News, Reconfigured: March 31
Taking Greenland, Saving a Glacier, Predicting the Weather
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Hey there Climate Globetrotters!👋
We’ve got a fun edition today, where we will see what the US Administration is up to in Greenland, we’ll try to figure out how to save a glacier and talk about AI weather prediction.
Hope you enjoy this edition, and as always - If you like this Substack, please share with your friends:
On Today’s Agenda:
🧭 Frontier Watch: That Greenland Thing Isn’t Going Away
🎪 Globetrotting: Future of the Arctic Part I
🌊 Ripple Reports:
How to Save a Glacier
Climate Wars Ahead?
💻 Tech, Reconfigured:
Happened in Tech: Aardvark Weather
Startup Shoutout: REplace
🧭 Frontier Watch
Major shifts that caught our attention in the past two weeks.
That Greenland Thing is Not Going Away
I said it before and I will say it again: It’s getting hotter in the Arctic, and the temperatures keep rising, in more ways than one.
As we can see from a series of announcements and events, Greenland is not going to be left alone for the foreseeable future.
JD Vance Goes to Pituffik
We all remember Trump’s recent collection of statements about Greenland, which include his famous “I think we’re going to get it” statement made during his address to Congress and, well, whatever this is:
Making matters even more tense than they already were, Vice President JD Vance decided to join his wife, Second Lady Usha Vance, and NatSec Adviser Mike Waltz to a cultural visit to Greenland. Apparently, none of them were officially invited, drawing the ire of both Greenland and Denmark, who saw this as a provocation. To ease tensions, VP Vance changed course and decided to visit US Space Force Base Pituffik. Greenland thought it was less weird, so all is okay, I guess.
Apparently, it was not okay, with VP Vance ending up giving Denmark a talking to. Denmark did not appreciate the tone.
Vladimir Putin Join the Party
**Everyone: We had enough drama for one week**
**Putin: Hold my beer**
Not a man to lose an opportunity when he sees one, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, decided to chime in and express support of President Trump’s Arctic ambitions, “recognizing” the long roots of US interest in Greenland. Putin, in effect, gave the US the thumbs up👍 for its claim to Greenland. Yes, the same Greenland that President Trump wants to take to protect from… Russia. Yeah, I know 🤷♂️
And if that wasn’t enough, President Trump reminded us again he just wants Greenland.
So Who Cares?
Well, Greenlanders for once.
Aside from them, I should note that as always, climate change is at play, as it is in the Arctic writ large. Sure, I do believe there’s geostrategic positioning involved, but to me this feels mostly about control of future natural resources reserves (of which Greenland has plenty).
The Reconfiguration isn’t about explaining every step of the way, but rather about charting a course, a course that starts with permafrost thaw and ice🧊 melt and ends with, maybe, Arctic land grabs. The unfolding of this story shows how climate change is reconfiguring geopolitics.
While Greenland is a notable example given the players involved, we can and should expect more similar situations, where climate change reshapes geopolitics, whether due to shortages (e.g., droughts) or an apparent abundance (e.g., natural resources).
This dynamic will likely create additional instability and create more “theaters” for global competition. It will disrupt trade, global economic systems and prospects of global collaboration on research, something we desperately need to avoid being underwater in a few decades. This does not bode well for an already fragmented and polarized world.
So, Greenland may be the first act in a new era of climate-influenced geopolitics. It certainly won’t be the last.
🎪 Globetrotting
Last week we have started to wrap up our journey throughout the Arctic with a look into what the future of the region might be. Our exploration of the future uses a Scenario Planning/Analysis approach and presents four potential scenarios that could take place.
In part I, we have explored two of these scenarios, while next week we will conclude our Arctic journey with the last two scenarios (and a surprise!).
