👋 Welcome to A World Reconfigured - your guide to a world changed by climate, geopolitics and technology. I write about how climate change is creating a new world with new rules, and often cover topics like the ❄️Arctic, 🤷‍♂️Rare Earths and 💻Data Centers.

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TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• G7 vs. Chinese Minerals Law (put your hands in the air)

• Data Center Wars: FERCed (someone brough the feds)

The Smaller Things

• Germany tries to resist the Second China Shock (it wasn’t a shock to me)

• Bonn Climate Talks stall, Frontier raises lots of cash (meh on climate)

• Canada gives Italy prime access to Minerals (Carney is the G7’s cool kid)

In Other News: Rare Earths deals, Solar overpowers gas and so much more

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

G7 vs. China’s Minerals Regulations

What Happened? Well, it’s never boring on the Minerals frontier.

This week, G7 leaders met in Évian and unveiled a critical minerals declaration and a new Resilience and Production Alliance, pledging to cut reliance on any single supplier for rare earths and magnets below 60% by 2030. The group pointed to 195 projects launched since the start of 2026, worth €64B in investment.

Meanwhile, China unveiled sweeping new mineral regulations two days earlier, handing the State Council broad authority over exploration, mining, and trade of any mineral it deems "strategic." The rules also lay explicit legal grounds for retaliation against countries that restrict China’s mineral supply chains.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because both parties are done playing nice. Western attempts to reduce dependency on China are met with expected resistance and retaliation. Beijing, if anything, is setting the stage for such retaliation. With China being a major supplier of a host of critical minerals, one might wonder why the new regulation focuses much on stockpiling. The answer, I believe, might be pretext to future export controls under the guise of national security needs.

My Take: ✍️ Declarations are nice, but there’s a question of execution. The declaration sounds more aspirational than practical, and while I agree an ambitious goal is a must, there’s a question about how will G7 countries get there. It’s too early to tell, but I think there’s a big question on the ability of Western countries to actually build the necessary infrastructure. I hope I’m wrong.

China, on the other hand, just goes for it and shapes reality the best way it knows how - with strict regulation.

Data Center Wars: FERCed

What Happened? US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) released a landmark publication, putting six regional transmission operators and independent system operators on notice.

FERC asked them to either justify or rewrite their tariffs within 60 days, structured around five reform areas:

• Faster transmission study processes

• Transparency to prevent cost-shifting onto ratepayers

• Rules for co-location and behind-the-meter generation

• New flexible-load transmission services; and

• Process for studying generation tied to nearby large loads.

Each operator also owes a 30-day report on whether it has enough generation lined up to serve current and future demand.

Rather than write a single national rulebook, FERC pushed each grid operator to figure out its own path toward letting large loads come online without forcing massive new buildouts.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because it’s about damn time. FERC’s move comes at a time of great turmoil and a massive backlash against Data Centers. It’s too early to tell what will be the precise impact, but the areas for reforms issued by FERC seem to touch on the right things. They also force large, slow and conservative organizations like RTOs and ISOs to adopt new technologies to maximize existing infrastructure. This is good news for energy startups.

My Take: ✍️ FERC is trying to do a lot, and I’ll be on the lookout for RTO/ISO attempts to fight the commission. I would also be interested seeing how politics play out on this front, with high stakes and high feelings all around.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Germany Tries to Resist the China Shock 2.0

What Happened: Germany's 50Hertz picked a Siemens Energy-led consortium to build a 2GW offshore wind converter platform, the first of its scale to be built almost entirely in Germany. A second platform is under negotiation.

The deal comes as Berlin looks to shield its wind supply chain from cheaper Chinese competitors, going as far as cancelling existing Chinese contracts.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Germany is actively working to prevent China from hollowing out yet another industry, after decimating the German solar industry. There is a broader, Europe-wide resistance to, and fear of the Second China Shock. If the first China Shock in the early 2000s focused on consumer goods and low-grade clothing, the second one is more focused on advanced manufacturing of Solar Panels, EVs, Robotics and more.

If the first China Shock decimated the US manufacturing base, then the second one will likely hit Europe’s heavy industries hard, if they let it. After years of complacency, Germany is trying to fight back.

My Take: ✍️ I dunno. On the one hand, this is a good step in the direction, but Germany will need to pony up a lot more than EUR 300M. The bigger question is what is Europe’s plan to deal with multifrontal assult on its industrial base? Pure protectionism might not cut it.

Climate Meh: Bonn Talks Stuck, Frontier Raises Loads of Money for Carbon Removal

What Happened: Two weeks of UN climate talks in Bonn ended in what negotiators themselves called "gridlock," with countries failing to agree on key adaptation finance and emissions-cutting text, punting both, under the UNFCCC's "Rule 16," to COP31 in Antalya this November.

Meanwhile, Frontier, the Stripe-founded carbon removal buyers' coalition, raised $915 million in new commitments from Stripe, Google, Shopify, Salesforce, H&M, and new entrant Anthropic, doubling its total purchasing pledge to $1.8 billion to support the most promising removal technologies toward gigaton scale.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because climate action is not linear or consistent. You win some, you lose some. It seems like the current state of affairs in diplomacy is not looking too bright, while the private market shows tangible progress.

My Take: ✍️ I’d be on the lookout for next year’s Bonn climate talks, once we (unforuntely) feel the wrath of El-Nino.

Canada Lets Italy Get Prime Access to its Minerals

What Happened: On the sidelines of the G7 in Évian, Canadian PM Mark Carney offered Italy priority access to Canada's critical mineral reserves, with Giorgia Meloni signaling Italy's intent to collaborate on stockpiling. The move builds on Eni's ~C$100M investment in Nouveau Monde Graphite's Matawinie project and Italy's membership in Canada's Critical Minerals Production Alliance.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Carney is staying true to his word, working hard to turn Canada into a middle power using Canada’s natural resources (which are now in high demand). I wrote about this before:

Carney’s efforts are starting to pay off, with more and more middle powers countries courting Canada in specific fields, like Critical Minerals.

My Take: ✍️ Love him or hate him, Carney is not resting on his laurels. I for once am a big fan of Carney’s work on the world stage (for the most part) and think his work to help Canada find its place in a post US period might just work.

In Other News:

📰 Solar power now outsupplying gas on California’s grid most days as panel buildout pushes utility-scale solar generation ahead of gas in the year’s first five months (darn what am I going to do with all them turbines!)

📰 UK and Japan line up an £18b clean‑energy pact anchored by up to £9b in Japanese capital for 5.9 GW of UK floating offshore wind, marketed as enough juice for 8m homes (i am selling new turbines if anyone wants them)

📰 India’s monsoon starts almost 40% below normal as El Niño threatens crops, construction and industrial output (not funny tbh)

📰 Spain mulls support for solar manufacturers as oversupply and negative power prices squeeze domestic industry (should have applied for it earlier)

📰 Ucore, Sumitomo ink rare earths supply pact to feed Louisiana refinery and channel magnet materials into Japan’s high-end manufacturing chain (big in Japan)

📰 Pentagon grants conditional $500m loan to Phoenix Tailings for US ‘Freedom Facility’ rare earth midstream plant targeting 2028 startup as backbone of Western mine-to-magnet supply chain (I am selling rare earths as well if you’re interested)

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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See you next week!

👋 Welcome to A World Reconfigured - your guide to a world changed by climate, geopolitics and technology. I write about how climate change is creating a new world with new rules, and often cover topics like the ❄️Arctic, 🤷‍♂️Rare Earths and 💻Data Centers.

If you happened to receive this email from a friend, please consider subscribing. If you’re already a part of this community, I’d love it if you could recommend it to a friend.

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My Unsolicited Take

Lots happened while I was (kinda) away

Well, I was away for a while, busy with life and other things.

I’ve also been doing a lot of public speaking on minerals over the past few weeks, mostly engaging entrepreneurs and investors in our local ecosystem, trying to convey what I see on the world stage, and what innovators should do with it. I’ll share more in the coming weeks as I finish a few other stage related obligations. In the meantime, here’s me at a panel on Critical Minerals during Energy Tech Week:

While I was away, a lot happened: The minerals race is heating up; the Arctic continued to militarize and private markets are still trying to figure out what to do about SpaceX.

Like always, I tried to give you a taste of some of the interesting things I’m seeing out there on a few tracks I’m following.

And while I was away, I’ve been thinking on how to improve my coverage and this Substack to make sure you all keep getting the best I can give you. Stay tuned for more!

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• The minerals race is getting much hotter (should I bring sunblock)

• Data Center Wars: Texas governor announces directive against data centers (things are that bad huh)

The Smaller Things

• Clean energy had another great week (I should consider opening a PV factory, too!)

• UK wants to build a climate time machine (can they build a political one too?)

In Other News: PJM congestions, Chinese electric trucks and so much more

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

The International Race for Minerals Heats Up Again

What Happened? Ugh, the international race for minerals is heating up again.

After the long awaited Trump-Xi summit that amounted for very little on the minerals front, trouble is brewing over the horizon:

• Despite the Trump Administration’s ask, China reaffirmed rare earth export controls and limits for Japan

• Japan kind-of knew it was coming, and decided to invest in a brand new processing facility

• The US has added a bunch of Chinese firms (BYD, CATL and others) to its naughty list, which has nothing to do with minerals per se, but will likely result in a rare earth response by China

• China created more stringent enforcement protocols for rare earths, putting the screws on suppliers so they will not dare defy Beijing’s export control

• Indonesia, in a rare show of regulatory force, has seized 390 tonnes of rare earths that were shipped to an unknown destination. While this sounds like a fight against smuggling, Indonesia’s history suggests Jakarta is sending a signal: We can.

Finally, the US House of Representatives has passed this week the DOMINANCE ACT, which sets to coordinate US policy, create a special Critical Minerals advisor to the President and more. Luckily for you NotebookLM spells out the major provisions:

It was only a matter of time until Congress stepped into the Critical Minerals race, but the new provision, if it were to become law, will provide much needed coordination in the Federal government, but won’t actually change the landscape. Still, it’s a welcome development.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the minerals race isn’t going anywhere, whether or not the Busan Agreement will be extended or not. It is quite evident that Critical Minerals are the new weapon of the decade, used by China as a way to exert power on the global stage, and the focus of coordinated action by Western, LATAM and ASEAN countries.

Over the next several years, we should expect that Critical Minerals will be a fixed feature of industrial, international and innovation policy in the US, the EU and other major countries.

My Take: ✍️ I would look at how this heating race affects the mineral majors and how middle powers like Canada, Brazil and Australia will leverage the need to diversify to their own posture.

My bet, though, is on Japan. Japan has shown it gets to work and fast with a host of moves in response to China’s ban, including a JV with Lynas, its famous Deep-Sea experiment and now the new processing plant. Japan is really heads down working.

Data Center Wars: Et Tu, Texas?

What Happened? Just how unpopular Data Centers are in the US, you ask? So much so that Texas (!) Governor Gregg Abbott issued a directive to state agencies to protect consumers from Data Center-related costs:

The directive aims at reducing electrical bills, ensuring Data Centers pay their way to infrastructure upgrades, ensuring water usage efficiency, repealing excess incentives and more.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Texas is bellwether for how bad things are for Data Centers in the US. Texas is not particularly known for its regulatory burden, and yet Governor Abbott’s letter shows just the opposite.

On second thought, it shouldn’t be a surprise. Despite the Trump Administration’s overwhelming support of Data Centers and AI, Data Center buildout is an easy political target due to just how unpopular they are in the US (I recommend Heatmap News’s excellent coverage). Politicians across the political spectrum are weighing in on Data Centers, and mostly not in their favor.

My Take: ✍️ I expect this situation to persist. The debate is complex, and I am not an energy, water or compute expert. But I don’t think it matters. It’s not about whether Data Centers cause issues, rather that the American public thinks they do. With the Midterms just around the corner, I expect this topic to continue to bubble up and reshape both local and federal elections.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Clean energy had another great week

What Happened: Clean energy had another good week in general:

• New report shows that Solar passed Coal in total electricity supplied in the US for the first time in May 2026:

• QCells opened its new solar panel manufacturing facility in Georgia, effectively doubling the US’s industrial capacity when it comes to PVs. This is the US’s first and only vertically integrated facility for solar panels.

