of brew 🍵
Before you leave, make sure to:
See you next time!
2025-2030: Climate Action & Early Competition
Global climate initiatives successfully limit warming trajectory to 1.5°C. Arctic nations increase military presence while China launches its "Polar Silk Road." Arctic Council begins fracturing over resource access disputes.
2030-2035: The Barentsium Discovery & Arctic Council Collapse
Discovery of Barentsium in the Barents Sea in 2031 triggers resource rush. Nations form militarized National Resource Corporations. Arctic Council officially dissolves in 2033 after failed emergency summit, replaced by competing bilateral agreements.
2035-2040: The Greenland Crisis
Disputed Greenland independence referendum leads to military standoff between US and Russia. The Greenland Partitioning Accords of 2035 divide the island between American and Russian control, narrowly averting war but establishing dangerous precedent.
2040-2045: Formation of Resource Blocs
Three competing blocs emerge: Western Alliance (US, Canada, EU), Eastern Partnership (Russia, China), and Southern Coalition (India, Brazil). Military incidents in the Lomonosov Ridge nearly trigger war twice.
2045-2050: Permanent Crisis Management
Nuuk Global Resource Command Center established as neutral monitoring facility after 2047 Barents Sea Crisis brings world to brink of war. Uneasy equilibrium maintained through mutual deterrence as NRCs compete for remaining Barentsium deposits.
2025-2030: The Arctic Environmental Disaster
A catastrophic oil spill in the Barents Sea in 2028 forced adversarial powers to coordinate emergency response, demonstrating the inadequacy of fragmented governance and leading to the Arctic Emergency Summit of 2030.
2030-2035: Reformation of the Arctic Council
The landmark Arctic Preservation Treaty transformed the Arctic Council, granting it binding authority and establishing the multinational Arctic Protection Force in 2032 to enforce environmental regulations.
2035-2040: Climate Stabilization Breakthrough
Technological breakthroughs in carbon capture and renewable energy in 2037 made the 1.5°C warming target achievable, shifting focus from resource extraction to preservation across the Arctic region.
2040-2045: Arctic Commons Framework
The Framework established protected zones covering 40% of the Arctic Ocean while allowing sustainable development in designated areas, with indigenous communities gaining significant representation in all decision-making bodies.
2045-2050: The Arctic Model
The Arctic governance model became a template for international cooperation in other regions, with the Coordination Center in Tromsø hosting representatives from over 30 nations committed to environmental protection.