Take a look here:
🌊 Ripple Reports
The Reconfiguration is not always about making giant waves, but sometimes about making smaller ripples. Let’s take a look at some of the more subtle signals of the Reconfiguration:
How to Save a Glacier. It may sound like Science Fiction, but there is a real effort to try and save glaciers. Thanks to the the Arete Glacier Initiative, created by MIT and Dartmouth, groups of scientists are working on crazy (good) projects to prevent large glaciers (like the Doomsday Glacier) from collapsing and prevent rampant sea-level rise. Ideas include refreezing water or deploying reflective materias. Fun stuff! (reported by MIT Technology Review)
Climate Wars Ahead? Two pieces caught my attention this time:
COP30 Chief Exective, Ana Toni, has voiced a somewhat nuanced warning to countries raising their defence budgets not to foresaken climate funding. Toni has called on governments to see climate as part of human security and warned that reducing efforts to address climate concerns will have a negative impact on global stability (reported by TheGuardian)
Sweden’s Elite Forces are training for an Arctic War. This once neutral country, Sweden, is preparing for conflict with Russia, and the Arctic is expected to be the battle theater of choice. (reported by WSJ)
My take: We tend to think of climate change induced conflict as a war that breaks out from resources being unavailable. But what if an incoming conflict is a result of too many natural resources suddenly becoming too available?
👩💻Tech, Reconfigured
Innovators, inventors, and explorers building tools for our changing world
Happened in Tech
Aardvark, the Weather Version. Traditional weather prediction relies heavily on crunching numbers by using supercomputers and ingesting ridiculous amounts of data. Aardvark Weather is breaking away with this approach with great promise, a new study claims.
Using AI in this context is not new (👋 DeepMind), but Aardvark’s model presents a paradigm shift (or so they claim) and a breakaway from number-crunching towards using one machine learning model, using less inputs and computing power to yield better results. This means essentially replacing the entire weather forecasting pipeline.
So what, you ask? Well, Aardvark’s approach can radically democratize weather forcasting, making powerful predictions available at your desktop (anyone still have those?) and charting a new course for an AI-based weather prediction and modeling, allowing companies in the future to conduct reliable predictions without relying on expensive, high-end services (reported by Axios).
Startup Shoutout
REplace:
You're an energy developer, or a seasoned investor looking to get in on renewables. You’ve been around the block but you’re not sure how to find the perfect project. In this business, finding a good spot is like finding a needle in a haystack, and it costs a lot of 💰💰💰.
Normally, you’d spend a lot of time and energy to find a new spot, ask your friends if they know a good project (they often don’t know) or just give up.
Well, it’s your lucky day. Meet REplace.
REplace has developed a software that identifies the optimal locations for renewable energy projects based on ROI and development risk with just a single click. Whether you’re a developer looking to find a brand new spot, or an investor looking to buy an existing project, REplace got your back.
REplace helps both developers and investors to get more bang for their buck by giving you…
State of the art algos that help you analyze land 10x better than GIS
Up-to-date data about possible projects you can buy or invest in
Ability to conduct in-depth due diligence to evaluate whether a land is for you otr not
A service to help you with your transaction
REplace couldn't be more timely, with about 80% of renewable energy development projects failing due to poor site selection, resulting in billions of dollars lost annually and slowing down the energy transition. REplace helps key challenges developers and investors like you face, giving them the ability to invest, buy or develop your own, and from the comfort of your laptop (which is pretty cool, if you ask me).
In my view, REplace shows how software can support the Reconfiguration and even accelerate it, improving developers’ financial prospects and improving overall shot to transition from fossil fuels, as well as help improve the renewables market. The Reconfiguration needs problem-solvers, and REplace can certainly be one!
Check them out here.
That's a Wrap, Climate Globetrotters! 🌍✈️
We've reached the end of our expedition into the Reconfiguration. Hope you enjoyed the ride! Here's what's on the horizon:
🧊 Next week: Part 7 of our Arctic series, where we will explore the final two scenarios of the region’s future and wrap up our Arctic journey!
📅 In two weeks: Your next "News, Reconfigured" dispatch lands in your inbox.
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