• The Trump Administration dropped its appeal of a court decision overturning a permitting freeze announced in an EO on Trumpo’s first day in office, bringing Wind Energy back. Well, kind of.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because despite the current Administration’s best efforts, clean energy in the US is still a thing, and continues to be a thing. Each news is a bit different in scope and importance, but all lead to the conclusion that there’s much momentum, still, behind clean energy in the US, from Geothermal to Solar to Wind.

My Take: ✍️ The QCells announcement is worth a second look: This is not about energy capacity, but rather manufacturing capacity. China is the undisputed leader in PV manufacturing, effectively dominating 80% of the supply chain. Expected to double industrial capacity, the new QCells site may not break China’s hold over PVs, but it will give a good fight, with 3.3GW of capacity across the Ingots, Wafers, Modules and Cells.

Europe should be particularly interested, given its attempts to resist the Second China Shock, and PVs are a big part of those.

The UK wants to build Europe’s biggest climate time machine

What Happened: A new partnership by several UK-based companies, called UnionDAC, has announced intentions to build a new, gargantuan facility that will serve as Europe’s largest Direct Air Capture facility, dwarfing others. The new facility will suck 60,000 tonnes of CO2 annually from the ambient air by 2032. DAC is often dubbed a climate time machine given its theoretical ability to “turn back time” when it comes to emissions.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because if successful, it will be a great demonstration that DAC works at scale, and is an affirmation of the Labor government’s commitment to scaling climate technologies (even though it’s not very popular these days).

On its own, the plant will not solve the UK’s Net Zero target problems,1 but it can help pave the way for additional facilities. Still, DAC has many critics, with some commentators calling it Greenwashing or a distraction from “real” solutions.

My Take: ✍️ The real threat to UnionDAC and the UK’s Net Zero ambitions is politics, as usual. With ReformUK’s recent wins, policies they oppose might get the boot, and as you may guess, RUK is not a big fan of climate policies. Can UnionDAC survive UK politics? I guess we’ll have to see.

In Other News:

📰 NATO activates Forward Land Forces Finland in Lapland, putting a Swedish‑led Arctic battlegroup under NATO command to reinforce Finland’s north as Moscow rebuilds its Leningrad MD and adds divisions in Karelia and Pechenga (Arctic tripwire is now live)

📰 Schneider Electric and Torngat Metals sign a Strange Lake‑anchored rare earths MoU, tying Nunavik mine, Labrador infra and Sept‑Îles separation into a G7‑blessed route to non‑Chinese heavy magnet REE (should I bring Thor?)

📰 DHL warns the clean energy boom is creating bulkier, riskier hardware that’s harder to ship at scale as it targets €3B in new-energy logistics revenue by 2030 (I have a spare truck if you want it)

📰 EDF flags possible nuclear output cuts at Saint-Alban as Rhone river heat threatens summer power supplies (I guess it’s not a good time for a swim?)

📰 China targets 40% new‑energy heavy‑duty truck share by 2030 with 1.6m‑plus vehicles and >80% electrification on key short‑haul routes (yeah about that truck…)

📰 Gridraven pegs PJM’s May 2026 congestion at $1 billion, warning that software‑based dynamic line ratings could have slashed costs on key 230 kV bottlenecks as data‑center load and heatwave‑driven demand surge (Good time to mention I have a few more Data Centers I want to build?)

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

Subscribe now

See you next week!

👋 Welcome to A World Reconfigured - your guide to a world changed by climate, geopolitics and technology. I write about how climate change is creating a new world with new rules, and often cover topics like the ❄️Arctic, 🤷‍♂️Rare Earths and 💻Data Centers.

If you happened to receive this email from a friend, please consider subscribing. If you’re already a part of this community, I’d love it if you could recommend it to a friend.

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My Unsolicited Take

What Was Not Discussed at the Summit

President Trump was busy this week: Iran, Beijing, Iran again, Greenland, Brazil. A lot happened in just a few days, but most attention was drawn to his visit to Beijing, with good reason. After all, the fate of the world is at stake.

You can find a barrage of commentaries. Some of them are very good. I particularly liked CfR’s brief. Most focused on things like trade, tariffs, and a host of other topics. I too am dedicating much time to the rare earths deal that was not reached.

But what I found most peculiar is the topic no one spoke of, especially not Trump and Xi: The Arctic.

Now, I know, you might think - this really isn’t that important. Trade, tariffs, Iran, and Taiwan are much more important. They are more pressing, I will concede, but the Arctic is a topic increasingly on everyone’s mind, with Trump himself repeatedly making China’s involvement in the Arctic a thing of import.

This past year, we’ve seen reports about China’s growing involvement in the region, including an overview of China’s efforts to map the seabed. And then there’s China’s Polar Silk Road, built with Russia’s aid and partnership:

As the US is working to rebuild its military presence in the region (see below Bigger Things), it has two things on its mind: Russia and China.

It is only a matter of time until the two will have to speak about the Arctic. I guess we’ll find out just how long.

Until that happens - enjoy this edition of the Roundup!

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Trump-Xi meeting ends without rare earth agreement (i could have helped tbh)

• Pax Arctica: US eyes Greenland, Russia eyes Svalbard (can I also claim an island?)

The Smaller Things

• Solar energy had a big week from Pakistan to Texas (hope solar travlled coach)

• Trump-Lula summit was a bit forgotten (but equally important)

In Other News: Virginia signs PJM bill into law, US drivers are stuck with more expensive cars and other things!

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Trump-Xi Meeting Ends Without a Rare Earths Deal

What Happened? Presidents Trump and Xi finally met in a long awaited summit. The summit took place amidst very low expectations (I mean, not fighiting is something, right?). And even by those standards, it seems very little was achieved. CfR President said it best:

One thing in particular did not happen: An extension to the Busan agreement. The agreement was signed last year and marked a sort of truce on tariffs and rare earths. Set to expire in November, there was speculation that the sides will annouce its extention. Well, nope.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this agreement was supposed to be a slam dunk. It not happening means that China is keeping Critical Minerals close to its vest, and not willing to make any concessions so quickly. The most the US got is a vague promise to address concerns on the topic.

My Take: ✍️ I still think the agreement will eventually be extended, but the fact that it didn’t in this summit was telling. And even if the deal extends, it’s unlikely to solve anything structural.

Pax Arctica: Military Bases, Parades and Icebreakers

What Happened? The US opened talks with Denmark and Greenland on three new monitoring bases in southern Greenland and signed a 3.5-billion-dollar contract for five Coast Guard Arctic Security Cutter icebreakers to beef up polar patrols.

Meanwhile, Russia held a Victory Day parade with youth in uniforms and a cannon salute on Norway’s demilitarized Svalbard.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Arctic never gets boring!

As I keep saying, the Greenland saga is nowhere near over. As you may recall from the brief period of time Greenland was popular, the US can build new bases thanks to the 1951 US-Greenland agreement. The issue here is treating them US soil, which Denmark and Greenland may not be super happy about.

That’s not all: The US is attempting to rebuild its aging icebreaker fleet, and Russia is slowly but surely upping the ante in Svalbard. The parade was seen by several analysts as an attempt to normalize a quasi‑military presence in the archipelago.

My Take: ✍️ Well, never a dull moment. Temperatures are still low, but we have the hallmarks of a great Cold War-esque movie, with Russia continuing to destabilize the region while the US is trying to regain its foothold after years of neglect.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Solar’s Big Week: From Texas to Pakistan

What Happened: Solar energy had a globetrottin’ week, hailing victories from Pakistan to Texas. First, the Energy Information Administration expects utility‑scale solar to generate more electricity than coal in ERCOT in 2026, roughly 78 vs. 60 billion kWh, in the state that built its brand on fossil fuels.

Second, after somewhat insulating itself from the impacts of the war in Iran through Solar, Pakistan announced an aggressive clean‑power roadmap to achieve 95% renewable electricity by 2040, with milestones of 60% clean by 2030 and 50% renewables by 2035.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Solar isn’t going anywhere, and the crisis in Hormuz helped some realize the benefits of Solar power. It looks like Pakistan is going full Solar, and it is only growing emboldened by the minute. Sightline associate Guy Cohen noted this great chart that tells Pakistan’s love affair with solar energy:

The problem, Cohen notes, is the increased reliance on China. With Beijing controlling most of the solar supply chain, there is little ability to avoid reliance on China if you’re looking for a sunny future.

And Texas? Solar is by far not the biggest generator of energy, but it is giving coal a run for its money.

My Take: ✍️ It would be very interesting to see how Pakistan’s dependence on China reshapes the region vis-a-vis its rival, India. Too early to tell, but we might see Chinese-Pakistani relations tighten as China is becoming too essential for Pakistan.

The Summit we All Forgot About

What Happened: While we were all very busy with the Trump-Xi summit, another meeting went almost entirely unnoticed: Trump’s meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Lula da Silva.

Trump and Lula spent three hours at the White House circling around critical minerals and tariffs: Lula arrived with a newly approved Brazilian critical‑minerals bill and told Trump Brazil’s rare earths are open to any investor willing to process them inside Brazil, while pointedly refusing to choose the US over China.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because we often forget that Brazil has major mineral deposits and much potential to upend current mineral geopolitics. And yet, Lula was not interested in picking sides, which will make Western mineral independence efforts much more difficult.

My Take: ✍️ It’s open season for minerals, and this has the potential to go either way: US and Brazil might become very close partners, or Lula’s unwillingness to block Chinese operations in Brazil will incur Trump’s wrath. As always, we’ll see what happenes!

In Other News:

📰 Spanberger signs Dominion-backed Virginia grid cost bills, shifting more data-center upgrade costs off households but leaving details to regulators (I’ll take my large DC elsewhere!)

📰 UK halves Green Climate Fund pledge, dropping from top donor spot and triggering concerns over impacts on $20bn GCF project pipeline and wider climate finance signalling (oh great just what Starmer needs right now)

📰 Carney signals potential softening of Canada’s 2030 emissions target as he unveils power strategy to double electricity by 2050 (it’s easier to summon Thor)

📰 Fervo’s IPO pops nearly 40% on first Nasdaq trading day, funding next‑gen geothermal build‑out and prospective East Coast plants within a decade (not investment advice)

📰 War-fueled gas spike drives Europe’s pivot to cheap Chinese EVs while U.S. buyers are stuck with pricier models (drive baby drive?)

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

Subscribe now

See you next week!

👋 Welcome to A World Reconfigured - your guide to a world changed by climate, geopolitics and technology. I write about how climate change is creating a new world with new rules, and often cover topics like the ❄️Arctic, 🤷‍♂️Rare Earths and 💻Data Centers.

If you happened to receive this email from a friend, please consider subscribing. If you’re already a part of this community, I’d love it if you could recommend it to a friend.

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TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• China is not going to give up its position on rare earths so easily (what a surprise)

• Climate talks in take place in Santa Marta and US and China were not invited (neither was I btw)

The Smaller Things

• TMC gets a nod from NOAA (looks like deep sea mining is a real thing now)

• Canada now has a sovereign wealth fund I guess (and Canadians can invest I guess)

In Other News: Virginia passes PJM bill, UNFCCC chief thinks Iran war supercharges shift to renewables and other things!

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

China Won’t Give up on REEs That Easily; Chile Moves on Critical Minerals

What Happened? China is not giving up so fast on its role as global REE czar, with a new draft regulation to increase enforcement of its rare earth rules with tougher penalties and license revocations for quota‑breaking producers. At the same time, China Northern Rare Earth signed off on a 7.79 billion yuan, 45‑month R&D campus in Baotou to upgrade its innovation capacity.

Meanwhile, Chile and the US signed new mining and security deals that expand cooperation on critical minerals projects, recycling and rhenium exploration, alongside a US‑funded program that embeds FBI support into Chile’s push against organized crime.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because with the Trump-Xi summit just around the corner, China is trying to remind everyone who’s boss (my money was always on Angela, btw). At the same time, It’s obvious China sees Western efforts to diversify supply chains and is trying to maintain its advantage through Baotou upgrades.

And while China is making moves, the US continues courting partners and allies, this time focusing on Chile.

My Take: ✍️ I guess no one is exactly surprised by China’s recent moves. China witnessed just how fast the West is mobilizing and it was only a matter of time until they reminded everyone that it is not going anywhere. I am already curious to see what the Trump-Xi summit produces on Critical Minerals.

Santa Marta Climate Talks Take Place in Colombia

What Happened? Ministers and envoys from 57 mostly mid‑sized countries met in Santa Marta, Colombia for the first summit explicitly focused on “transitioning away” from fossil fuels, co‑hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands. Naturally, the US China and Russia were not on the invitee list.

Conference attendees agreed to develop national and regional roadmaps to wind down coal, oil and gas, set up a new science panel for the energy transition, and launch three workstreams on roadmaps, phasing out fossil‑fuel subsidies and reforming debt and trade rules that currently lock countries into hydrocarbons.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this conference clearly shows that more than a handful of countries are still interested in transitioning away from Fossil Fuels. Given the Trump Administration’s climate-180 and a few other factors, much of the global discussion shifted away from climate action. That doesn’t mean that a large number of courtries aren’t interested. This also signifies the first attempt to bypass the COP mechanism and focus entirely on phaseout.

My Take: ✍️ This is one of those “you had to be there” moments, and I wasn’t there. But more seriously, this conference’s importance is in it taking place. Will it be a durable attempt to prevent the worst impacts of climate change? We’ll see what happens.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

TMC Gets a Nod from NOAA

What Happened: The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has determined that TMC USA’s consolidated application for an exploration licence and commercial recovery permit in the Clarion‑Clipperton Zone is in full compliance with US deep‑seabed mining law, moving the bid into the certification stage and setting up a potential final permit decision by early 2027.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Deep Sea Mining is the next frontier of the minerals race, and it seems like the Trump Administration is adament in letting it proceed without a hitch. The important thing here is NOAA, which has traditionally been a very environmentally conscious organization, giving TMC a go-ahead.

My Take: ✍️ NOAA’s determination is likely going to give way to a host of other companies trying to explore and leverage the seabed, but also potential lawsuits and legal proceedings.

Canada Launches Sovereign Wealth Fund

What Happened: Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney launched the Canada Strong Fund, the country’s first sovereign wealth fund, seeding it with C$25bn in public money to invest in “nation‑building” projects from energy and infrastructure to mining and tech. The fund will also be open to retail investors, drawing criticism from economists and opposition politicians who argue it risks low returns while adding to Canada’s public debt burdens.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Canada has to pay for the gargantuan infrastructure projects that PM Carney is planning to build in the coming future:

A sovereign wealth fund, although a little less standard (aka Canada has debt, not wealth), is an interesting idea.

My Take: ✍️ Guess I can’t invest as well 🤷‍♂️

In Other News:

📰 CATL inks first major sodium-ion storage deal with HyperStrong (60 GWh over 3 years, first big commercial test for Na-ion grids) (not a great time for Lithium)

📰 China weighs second green sovereign bond sale in London to channel offshore capital into domestic low‑carbon and biodiversity projects (long… not sure really)

📰 Virginia bill pushes PJM grid costs onto data centers while preserving Dominion’s profit‑boosting undergrounding program (everybody wins?)

📰 Iran war ‘supercharging’ global renewables push as governments race to cut fossil‑fuel supply‑chain risks, UN climate chief tells Paris meeting ahead of COP31 (I wish it were true, but who knows, sounds like wishful thinking)

📰 Belgium moves to nationalize its remaining nuclear reactors in a new deal with Engie to keep domestic, lower‑carbon power online (everybody loves nuclear)

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👋 Welcome to A World Reconfigured - your guide to a world changed by climate, geopolitics and technology. I write about how climate change is creating a new world with new rules, and often cover topics like the ❄️Arctic, 🤷‍♂️Rare Earths and 💻Data Centers.

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My Unsolicited Take: Build in Minerals

Last week I gave a talk about Critical Minerals and Rare Earths in front of a group of promising would-be entrepreneurs, participating in Epsilon, a premier ideation program.

It was fun and thought-provoking (the discussion, that is). I came out hopeful and even more convinced of the power of tech and innovation to help rebuild the West’s decaying infrastructure:

Yes, it’s going to be hard, but I spend my days telling anyone who would listen: Build in Minerals.

Now is the time: The West needs you, and there’s plenty of market momentum. This newsletter is partially dedicated to illuminating some of this momentum.

If you’re doing something in this space, reach out. I’d love to hear and see how I can be helpful.

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• EU and US finally sign collab while USA Rare Earth nabs Serra Verde (drill baby drill in Brazil?)

• Germany calls for weaker ETS and carbon market rules (“focus on industry” they call it)

The Smaller Things

• Pax Arctica: Europe levies sanctions while Canada and Finland announce maritime collaboration (should I bring my icebreaker?)

• Batteries are NIMBY’s latest obsession (I mean who wants to live next to a combustible facility anyway)

In Other News: Data centers are still unpopular, KKR gets lots of money from the UAE and more

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

US and EU Signed Minerals MoU while USARE Buys Serra Verde

What Happened? The US and EU (finally) signed a minerals partnership this week, aimed at reducing dependence on China through exploration of mechanisms like offtake agreements and price floors.

At the same time, USA Rare Earth closed a $2.8 billion deal for Brazil's Serra Verde mine, backed by US government financing and a 15-year offtake with guaranteed minimum prices for rare earths.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the EU-US deal is very much overdue, and is critical to overcoming China’s control over the market. The US and the EU are major buyers of permanent magnets and heavy users of critical minerals. Their market mechanism can help force China’s hand in trade negotiations and market practices.

Meanwhile, the Serra Verde deal is a big deal in fact. It seems like the deal mechanisms (price floors, offtakes) are becoming the new industry standard for large deals and we should expect to see more. This is also the first real attempt to diversify supplies away from China on heavy rare earths at a meaningful scale.

My Take: ✍️ Good news overall. Finally, we have meaningful supply AND demand attempts to lower China’s control over the minerals market. It’s another step towards mineral independence.

Germany Calls to Soften Carbon Market Rules

What Happened? With a major overhaul of the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) just around the corner, Germany wants the next round of reforms to “put industry at the core,” arguing for looser benchmarks, a slower phase‑out of free allowances, and extra flexibility in the Market Stability Reserve so Europe hits its climate targets without hammering energy‑intensive manufacturers on costs.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Germany’s plight shows the extent and depth of Europe’s climate dilemma: Skirt climate policies and miss out on targets, or remain on target at the expense of short-term competitveness. I’ve mentioned this dilemma here:

While the EU is trying to promote strict decarbonization policies, Europe itself is divided around the details: how much, when, for how long and at what cost. Every week you can find a piece of news that shows just how complex the landscape is. Germany, the EU’s biggest proponent and one of Europe’s strongest economies, is signaling to Brussels that it thinks the EU needs to take it down a notch.

My Take: ✍️ I don’t think this dilemma is going anywhere. If anything, the war in Iran and the disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz will only make Europe’s dilemma more pronounced. Europe will soon have to choose. And then choose again, and again and again.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Pax Arctica: Europe Targets Russian Shadow Fleet; Canada-Finland Maritime Deal

What Happened: Brussels released its 20th sanctions package, targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil and LNG tankers, adding dozens of vessels to the blacklist and choking off services to ships that keep Moscow’s Arctic export routes alive, while a new Canada‑Finland maritime pact quietly deepens icebreaking, shipbuilding, and naval cooperation along NATO’s northern flank.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is another sign of the bifurcated transformation of the Arctic: On the one hand, the quiet and bottom-up formation of Pax Arctica, as argued by Andreas Raspotnik:

On the other hand, a hardened battle for hegemony that radiates into the Arctic, waged between Russia and Europe.

My Take: ✍️ It is worth noting that Europe is willing to strengthen sanctions even as it is feeling the impacts of the War in Iran on its energy market. Way to go Europe for the consistency!

NIMBY Sets Sights on Batteries

What Happened: While batteries and long-duration energy storage are becoming a more permanent feature of the US energy landscape, NIMBY opposition to them is growing. A new LA Times report shows that California is now ground zero for NIMBY oppoisition to batteries, mostly due to fears of living next to combustible lithium-ion facilities.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is part of the bigger battle for the soul of America, and whether that soul is made of renewables and Data Centers or not. It turns out that most renewable infrastructure - from solar to wind to batteries - is unpopular in the US, with many communities unwilling to have them in their backyards. And yes, with Data Centers it’s even worse. How this battle turns out will be of gargantuan consequences for the future of the US.

My Take: ✍️ Well luckily we now have Iron-Air batteries. Right?

In Other News:

📰 Canada's military plans $5–8B NORAD expansion in Yellowknife (do they want to fund my new arctic startup)

📰 UAE’s $30B Alterra climate fund backs KKR’s global climate transition fund, channeling blended finance into real-economy decarbonization projects (blended finance sounds cool)

📰 UK’s British International Investment launches £1.1B Asia energy-transition fund (I should transition to APAC)

📰 Dutch scientists propose 50-mile dam across Bering Strait to prevent AMOC collapse (where can we find that many beavers)

📰 AI-linked data centers now face more U.S. local fights than wind farms (maybe not a good time to announce my wind-powered data center)

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👋 Welcome to A World Reconfigured - your guide to a world changed by climate, geopolitics and technology. I write about how climate change is creating a new world with new rules, and often cover topics like the ❄️Arctic, 🤷‍♂️Rare Earths and 💻Data Centers.

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My Unsolicited Take: And Yet it Moves

Rejoice: An epic ceasefire is upon us!

Thanks to the powers that be, the Epic Fury that engulfed the Middle East has calmed down. While nothing seems to be resolved just yet and the ceasefire is still very much fragile, I welcome the temporary resumption of daily lives.

As we embrace the relative calm that has descended on the Middle East, a new storm is brewing far away, in the Pacific Ocean:

Super El Niño.

Oh great. A regular El Niño is bad enough. A super El Niño is going to be something else. By all accounts, it is likely going to bring about “punishing drought in some regions and severe storms in others, while also causing the Earth’s temperature to rise”.

We wanted to forget about Climate Change and focus on other things. The planet, on the hand, probably had other plans.

In face of is going to be a fixture of the coming years, I am reminded of Galileo’s Eppur si muove - And yet, it moves. I think it’s likely we’ll see Climate Change on the front pages soon enough.

Buckle up, it’s going to get rough.

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• US and EU want to sign a Critical Minerals pact (can I set my own price floor?)

• Greenland blocks a big rare earths mine (would you like a side of Uranium with that?)

The Smaller Things

• India is no longer willing to host COP33 (well it is a big party to organize and the guests always complain tbh)

• The UAE is going to the Arctic (they will arrive on a yacht)

In Other News: Russia warns Canada of “unintentional accidents” in the Arctic, EDF wants to electrify France and so much more.

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

US and EU to Reach Critical Minerals Agreement

What Happened? The EU and the US are on the verge of signing a comprehensive Critical Minerals pact. This pact gives something for everybody (except China): Brussels gets its producers closer to qualifying for US EV tax credits, Washington gets a clearer pipeline of “friendly” lithium, nickel and rare earths, and both get a framework for joint subsidies and offtakes that explicitly aims to reduce dependence on China.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because despite their mutual suspicion, both sides understand there are bigger things at stake, namely China’s dominance over rare earths and other critical minerals. This pact, if signed, is likely to usher a new stream of deals and will enable US companies, already operating in Europe, to enjoy better terms and conditions.

My Take: ✍️ I’ll believe it when I see it, but all in all sounds like good news.

Greenland Blocks Rare Earth Mine + Other Market Developments

What Happened? Remember the time everyone raved about Greenland’s critical minerals? Yeah, so not so fast: Greenland is moving to block the Kvanefjeld rare earths project by rejecting its licence renewal, effectively freezing one of the world’s largest undeveloped deposits amid local opposition and a ban on uranium mining.

Meanwhile, it’s not all bad news this week: Neo Performance has started producing heavy rare earth oxides at its Silmet site in Estonia and is ramping up a magnet plant in Narva, designed to provide Europe a small but real non‑Chinese processing and magnet manufacturing foothold.

Finally, the IEA this week released a rare earths report confirming what we talked about for the past few months, that China dominates magnet supply from mine to finished product. The IEA argues that ~$6.5 trillion of annual economic activity outside China relies on those magnets, while roughly $60 billion this decade could build alternative capacity.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this stream of news shows just how hard and non-linear mineral development is. On the one hand, you have excellent news coming from Estonia, with one step further in developing refining and magnet capacity outside of China. On the other hand, Greenland rejects the largest untapped mine at a time when the West needs it the most (as the IEA report clearly states).

My Take: ✍️ Oh boy this is just what Greenland needs right now, a big scandal about rare earths. I hope no one notices…

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

India Walks Back on Hosting COP33

What Happened: India has withdrawn its offer to host the COP33 UN climate summit in 2028, formally notifying the UNFCCC that it is stepping back from a bid Modi first announced at COP28. India claimed that this walkback is mostly technical.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because India is a rising player in the renewables and the decarbonization space with an growing track record, but recently has been walking back on a few commitments. It’s not clear whether this change is truly technical or it signifies a broader shift in strategy.

My Take: ✍️ I kind-of get it. Being host is never fun: You’re on the hook for drinks, you have to clean up and guests are never happy about the music. Also, who even wants to be accountable for 100+ countries agreeing on something.

But seriously, I am still bullish on India’s ability and willingness to decarbonize and grow its renewable capacity. It has all kinds of reasons to do so.

The UAE Goes to the Arctic

What Happened: The UAE has officially joined the Svalbard Treaty, becoming the 49th signatory and opening the door for Emirati scientists and institutions to operate research projects and other civilian activities in the Arctic archipelago under Norway’s sovereignty.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Arctic is truly a global issue, and there’s Gulf countries are not ones to miss a chance to be a part of the hottest show in town. While far away from the Middle East, it seems that the Arctic is recognized by the Emirates as a new frontier. It is likely the accession to the Svalbard treaty is an attempt to stay relevant in a newly developing geopolitical hotspot.

My Take: ✍️ Well that was definitely not in my 2026 bingo, but I think the more countries are involved in Polar research, the better. I salute the UAE’s astute geopolitical senses and wish my own country do the same. How about the Polar Abraham Accords?

Turkey, Empire of Batteries; Britain, Paragon of Sunshine

What Happened: A new EMBER report puts Turkey on track to overtake every EU country on battery storage, with more than 30 GW of projects approved as it scrambles for alternatives to volatile fossil fuel imports and coal-heavy power.

Meanwhile, Britain broke its solar generation record twice on the same day and gave the green light to the 800 MW Springwell solar farm in Lincolnshire, now set to become the country’s largest power‑producing solar project and supply electricity to around 180,000 homes.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is indicates the extent of Turkey’s energy ambitions and its capacity to become a renewables powerhouse, while the UK surprises everyone with new solar records, which is… well, unexpected.

My Take: ✍️ Another one not in my 2026 bingo. I’m not super surprised about Turkey, but you have to admit UK smashing solar records does not come to mind easily. Still, I guess this is good news for brits looking for a tan?

In Other News:

📰 Battery giant CATL taps Zijin founder as mining advisor (i wonder if they need a ghost blogger)

📰 EDF unveils €240m plan to boost electrification in France (anyone fancy an electric croissant?)

📰 Sweden's Stockholm Exergi advances massive bio-CCS plant capturing 800k tonnes CO2/year (Norway, watch out!)

📰 UK and Norway thwart Russian covert op near critical infrastructure (hey i was just passing by, nothing to see)

📰 Russia warns Arctic militarization by Canada & allies risks unintentional incidents (“uninternational incidents”… yeah ok)

📰 Microsoft pauses carbon removal purchases, shocking the industry it dominated (unless they can bundle in Copilot)

📰 AOMC merges with Odyssey to form $1B deep-sea miner (hang on to your undersea horses)

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My Unsolicited Take:

This past week we celebrated Passover.

It was a strange one. Given the ongoing war, my wife and I marked the Seder quietly at home rather than with our usual big family gathering (or travel, if i’m being honest).

On Passover we ask “Ma Nishtana” – what has changed. For me, one big change over the past year and a half has been building this newsletter with you.

The world we live in is a bit of a hot mess, as they say, but I still think there are early signs of good news and reason for optimism just beyond the horizon.

It may be hard to believe, but despite many headwinds, renewables are still a thing, and keep growing. There are early signs that the West just might be able to rebuild, reshore and regain mineral independence, and for all the signs that the Arctic is becoming a proto-war zone, there’s much that is still working there.

So, I choose to remind myself every Passover that there are still good news and good things just over the horizon.

It is also a great opportunity to thank each and every one of you for reading, commenting, sharing, and generally helping me keep this going. A special thanks to my greatest supporter – my wife Sarah.

I’ll be back to my usual shenanigans and trolling mood after the holiday. ‘till then, hope you all have a great one!

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• China thumbwrestles BHP for control over the iron ore market (someone will end up with a sore thumb)

• Data Center Wars: Politicians find out they have limited control over things (when did they not)

The Smaller Things

• Strait of Hormuz blues recap: coal and gas are the comeback kids (old kids on the block and other 90s references)

• France wants to use a resilience clause in wind tenders to decarbonize and reduce Chinese reliance (hey I guess you CAN eat your cake and keep it whole)

In Other News: More implications of Epic Fury on energy, Japan is hungry for minerals and so much more

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

China Thumbwresles BHP over Iron Market

What Happened? Bloomberg released a deep-dive this week on China's quiet battle with mining giant BHP over the iron ore market, in what I can only describe as a mineral version of thumbwrestling.

China imports ~70% of the world's seaborne iron ore but can't control the price. So, Beijing has been wrestling with the three major producers to change pricing, moving from a dollar-denominated price (set by producers) to a yuan-denominated one (set by China). BHP refused, and the relationship has hit a wall.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this recent bout of thumbwrestling looking like a pricing war, but it is really a Chinese attempt to bend the Iron Ore market to its will. This is yet another attempt by Beijing to tilt the global balance of powers in its favor, trying to shift contracts from dollars to yuan.

China is already trying to expand yuan popularity in oil trade (thanks to Epic Fury). If it pulls this off in iron ore, it’s another small but real step toward loosening the dollar’s dominance in global trade.

My Take: ✍️ The thumbwrestle is interesting, but the real kicker is how China goes about this: Consolidating control with one entity named China Mineral Resource Group, which apparently can just tell mills what to do.

Data Center Wars: The Road Goes on Forever

What Happened? Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. AOC finally introduced their long-awaited federal moratorium bill on new data center construction:

While this moratorium is unlikely to become the law of the federal land, Maine’s State House passed a bill banning data center builds until 2027.

At the same time, New Jersey's newly elected governor, who ran on limiting data centers and capping electricity prices, is facing yet another possible rate hike, after prices rose 20% this past year.

Meanwhile, new data centers keep getting announced globally, because the industry didn't get the memo (or threw it away).

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this string of event shows just how heated and chaotic the landscape is becoming. They also show just how limited States’ control is over prices, and despite best intentions and campaign promises, there’s not a lot that can be done in the short term to alleviate people’s economic burdens. The problem is - the short term is what matters politically.

My Take: ✍️ The chaotic flurry of weekly happenings is exactly why I called it the Data Center Wars.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Strait of Hormuz Blues: Coal & Gas are the Comeback Kids

What Happened: The war's energy ripples keep spreading:

• Europe is weighing a return to emergency fuel restrictions;

• Italy pushed its coal phase-out to 2038 and Germany is eyeing mothballed coal plants.

• The US hit record natural gas export volumes, mostly to Asia.

• And UK Energy Secretary Miliband is perhaps leaning toward approving new North Sea gas drilling off Aberdeen, reversing a ban that was central to Labour's energy platform.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because despite speculation (and some reporting) that countries are weighing moving towards renewables in the long term, right now many are focused on hydrocarbons as a source of security. Epic Fury goes to show that the path to renewables isn’t a straight line, if at all.

My Take: ✍️ I still think that in the long run, renewables are going to dominate, but you know what they say - in the long run we’re all dead.

France Wants to Boost Renewables AND Europe

What Happened: France announced 12 gigawatts of renewable energy tenders, mostly offshore wind, to reduce fossil fuel exposure. The tenders include a "Resilience" criterion designed to prioritize European components and limit Chinese ones.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is an interesting attempt for Europe to have it both ways: Decarbonize AND prevent further dependence on China. The resilience clause is trying to do something Europeans are not famous for: Leveraging demand to create excess supply of the right stuff.

My Take: ✍️ Europe gets a bad rep for being overbeaurocratic, slow and generally clueless, but it’s clear that when European countries really want to do something, they can find the way to do so.

In Other News:

📰 Iran War threatens Gulf petrostates' climate tech investments via Strait of Hormuz closure (I guess not a good time to ask them to fund my new startup)

📰 ARENA funds five projects $13m for Australia's industrial decarbonisation (ok maybe it is a good time?)

📰 U.S. Forest Service closes 57 wildfire research stations amid HQ move to Utah (ugh, you sure about that?)

📰 ReElement, Mitsubishi Materials ink strategic investment deal to scale US rare earth and battery metal recycling and refining for more secure, lower-impact critical mineral supply chains (Minerals are big in Japan)

📰 Climate investors spy big upside in India’s new grid-and-batteries-focused climate plan (thinking of starting Modi Venture Partners)

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My Unsolicited Take:

Hi everyone,

My (beautiful) wife tells me that she always thought she’d be a student of history, not a participant. And yet, these past couple of years have felt like we’ve been active participants as history is being written.

There’s an adage I keep coming back to: There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.

These past few weeks (and even months) have felt like decades, and not only thanks to the Strait of Hormuz everyone is talking about. Yes, the Strait is the main show in town, and you probably are right in following it.

However, there are other shows around the world that make decades happen, even if they are less flashy than drones and ships. They are quieter, but warrant our attention.

From Pakistan to Denmark, there are signals that our world is changing, and quite rapidly. This past week, for example, critical minerals were the subject of geopolitical realignment, while the Danish election may determine the direction of the Arctic. Even the Strait had less visible, yet important, reverberations.

This Roundup is dedicated, once again, to the less discussed shows, the shows that make decades happen.

Hope you enjoy this edition of the Roundup.

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• The Strait of Hormuz had a few less discussed impacts (like me getting cabin fever)

• Critical Minerals had another killer week (at this rate they should have a world tour)

The Smaller Things

• Thanks to Trump, Danish elections heat up while focusing on the frozen kingdom (thank you for your attention to this matter!)

• Google came up with 1GW of flexible load (maybe they can make data centers a bit less unpopular)

In Other News: Climate-resistent apples, shifting tornadoes and much, much more.

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Strait of Hormuz Blues: What You’ve Missed

What Happened? Sure, everyone’s talking about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone’s an expert on the geo-eco-political implications, and it’s clear by now its a major artery of global commodity trade:

I want to dedicate this section to three things that most people noticed less:

First, cars: The rise in oil prices thanks to the closure of the Strait led to an uptick in EV adoption, mostly in Asia. While Western countries experienced less of this trend, Asian countries like Vietnam have reported that EV sales have skyrocketed. Who benefits? China, of course, who dominates the EV market today.

Second, Pakistan: While many countries started rethinking their dependence on oil and contemplate switching to renewables to insulate themselves from similar shocks, Pakistan already managed to hedge against the impacts of the closure, thanks to its rapid adoption of solar energy, primarily of the Rooftop variety.

The scale of Pakistan’s solar adoption is supposedly enormous, but not entirely clear. Some estimates put solar to account 20% of new generation in 2024. At any rate, this adoption can serve as an example for other countries looking to insulate from such supply shocks.

Third, Solar Panels: One sector to feel the pinch is the solar industry. According to Heatmap News, Aluminum is a major victim of the closure, squeezing profit margins on solar development projects.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because these lesser discussed impacts can indicate much bigger shifts that are taking place, and indicate that China is not completely out of pocket when it comes to this war. Finally, Pakistan’s solar adoption might convince other countries to follow suite.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah, the closure of the Straits is important, can’t argue with that. Still, I think it will unfold long-term quite differently than what most people think.

Once Again, Minerals at the Heart of Geopolitics

What Happened? Another busy week for critical minerals.

While everyone was watching the Strait, President Trump met Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi and, Pearl Harbor jokes aside, announced a joint Action Plan on critical minerals to deepen cooperation on rare earths and other key inputs.

Outside the US, Canada signed an MoU with Peru on critical-minerals mining, and the EU and Australia moved forward on a free trade deal that would give Europe better access to Australian resources. In the private sector, Aclara advanced a separation pilot in Virginia, and Lynas produced the first samarium oxide outside China, a crucial step for magnet supply chains that feed platforms like the F‑35.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because even with Hormuz snarling commodity flows, the push to rebuild Western supply chains and loosen China’s grip on rare earths has not slowed at all. If anything, this week underscored how quickly “mineral independence” is moving from talking point to implementation.

My Take: ✍️ None of this is shocking. Japan is jumpy about China’s threats, Canada is busy playing Middle Power, and the private sector is doing what it always does: executing. But beneath the business-as-usual mood, the race for mineral independence is clearly accelerating, and it isn’t easing off anytime soon.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

There’s Something Frozen in the Kingdom of Denmark

What Happened: Denmark’s upcoming election will be a tough fight for Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen as she seeks a third term, and until recently her chances looked… not great.

Trump has changed that calculus,

much like he did for Mark Carney. Greenland, defense, and a shifting world order are now at the center of the campaign, earning Frederiksen points for standing up to Trump, while Greenlandic politicians use the attention to press for more from Copenhagen.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Denmark’s vote is an early harbinger of what’s coming: more contested, defense-heavy elections across Europe as security politics take over domestic agendas. It will also help shape the Arctic’s future, since a third Frederiksen term likely means a continued “not for sale” line on Greenland.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah, like I keep saying: The Greenland saga is nowhere near finished, and as Danes head to the polls they’ll be voting, among other things, to defend the current Arctic status quo.

Google Shows Up with Flexible Demand

What Happened: Google announced the integration of 1 gigawatt of “demand response” capacity into long‑term utility contracts, letting it shift AI workloads in times of need to help stabilize the grid and support cheaper, smarter electricity growth.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because just as Hyperscalers are getting much heat (and hate) for their data centers, Google is coming in the nick of time with something that might actually help prevent grid stress and might impact prices.

My Take: ✍️ Google has a long track record of backing novel energy tech and signing huge renewable deals. I’m curious to see if and to what extent they will scale this ability.

In Other News:

📰 Norwegian police shifts counter-hybrid training to Russia border amid Moscow's bill enabling armed rescues of detained citizens abroad (yeah not on my visiting destination anytime soon)

📰 South Korea creates a working group uniting government, ports, and research institutes to accelerate eco‑friendly Arctic shipping routes and technologies (can I buy one of those ships?)

📰 UK Reform Party pledges to eliminate green levies, VAT on energy bills, saving households ~£200/year amid rising oil prices (two things are certain in life: death and green taxes)

📰 US faces shifting tornado patterns with rising activity in Southeast/Northeast amid severe storms, as climate change complicates attribution amid Midwest outbreaks (I’m not going to the Midwest anytime soon either!)

📰 Denmark's rural voters backlash against sprawling solar farms ("iron fields") ahead of elections, halting projects despite 90% renewable electricity (like Frederiksen didn’t have enough on her plate…)

📰 Washington State University unveils Sunflare apple, bred for climate resilience like Cosmic Crisp but hardier against erratic weather and costs (yum!)

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My Unsolicited Take:

Hi everyone,

It is week three of Epic Fury / Roaring Lion / the Iran war. Everyone is focusing, with good reason, on the oil and gas supply shock and the impact it will have over the region, and the rest of the world.

I agree it’s a big issue, but looking ahead I’m more concerned about mineral shortages. While I’m trying to release a more methodical argument, the core idea is that wars tend to negatively impact mineral supplies and rapidly increase demand.

It’s not a bad thing, but it has major implications for geopolitics and everyone else. From raising prices for consumer electronics to giving China an extra edge, I suspect the war’s impacts will reverberate far longer and wider than we tend to think.

Elsewhere, lots of things are happening while we focus on the Iran War. Canada is going HAM in the Arctic, China continues its FYP process and Data Centers are still very unpopular in the US, threatening to be a bigger issue in the midterms than gasoline prices. And that’s just one week.

What can I say, 2026 is proving itself to be an even wackier year than 2025. How much worse can it get? Like Donald Trump likes to say: We’ll see what happens.

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Mark Carney had a big week in the Arctic (he brought a $35B coat)

• Data Centers are the defining issue of the midterms (well a lot of people hate them)

The Smaller Things

• Japan signs a deal with Lynas to secure rare earth supplies after China threats (they never learn, do they)

• China signs the Environmental Protection Code into law (but covers mountains in solar panels 🤷‍♂️)

• US DOE wants to give you money for Grid upgrades and critical minerals (do they want to support my writing?)

In Other News: India goes back to fossil fuels, Critical Metals greenlights Tanbreez, Virginia legalizes balcony solar and more.

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Mark Carney’s Big Arctic Week

What Happened? Canadian PM Mark Carney was very busy this week:

First, he announced a landmark ~C$35B plan to “defend, build, and transform the North”, which includes massive investments in military bases, infrastructure and even community projects to strengthen Canada’s position in the Arctic (and the broader Canadian North).

If that wasn’t enough, Carney traveled to Norway, to observe NATO’s Arctic military exercise, Cold Response. Later, Carney traveled to meet with leaders of the Northern countries. Carney did mostly watching and talking, but he did give a killer speech:

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Carney is on a journey to transform Canada into an Arctic superpower (and a general Middle Power). True to his Middle Powers speech in Davos last year, Carney is focused on positioning Canada as a leader in the Arctic, a topic that is becoming top of mind for many countries. Some of this is, of course, performative, since it’s not clear how much Canada is actually contributing to Cold Response1. Oh well, we do live in a Social Media world.

My Take: ✍️ I generally like Carney and I like Canada. I think it’s a net good having Canada playing an outsized role in the Arctic, as long as it does so without ignoring the native communities. We’ll see what happens.

Oh also, I made an AI-generated breakdown of the Arctic plan, just for you:

Data Centers Wars: It’s All Politics (and Prices)

What Happened? In the latest installment of your favorite TV show “The Data Center Wars”, it became pretty clear this week that DCs are now a major part of the political landscape in the US.

Heatmap News did a fantastic job at highlighting just how DCs are playing a major role in shaping US politics ahead of the midterms, pushing even Republicans to take a stand against them.

The AI industry is pushing back, of course, with a new $100M super PAC that is currently targeting Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has been very vocal against data centers.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because data centers are quickly becoming a key operative issue of the midterms, with the AI industry standing on one side and a lot of angry people on the other. You might be tempted to think it’s gas prices, but the upcoming midterms will likely focus on AI, Data Centers and, well, permitting and stuff.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah I’m staying out of this one.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Japan Gives China the Rare Earth Finger

What Happened: Japan amended its deal with Australia's Lynas Rare Earths to extend it through 2038 and include improved terms. The deal guarantees Japan 5,000 tonnes of light rare earths (NdPr) annually with a price floor of $110 per kilogram (similar to the price of MP Materials’ price floor). Additionally, Lynas will reserve 75% of its highly prized heavy rare earths specifically for the Japanese market.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this deal is a part of Japan’s series moves to break free from China’s rare earths chokepoint. Just a few months ago Japan decided to embark on an experiment to deep sea mine rare earths:

This latest deal comes shortly after China threatened to place export controls over rare earths in retaliation for PM Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan. Japan took the threats seriously, so it seems, and is working to create alternative supply chains.

My Take: ✍️ Instead of putting Japan in its so-called place, China’s threats galvanized the Takaichi government to find alternatives. It seems like China doesn’t want to learn the Oct 2025 lesson. Oh well.

China Signs Landmark Climate Legislation

What Happened: A week after Beijing received major flak for meh climate commitments in its 15th Five-Year-Plan, China adopted the Ecological and Environmental Code. The code consolidates dozens of fragmented rules into one sweeping legal framework. It officially elevates tools like carbon emissions trading and footprint management into national law.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because despite the criticism and underwhelming climate targets, China still appears to be taking environmental regulation seriously and trying to keep decarbonizing. Given China’s scale and size, this move will have visible impacts.

My Take: ✍️ Not sure how this new piece of legislation goes hand in hand with solar‑panel‑covered mountains:

US DOE Wants to Give You Money

What Happened: US Dept. of Energy announced two major funding packages this week: $1.9 billion to rapidly upgrade the U.S. power grid using advanced, higher-capacity wires, and $500 million to boost domestic processing and recycling of critical battery minerals.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the US is finally getting serious in promoting innovation and technology in its quest to modernize its infrastructure, and continues the push towards mineral independence. With respect to the Grid, the US is due for an upgrade of its aging electrical grid, and it’s about time we’ve seen a major funding opportunity.

My Take: ✍️ Mom always told me I should become a Reconductor. But noooo, I always know better 😤

In Other News:

📰 📰 India turns to polluting fuels like biomass, kerosene, and fuel oil amid war-led gas shortages (e tu, Modi?)

📰 US forecasters predict El Niño by September, threatening higher global temperatures and crop disruptions. (I guess this is the real comeback kid)

📰 Solar auctions & PPAs delivered 92 GW shielding Europe post-2022 crisis (and you thought renewables are bad…)

📰 Palisades fire victims propose resilience district for disaster hardening amid L.A. housing hurdles (big if successful)

📰 Virginia legalizes balcony solar, second after Utah (pack your bags, we’re going to VA!)

📰 Critical Metals greenlights a $30M push to fast‑track its Tanbreez heavy rare earths project in Greenland toward late‑decade production as Western allies seek non‑Chinese supply (oh hey, at least somebody is doing something about it)

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Hi everyone,

Last week I skipped my weekly roundup thanks to the breakout of Epic Fury / Roaring Lion. I did opine that it’s too early to tell how the war will unfold and therefore analysts should wait a second for things to develop:

I will be opining once again soon with my thoughts about what I think you should pay attention to, but for now I’m trying to get back at it with the weekly update on things you probably missed.

Hope you enjoy this edition of the Roundup!

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Iran War makes energy complicated (when is it not)

• China released its 15th Five-Year-Plan (can’t wait for the movie)

The Smaller Things

• Canada’s announcement-palooza at PDAC (putting money where Mark Carney’s mouth is)

• Data Center Wars: Tech CEOs sign a pledge (it’s like a pinky promise but for adults)

In Other News: Nuclear is hype except in China, Planet heating up faster than we thought and so much more.

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Iran War Makes Energy Complicated

What Happened? It’s almost impossible to recap the week without addressing the war with Iran (Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion), and the situation evolves daily (especially for those, like me, who are within missile range).

Recently, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off almost 20% of the world’s oil supply. The conflict has spiked oil and LNG prices, rattled global markets, and sent the Trump Administration scrambling for solutions.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the war and the closure of Hormuz will have both short term and more enduring, long-term impacts on the global energy sector and will have unintended consequences. One such long-term consequence might actually be a good thing for renewable energy, convincing countries to move away from “risky” oil and LNG and move to more resilient solar and wind. Not everyone agrees, though.

My Take: ✍️ I know everyone is fixated on the energy markets right now, but I think the real hidden crunch will be in the critical mineral sector. Stay tuned for a deeper dive from me on this topic later this week.

China Releases 15th Five-Year Plan

What Happened? China finally dropped its long-awaited 15th Five-Year-Plan (2026-2030) this week, and for decarbonization buffs, it’s a mixed bag. On one hand, Beijing disappointed climate advocates by weakening its carbon intensity reduction target to 17% (down from 18%) and remaining stubbornly ambiguous on coal. On the other hand, the plan expands carbon markets and mandates massive “clean-energy bases” in the desert to continue the renewable buildout.

Think Tank CREA summed it best:

China’s 15th Five-year Plan continues the pattern in the country’s climate policy established in the past five years: strong support for scaling up clean energy and emerging low-carbon industries, but continued caution when it comes to setting firm constraints on fossil fuel consumption and emission growth.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because, well, it’s China. China’s FYPs help us understand the trajectory of a superpower. They signal exactly what the global push toward decarbonization will look like over the next half-decade. Right now, it looks like Beijing will continue oscillating between its desire for global climate leadership and its domestic need for grid stability.

My Take: ✍️ I'll be watching to see how China continues to push down global prices on solar and wind, but the real space to watch is their progress on scaling nuclear energy while the rest of the world lags behind.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Canada’s Announcement-Palooza at PDAC

What Happened: Canada has hosted the 2026 Prospectors and Developers Associations Conference in Toronto. Canada’s government leveraged the occasion to announce a host of investments and programs, including:

• $1.5B (CAD) First and Last Mile Fund, designed to build infrastructure to support remote mines and processing hubs

• $2B (CAD) Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, designed to secure supplies of graphite, lithium and rare earths. It’s the Canadian response to US’s Vault (well, kind of)

• Critical Minerals Production Alliance expansion, unlocking $12.1B (CAD) in capital alongside 12 allied nations to reduce reliance on adversarial supply chains

• A Joint Declaration of Intent with Greenland designed to increase collaboration between the two countries on energy security, minerals and Arctic infrastructure

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Canada is putting its money where Mark Carney’s mouth is:

It’s no coincidence this comes just months after Carney’s landmark Davos speech. Canada is actively gearing up to be the sherpa of the Middle Powers, investing heavily in critical industries to buy itself options, security, and global influence.

My Take: ✍️ I’m with Canada on this, and happy to see its increased role in the Arctic. I’m impressed with just how much Canada is stepping in show friendship to Greenland (even though Canada is clearly taking advantage of the situation)

Data Center Wars: The Great Energy Pinky Promise

What Happened: Tech CEOs met with President Donald Trump this week to sign the Ratepayer Protection Pledge”, which is a nice way of saying Bring Your Own Energy.

The pledge includes five core commitments:

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is one of the Administration’s key efforts to address the growing political tensions caused by Data Centers (they are really unpopular) ahead of the Midterms. The strategy relies entirely on BYOE. While it sounds great in theory, it’s a double-edged sword: critics warn the "grid defection" cost shift could actually backfire, leaving individual ratepayers to foot an even higher bill.

My Take: ✍️ Two question come to mind: (1) Will companies actually comply with the pledge?; (2) If they will, will it work? Honestly, I’m not sure it matters. With the Midterms just around the corner, this is about optics, and there is zero chance we'll see structural change before November.

In Other News:

📰 Earth’s warming rate has nearly doubled since 2015, now 0.35°C/decade. This is the first statistically confirmed acceleration, pointing to a Paris breach before 2030. (oh boy it CAN get worse)

📰 Trump’s Cook Inlet offshore lease sale attracted zero bids, the first of six Congress mandated, exposing the gap between energy dominance rhetoric and market reality. (I guess no one wants to drill baby drill?)

📰 Coastal sea levels are a foot higher than assumed in 90% of climate models, with up to 3 feet more in Southeast Asia, putting 37% more land at risk. (oh hey prepare your wetsuit)

📰 Barclays warned clean energy faces stranded asset risk as capital rotates back toward fossil fuels following the Iran war shock. (well, for now at least)

📰 Bill Gates’ TerraPower received its federal construction permit for a sodium-cooled reactor in Wyoming — the first advanced nuclear permit in decades.

📰 Meanwhile, Bloomberg pushed back on nuclear renaissance hype, noting most announced projects are years behind. China is doing well, however (Nuclear is big, but mostly in China)

📰 Cameco signed a $1.9B uranium supply deal with India — the largest civil nuclear fuel contract in India’s history, as Modi doubles down on atomic energy (Modi is in a Nuclear mood)

📰 Vermont’s clean heat standard collapsed under political and economic pressure — a cautionary tale about the gap between passing climate law and making it survive. (well I got nothing funny to say, it’s just sad)

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• India’s Big Week (AI and Wind and Minerals, oh my!)

• California signs MoU with UK (Newsom Miliband on the 2028 ballot?!)

The Smaller Things

• Europe goes submarine hunting (where are the Beatles when you need them)

• King of Denmark visits Greenland (with a royal handwave to match!)

In Other News: Climate superfunds, IEA stops believing in climate change and plenty of other stuff

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

India’s Big Week: AI, Climate and Minerals

What Happened? This was a pretty big for Narendra Modi and the fourth largest economy in the world:

First, India held a widely covered AI Impact Week, with many of the world’s leading AI CEOs on stage alongside Modi (including a cringe moment with two of them) and culminating in the Delhi Declaration. Second, India joined Pax Silica, the US-led alliance designed to secure AI, semiconductor and critical mineral supply chains.

Finally, India partnered with the UK to create a joint offshore wind taskforce that is supposed to generate ~71GW of wind power available along India’s coasts.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because India is going for all the marbles and making major moves across three of the most important topics these days. India is trying to position itself as a world leader on par with the US and China, and hosting an AI summit is definitely one interesting way to do so. In the meantime, India is trying to make sure it does not have to choose and is playing with multiple geopolitical parties.

My Take: ✍️ Fun times ahead with India. In my 2025 yearly recap, I mentioned that I will expanding my coverage on India in 2026, and Modi is really making my job easy. Lots to expect to!

Newsom-Miliband on the 2028 Ticket?!

What Happened? California Governor Gavin Newsom signed this week a Memorandum of Understanding for climate collaboration with… UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband???

The agreement is set to create a framework to scale renewable energy and enhance technological and scientific ties between the land of eternal sunshine and California.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because… I’m actually not really sure, but it sounds like a big deal. this collaboration shows how states can take the place of the federal government in promoting climate goals, while scoring political points. Trump’s reaction probably did not surprise Newsom, who is constantly looking to troll differentiate himself from Trump and signaling that he should be on the 2028 ballot. It just might work.

My Take: ✍️ I mean… yeah, why not. Maybe Miliband will be the runner up as Newsom’s VP candidate? Stranger things happened.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Europe is Hunting for (Yellow?) Submarines

What Happened: Norway, Germany and the UK agreed to share responsibility of hunting for submarines in the High North, while relieving the US from the same duty. Several other countries, including France, have indicated they are interested in joining the initiative.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this agreement may be a signal to the US that Europe is willing to take more responsibility for its security, and for the security of the US. Just recently, an article illustrated Chinese efforts to map the northern seas, highlighting the concern the US shares over submarine movements close to its borders.

My Take: ✍️ Smart move, Europe. The submarine hunting initiative allows Europe to actually increase its defense posture in the region, show the Trump Administration it is serious about security and relieve US of security burden, all at the same time. Kudos!

I’m just wondering if the Beatles are a part of the UK contingent.

Denmark’s King Visits Greenland

What Happened: Denmark’s King, Frederik X, flew into Nuuk for his second visit to Greenland in under a year, aiming to project unity between Denmark and the autonomous territory amid renewed US pressure from President Donald Trump to acquire the island.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Greenland saga is not over, with negotiations still underway. As customary in such negotiations, there’s a constant need to send signals of your position. The King’s visit is certainly one.

My Take: ✍️ I still think a renewed flareup of the Greenland saga is only a matter of time, and it seems like Denmark and Greenland understand that, hence their need to show that they are still not interested in selling.

In Other News:

📰 Finland plans a €65m state-backed pilot mine to develop Lapland’s Sokli rare earths and phosphate deposit, seen as key to EU mineral security (Make Finland Rare Again)

📰 US forces global energy watchdog to drop climate as a core priority after Trump officials threaten to quit the agency

📰 Denmark plans more F-35 missiles and Arctic gear to boost NATO-aligned winter readiness (King of Denmark should have traveled on F35 instead)

📰 States are pushing “climate superfund” bills to make fossil fuel companies pay for climate damages despite Trump’s opposition (somebody is trying to make an impression)

📰 Climate change supercharged deadly floods in Spain’s Valencia region, worsening the 2024 storm that killed over 230 people and caused about €29 billion in damage (my condolences to the families of those killed)

📰 Private equity giants are circling battered clean-energy developers, betting on a rebound after last year’s deal slump (Can I buy in on that)

📰 Supreme Court knocks down Trump’s emergency tariffs, likely cutting some solar, battery, and clean-tech costs (let the lawsuits roll)

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Hey there folks!

As world leaders gather at the Munich Security Conference, I’m here to remind you that the world doesn’t stop to convene, so here’s the weekly roundup for you!

Before we start, last week I published some thoughts about how recent US moves to bolster critical mineral supply chains like Vault and FORGE can create a big opportunity for startups:

I want to see you prove me wrong would love to hear your feedback, and if you’re in this space - would love to hear from you!

Hope you enjoy this roundup!

Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• NATO launches Arctic Sentry Mission (sounds like we’re in X-Men or something)

• China’s Emissions Fall Flat (down but not out)

• US repeals the endangerment finding (“Objection!” is going to be the word of 2026)

The Smaller Things

• Washington State wants data centers to bring their own energy (does energy come in six packs?)

• Greenland just might build its first data center (I hear AI loves the cold)

In Other News: Europe can’t make up its mind, Russian tourist town becomes hotspot for shadow fleet, Hornsea 3 starts construction and more

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

NATO Launches Arctic Sentry

What Happened? NATO launched "Arctic Sentry," a new operation that coordinates existing military drills in the Arctic under one command led by Joint Force Command Norfolk, bringing together exercises to boost the alliance's presence in the region. Arctic Sentry is a response to rising Arctic militarization and growing Chinese influence.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because NATO is trying to get a 2 for 1 combo: Respond to growing ambitions of its rivals, Russia and China, for the Arctic; AND show Trump that NATO takes Arctic security seriously.

My Take: ✍️ Mark Rutte showed once again that he is an adept politician, but I don’t think it’s going to help for the long term. Something gives me the feeling the Greenland saga will have a Part III…

China’s Emission are Falling

What Happened? Whaddayaknow, sometimes there are good news. A new report by Carbonbrief shows that China’s emissions fell by 1% in the last quarter of 2025, extending a tend of “flat or falling” emissions from March 2024.

The decline hit every major sector except chemicals, while solar, wind, nuclear and batteries covered enough new electricity demand to let coal generation fall.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because China is one of the world’s largest emitters, and is an industrial who literally moves the needle. While Washington dismantles climate policy and fights renewables, Beijing's emissions drop (if it holds) delivers both geopolitical leverage and real climate progress.

At the same time, it’s still early to tell whether this is a momentary decline or a structural milestone.

My Take: ✍️ China is proving you can grow and decarbonize at the same time, edging closer to full Electrostate status while the US goes the other direction.

US Repeals the Endangerment Finding

What Happened? While China leads on emissions reduction, the US’s Environmental Protection Agency has repealed the Endangerment Finding of 2009, which effectively serves as the basis for the EPA’s ability to regulate carbon emissions.

This move is framed as the largest act of deregulation in US history and is set to have monumental impacts on the US, and bring about a barrage of legal challenges. Dan Wang was probably right, describing the US a nation of Lawyers (full disclosure: guilty as charged)

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because if courts uphold it, the federal government effectively gives its authority up to regulate emissions from power plants, vehicles and industry, kicking climate policy to states, markets and future administrations.

My Take: ✍️ This could backfire quite spectacularly: it might make states more willing to regulate emissions, as there’s no more federal preemption on carbon regulation. It’s not at all clear that this is the end of carbon emission regulation.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Data Center Wars: Washington joins BYO Energy Club

What Happened: Washington state introduced new legislation that mandates data centers to bring their own energy sources and not rely on the grid for power. Washington state joins other states, like Oregon and Minnesota in introducing such legislation (though WA’s bill did not pass yet). The bill comes at a time when lots of people are angry at data centers for hiking their electricity bills.

Not everyone’s sold. Critics argue that BYOE mandates could drive energy prices up, not down.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is how the data center wars are being fought: Through state bills, moratoriums and mandates trying to balance affordability with keeping the AI boom from fleeing

My Take: ✍️ is right: people hate data centers, and policymakers and lawmakers are trying to deal with the growing frustration with them. I don’t think it will help, though. These solutions are Band-Aids. What the US need is a deep, structural permitting reform that will allow adding more capacity.

The Great Data Center of Greenland

What Happened: A former Trump aide and a former Greenland official want to build a mega AI data‑center campus near Kangerlussuaq, starting at 300MW and maybe growing to 1.5GW.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Greenland has been at the center of news recently, but no one spoke of AI. Whether encouraged by the US government or a pure financial play, a data center built by a US investor might go either way: It will either make things more tense between US and Europe, or it might be cool by everyone.

My Take: ✍️ CALLED IT! The Arctic’s freezing weather is helpful for data centers (at least on paper), and I suspected that the growing need for cooling will get developers to try their luck in the Arctic. I’m not sure it’s a great idea due to the harsh conditions in the region, but sure, why not, give it a shot.

In Other News:

📰 Critical Metals confirms high-grade heavy rare earths at Tanbreez Greenland project (should I pack my bags already?)

📰 Heat pumps still beat gas furnaces in 2025 despite sales dip (Black Eyed Peas were right after all)

📰 New SEC rules made it harder for small shareholders to push companies on climate (I guess I should cancel my next campaign)

📰 Ørsted receives first foundations for world's largest offshore wind farm Hornsea 3 (let’s hope they don’t get second wind)

📰 German Chancellor Merz signals openness to revise or delay EU carbon market rules (Europe make up your mind already!)

📰 Arctic tourist resort Teriberka is becoming a hub for sanctioned Russian LNG tankers (I wonder what the truckstop looks like over there)

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial takes place with over 50 countries (but China wasn’t invited… maybe that was the point)

• India’s 2026 budget holds big promises for decarbonization and the green transition (I’m waiting for a Bollywood movie about solar panels)

The Smaller Things

• Data centers are at odds with Trump voters (we’ll see what happens)

• Saudi Arabia and Turkey demonstrate solar diplomacy (peace in the middle east… through solar panels?)

In Other News: Lots of stuff

The Talk of the Town

• Critical minerals, government equity investments 101, history of mineral stockpiles and so much more

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Critical Minerals FORGE Ahead

What Happened? Over 50 countries attended the US’s 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial, which is the mineral version of Woodstock or something. During the event, the US announced “Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement” (FORGE), which serves as a trade bloc with preferential terms that will help coordinate projects and policy.

The US government also announced project Vault, a $12B critical mineral stockpile and signed a flurry of bilateral deals, MoUs and frameworks with Mexico, EU, UK and others.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a culmination of the US’s attempt to break free from China’s stranglehold over critical minerals and rare earths, a dependence that is still growing. These moves stirred overall positive responses, though not without critique.

My Take: ✍️ Called it! I published a piece on the US strategy, where I claimed that multilateralism (or plurilateralism) is one of the Administrations key strategic levers. This week, they definitely upped the ante on this one:

India’s New Budget and Renewables

What Happened? India released its annual budget last week. The budget is complex and signals the direction which India is going to, which is rapid industrialization, focus on advanced defense and tech capabilities, and more (I thank Dr. Lauren Dagan Amos for her insights on the budget).

Interestingly, the budget includes massive investments in Carbon Capture, Nuclear Energy infrastructure, renewables, adaptation and critical minerals and rare earths.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because India’s push for rapid industrialization and growth includes pivotal moves towards decarbonization, energy independence through renewables and catch up on critical minerals. This budget meets India’s ambitions to be a global power, but one that leapfrogs fossil-fuel growth.

My Take: ✍️ We are going to hear a lot about India’s push towards decarbonization and mineral independence. I think India is going to be a big part of the 2026 geopolitical and energy map.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Data Center Wars: Trump Voters Don’t Like Them

What Happened: As Hyperscalers issue guidance this week on record AI infrastructure investments, a recent HeatmapNews article shows how unpopular data centers are among… Trump voters, primarily in rural areas. This sentiment joins general unpopularity of DCs

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the unprecedented support given by the Trump Administration to Data Center development is starting to seem like it is diametrically opposed to the preferences of the MAGA base, which can cause a rift between Republicans and their voters ahead of the Midterms Elections.

My Take: ✍️Well, what can I say. As the President likes to say: We’ll see what happens.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey Signed a Solar Deal

What Happened: Saudi Arabia agreed to invest $2B to build solar power plants in Turkey, as part of a bigger deal between the two countries to scale renewable energy to the tune of 2GW of solar, and then later additional 3GW of wind. This agreement will include 50% localization rate, which will help boost local Turkish industry.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a good example of the global push towards renewables AND is a sign of how the Middle East is reconfiguring at the geopolitical level. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are starting to collaborate more, and energy is one key channel to realignment.

My Take: ✍️ We are likely to see more of these announcements, and I will not be surprised if we see Saudi Arabia playing the role of renewable developer writ-large in the Middle East, and perhaps in other regions, as the Saudi Kingdom attempts to diversify its economy and project soft power in the region.

In Other News:

📰 Virginia Lawmakers want to un-restrict solar farms (good luck in the midterms!)

📰 China is not happy about the EU’s probe over Wind subsidies (no one ever liked a probe I guess)

📰 Speaking of China, 90% of its investment growth is attributable to renewables (yeah I have nothing witty to say here)

📰 Taiwan is likely to push timeline to meet Green Energy goals (don’t they have bigger fish to fry?)

📰 Some comments against a solar farm in Ohio are fake (I guess we trained Moltbook to be anti-solar?)

📰 EU renewable push is at risk thanks to critical mineral shortages (look surprised!)

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

🖇️ Alexandra Middleton share many insights: Published a paper on Greenland’s Rare Earths and provided a recap of the Arctic Frontiers conference. I’d love to go next year!

✍️ shared a historical perspective on stockpiles, in light of the launch of Vault.

✍️ masterfully unpacked how SMR startups work

🖇️ Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes showed how Project Vault makes critical minerals financeable by rewiring U.S. market structure.

✍️ hosted Dr. Sarah Kapnick about how climate change is speeding up, models are getting sharper, and rising risks now touch everything from daily weather to money decisions

✍️ explored how government equity investing is emerging as a pivotal new policy tool rather than a niche financial experiment

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Hi there folks!

So, I’m finally really back from vacation. I spent the last couple of weeks in India, combining work and some travel with my lovely wife.

India was amazing, mesmerizing and inspiring. I saw the depths of the transformation India is undergoing, and I plan on writing more about this topic in a new series I’m working on with a dear friend who is actually an expert on the topic.

At any rate, here are some pictures for you while you’re waiting:

While I was away, a lot of things happened: Trump threatened to take over Greenland and kind-of did a U-Turn; Davos 2026 spewed more important speeches than one can digest; China and Canada signed an EV deal; and extreme weather kept on pounding across the globe (except for India that is).

My obvious takeaway from this is never to go on vacation again. Or at least give you a warning.

But until I go again, here’s the roundup!

~ Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• The Greenland Saga looks like it’s over, but people are still nervous (even the Penguins who are in Antarctica)

• EU & India sign the mother of all deals (Trump doesn’t have a monopoly over bravado)

The Smaller Things

• Rare Earths are still a big deal (I picked the right field to pretend I understand)

• Data centers get a PR makeover, but still get pummeled in rural America (good time to suggest my vacant lot?)

In Other News: Lots of stuff

The Talk of the Town

• Clawd, China’s AI Ecosystem, CoreWeave and more!

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

The Greenland Saga Only Looks Like its Over

What Happened? After weeks of heightened tensions over Greenland between US and…Denmark (I can’t believe it’s a thing), Trump has finally announced a deal that would avoid a confrontation. Still, looks like everyone involved is still very nervous: Denmark’s king announced a visit to Greenland, while European powers are meeting with Denmark in preparation for negotiations.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because it’s not over until it’s over. Sure, there’s a path to a diplomatic resolution, but it seems like everyone is still pretty shaken by the whole ordeal, causing both European powers and the US to tread lightly.

My Take: ✍️ The Greenland story is far from over, and I suspect we will see more tensions around the island. It’s impossible to overstate how much rests on a good resolution of the topic, and we all know that Trump is anything but predictable.

EU & India Sign Mother of All Deals

What Happened? European Union and India signed the “mother of all deals”, a comprehensive agreement between the two powers that cuts the majority of tariffs on goods between the two, doubles exports by 2032 and create additional investment opportunities. Definitely a happy day for Kaja Kallas and Ursula von der Leyen.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because India and the EU are heeding Mark Carney’s call and effectively creating their own little club. But since they represent 25% of global GDP, it’s quite an effing club. This deal helps both sides reduce reliance on the US.

There’s also a decarbonization angle here: India will be subject to CBAM, but the EU will help India deal with it by investing 500M EUR to help India curb down emissions.

My Take: ✍️ I’ve written plenty about Europe’s dilemmas, and it seems like instead of relying on China more (it still kind of does), the EU is seeking a partnership with India to strengthen its economy. What a move!

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Rare Earths Continue to Rock the Boat

What Happened: The Rare Earth market is still boiling hot: First, the Trump Administration is signaling future priorities on critical minerals and Rare Earths, with a shift away from price floors (the likes given to MP Materials) and a DOE realignment toward processing, capacity building and innovation.

At the same time, the Administration invested $1.5B in USA Rare Earth, a company that controls Heavy Rare Earths deposits, which are critical for defense applications.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this might seem like small developments, but they are a part of a broader strategy employed by the US to build capacity and break free from China’s capabilities:

My Take: ✍️ While I’m not sure about moving away from price floors is a great idea (and ultimately, it is mostly motivated by lack of support from Congress), these moves address the right weaknesses in Western mineral capabilities.

I’m super excited about what is happening in this market, and it looks like the market is as well in general (not investment advice of course).

Hyperscalers Try to Rebrand Data Centers, but They Keep Dying in the US

What Happened: Data Centers evoke strong emotions on both sides of the Data Center Wars. They are also not very popular in the US. Meta is trying to change that with a $6M investment in ads and campaigns to rebrand data centers and extol their benefits to society (jobs, energy and the likes).

Meanwhile, as Heatmap News reports weekly, data centers keep on being rejected by communities across the US, including in Wisconsin and Georgia.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Data Center Wars are far from being over. They are only getting started, as both proponents and opponents of Data Centers keep trying to score points on the board.

My Take: ✍️ I still think operators and hyperscalers are going about this the wrong way. Want to build? Engage communities, be transparent, work with local officials. Buying ads is not going to cut it this time.

In Other News:

📰 10 countries have ganged up to build up to 100GW of wind power in the North Sea, while Trump walks back on Wind ban (oh hey that worked out well)

📰 EVs are having a killer week, as they outsold petrol cars in the EU for the first time, and are constantly expanding in the US under Trump, a new study shows (so… should I buy one or not?!)

📰 Michigan brought a new type of lawsuit against oil companies: Antitrust! 👉(should I coordinate a response?)

📰 South Africa experienced floods that were made worse by La Nina and Climate Change

📰 Ski Resorts are now using drones to help with plowing snow, while winter sports are trying to adapt to climate change. (New winter sports: Running away from climate change)

📰 China solar companies warn of a major demand slump (I’d love to help demand but ain’t got no money)

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ released her book, the Mining Imperative and shared her personal story. I’m a big fan of Amanda’s work and highly recommend it!

✍️ caught the Moltbot frenzy a minute before it went hot - kudos!

✍️ showed how Minister Anand’s Arctic speech framed Russia as the primary threat while skirting hard choices on NATO, NORAD, and northern nation‑building in the Arctic.

✍️ showed why CoreWeave matters less as a depreciation story and more as indispensable AI war infrastructure.

✍️ explored how China’s generative AI ecosystem is fueled by the private sector

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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Happy New Year!

This is the first roundup of 2026, and I’m full of excitement about what’s ahead. This year, hopefully, I’ll expand my coverage and bring you a broader spectrum of hidden signals, changes and developments, and more deeper‑dive, analysis‑driven essays.

Yes, the tacky humor will likely remain. No, you cannot file a complaint.

And while we’re at it, if you haven’t had a chance to catch my 2025 end-of-year recap, here’s me reminding you that you can read it here:

Some notes:

• I admit this roundup is lighter than usual due to the holidays, but I can’t wait for all the happenings of the coming year.

• The roundup will appear next week like usual, but after then I will be off for two weeks. But fear not, I will be working on a collection of essays on a few topics that are on my mind of late: India, Data Centers, US-CN relations, Rare Earths and Insurance.

Hope you enjoy this edition of the roundup, and here’s to a great 2026!

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• India added 44.5 GW in renewable capacity in 2025 (pack your bags we’re going to Delhi)

• China’s MOFCOM calls EU’s CBAM tightening unfair (trade meets kindergarten)

The Smaller Things

• Japan wants rare earths and is willing to mine the seabed (DSM is now big in Japan)

• Dan Wang’s Annual Letter (I think I have a new hero)

The Talk of the Town

• The Mineral Imperative, Startups are Media Companies, Export Controls and Stablecoins (and much more)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

India Reported Adding 44.5GW of Renewables in 2025

What Happened? India has just announced that it has added 44.5GW of renewable energy, with the majority of capacity coming from Solar, and some from Wind. This announcement comes a few months after India’s announcement that it has managed to power 50% of its total electricity from renewable sources and is linked to India’s goal of achieving 500GW in renewable capacity by 2030.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a part of India’s wider ambitions for growth and hegemony. While India has not reached China’s scale, it is quickly following suit and using renewables to power its growing economy at lower costs, gain energy security and build a domestic solar industry.

My Take: ✍️ India is the next big thing in renewable energy, and will likely help keeping the energy transition going as China reports slowdown for the first time in lord knows how long.

China’s MOFCOM Complains about EU’s CBAM

What Happened? Two weeks ago I reported on the EU’s intention to strengthen its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and close some loopholes:

Well, China is not too happy about it. China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) has called this step “unfair” and and has threatened to take ‘appropriate measures’ in response. Yeah, they are not too happy about this, I guess.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is the last thing Europe needs, a tariff war with China. China is a major EU trading partner and a superpower in the making. It’s unclear whether the EU can withstand a trade war with China. China does not shy away from weaponizing chokepoints. Again, lord knows there is no shortage of those.

My Take: ✍️ Europe’s dilemma on China has just become very real: Strengthen climate or risk angering China. We’ll have to see what is Europe’s next step, and whether Beijing will retaliate or it’s just blowing off steam.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Japan is Testing Out New Deep-Sea Mining Method

What Happened: Japan decided to test a new method for mining rare earths from the bottom of the sea. In this new pilot, a vessel will continuously lift mud rich in rare earths from 6,000 meters depth and ship it for assessment. If the pilot is successful, this will become a permanent thing.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a part of the Mineral Cold War, and Japan is trying something entirely different than most of its Western allies. Deep Sea Mining is a controversial method of extracting minerals and other resources, with significant environmental concerns. Japan does not seem deterred, effectively being one of the only countries in the world actively pursuing rare earth mud mining.

My Take: ✍️ The race is on, and Japan seems to be in a pinch to supply its own rare earths. With tensions rising high between Tokyo and Beijing, Japan understands that it must decouple from China as much as it can.

Easy Christmas? No Way

What Happened: On Christmas Eve, Russia decided it was cool to send a TU-95 strategic bomber to the Norwegian sea. The bomber had no missiles on board, but its location begs the question - why? Obviously, because Russia can.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is example #50004048 of increased Russian aggression towards the Nordic countries.

My Take: ✍️ Sure, why not. It was a slow news week anyway, so why not provoke someone.

Dan Wang’s Annual Letter

What Happened: Ok, not exactly a happening per se, but published his annual letter, and it is a masterpiece of writing and analysis. In it, Wang provides an updated take on the US-China competition and provides his take on what both sides get right and get wrong (at least, that’s how I read it). Wang covers a wide range of topics: from magical thinking and the wonders of Silicon Valley to Chinese competition.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Wang’s voice represents a growing thread of thinking on US-China relations and his thoughts represent both a growing consensus of how the US should compete, but also an accurate view on the differences between the two countries.

My Take: ✍️ I admit I have not read Breakneck just yet, but it’s definitely on my to do!

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ shared details about her forthcoming book, the Mineral Imperative. Can’t wait to read it!

✍️ taught us all about stablecoins in the best possible way: with memes!

✍️ published part II of his overview of the business of Geopolitics, helping us see how geopolitics as a trade is evolving in the AI era.

✍️ wrote a great piece about how startups act today as media companies - which got me thinking - can climate startups do the same?

✍️ claims that export controls are working and hurting China. We’ve seen them hurt the US on rare earths, so overall agree.

✍️ shared an overview of the Northern Sea Route, a topic I care deeply about

✍️ and shared Miller’s take on the importance of manufacturing. Personally, I thought it was a great take that helps spell much clarity on the topic

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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First thing's first - Happy Holidays to all of my friends and colleagues who are on their way to vacation! May you all have a great new year!

Now lets get to it!

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Bernie Sanders joins the Data Center Wars (I still think we need a lightsaber fight)

• Europe zig-zags on climate policy (do the Brussels dance: one step forward, half a step backwards)

The Smaller Things

• Putin builds a floating base in the Arctic (I guess an Igloo is out of the question?)

• Solar developers love sheep now (Solar & Sheep is now all the rage with Gen Alpha)

• Trump Media to merge with TAE Energy (the corporate version of YOLO)

The Talk of the Town

• Russia’s Mineral Empire, US-China Detente with Mike Froman, the role of Geopolitics in the corporate world and so much more!

Creator Shoutout

• Neural Foundry (Thoughtful, original and sometimes contrarian views on AI and Infra)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Jedi Master Sanders Joins the Data Center Wars

What Happened? Sheesh, the data center wars are not slowing down. Senator Bernie Sanders joined calls for a national moratorium on new data centers, setting off a storm of statements and quote-tweets on X. David Sacks was very vocal for once.

Meanwhile, FERC – the federal energy regulator – wants big data centers to plug directly into power plants, sidestepping regional grid operators like PJM.

Want more? the SPEED act, which will allow to skirt environmental reviews, passed through the House and went to the Senate, not without controversy over renewables.

Still not enough? Democrats are looking to investigate data centers over consumer prices. And, like every other week, more and more data centers find themselves at the crosshairs of local opposition.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because just when the US seems to need as many data centers as it can get to “beat” China (whatever that means), the backlash against them grows, and continues to escalate. There are no signs that this trend is likely to subside, and while it might be easier to build from a regulatory perspective, local opposition remains forceful and effective.

My Take: ✍️ I still think Lightsabers are the best way to sort this out, and seems like Master Bernie decided to pick up his Saber.

Europe Zigs and Zags on Climate

What Happened? Speaking of Europe, the NYT just published a scathing review of the continent’s marvelous zig‑zagging on climate policy (second only to one Mark Carney). The zig and zag continued this week: Europe moved to water down the 2035 combustion‑engine ban, while the EU simultaneously decided to strengthen the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism despite U.S. pressure.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is exactly how Europe’s grand climate dilemma plays out: One step forward, half a step backwards. I wrote about this here:

My Take: ✍️ I do not envy Brussels and the dilemmas the EU is juggling. Expect many more zigs and zags as the continent tries to navigate an increasingly hostile US, aggressive Russia, and assertive China. Europe will keep making selective concessions in the name of “competitiveness,” but this looks more like a wobble than a full‑on climate U‑turn.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Putin is Building a North Pole Base

What Happened: Man, Putin is really going all in on the Arctic. This week, the Russian President approved the Arthur Chilingarov Ice Base, a drifting ice camp established on the Arctic. It’s not the first Russian drifting ice, and Moscow has much experience with such… gimmicks?

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because whether or not this base is practical and meant for the long-haul or not, this is Moscow sending a clear message that it is an Arctic superpower. This move directly builds on Putin’s designation of 2027 as the year of Geography, a move I’ve previously covered:

My Take: ✍️ I know, I know, it sounds funny, but this move is yet another way for Moscow to strengthen its foothold over the Arctic. It might be a gimmick, but my sense is that Putin will find a way to use it to sow more instability in the region.

Solar & Sheep

What Happened: Solar and Sheep sounds like a new disturbing social phenomenon, but it’s actually a neat little climate‑era innovation. On solar farms built over farmland, overgrown grass is a real headache, so instead of spraying herbicides, developers now hire sheep to do the mowing — they graze under the panels, can slip between the hardware, and, unlike goats, don’t try to eat it.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because a huge share of solar is going onto farmland, and all that extra grass can quietly harm the project’s economics by jacking up OpEx. Using sheep instead of herbicides is a low-carbon, nature-friendly solution

My Take: ✍️ My wife’s mom, who lives on a remote farm in Australia, experienced Solar & Sheep personally, living next to an Agrovoltaic field. Yeah, It’s pretty cool.

Trump Media and Fusion Company to Merge

What Happened: Trump Media, the parent company of Truth Social, is merging with nuclear fusion developer TAE Energy in a deal that sounds less like a business strategy and more like a sci‑fi crossover episode.

Wait, what?

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is very strange, but also can be the start of a trend towards vertical integration in the AI and Media space. As largescale AI users are looking for energy sources, merging with energy providers might be a way to bring energy into the organization and avoid complex contractual arrangements.

Or, it can be a financial bet on Fusion energy, a growing field that is aggressively promoted by the Trump Administration.

My Take: ✍️ Well, to me this is the corporate version of YOLO.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ was very busy this week, with new takes on Russia’s mining empire, Gold and Fiber Optics. Way to go Amanda!

✍️ shares exciting progress on Autoimmune diseases and bumper-to-bumper charging, and brings an interesting take on startups: Mission as an API.

✍️ help a very interesting interview with none other than (I’m a bit of a fan) on US-China relations.

✍️ explores the role of Geopolitics advisory in the business world. Take his word for it - he’s a pro!

✍️ provides a guide on how to invest in Data Centers and explains the capital flows. Super interesting read!

🖇️ Jonathan Foley argues the AI carbon emission problem is less bad than you think.

🖇️ Prof. Koen Binnemans created a great illustration of how rare are different metals, including rare earths.

🐤 Craig Tindell shares a longform analysis of critical minerals

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

Neural Foundry:

Neural Foundry Substack

My personal Substack

Neural Foundry provides deep, thoughtful and from-experience takes on AI and infrastructure, written by an engineer with a great sense of writing.

I read a lot of AI newsletters and Neural Foundry is one of my favorites. This substack helps you get a deep sense of where the tech landscape is going.

Neural Foundry often provides thoughtful contrarian views (“Sam Altman Has No Idea What He is Doing”) that show original thought and a deep level of analysis (while staying accessible).

Check it out here.

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Denmark goes HAM on the US (Oh hey Denmark, you finally noticed Trump wants Greenland)

• More trouble is brewing in the Arctic (quick, someone call Pierce Brosnan out of retirement)

• While new AI preemption EO is published, orgs call for a data center moratorium (can we have an epic lightsaber battle to decide?)

The Smaller Things

• Trove of new critical minerals discovered in Utah (but it’s not going to help a lot in unseating China)

• Romania to build a Rare Earth refinery (now, this is the way to counter China)

• China and France reaffirm commitment to climate diplomacy and multilateralism (China is now the prom chaperone)

The Talk of the Town

• Cement-pooping bacteria, US NSS on Minerals, Arctic Sea-Salt, 2025 recapped for Chinese AI and more!

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Denmark goes HAM on the US

What Happened? This week, Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) labeled the US a security risk for the first time, citing Washington’s ambitions in Greenland. The report points to the new US National Security Strategy, warning that Washington uses economic pressure and even the threat of force, including against allies.

I dug into this story before:

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the US’s ambitions to take over Greenland are a part of the broader geopolitical realignment. Danish warnings come at the same time as Greenland refuses to let Starlink enter the country, citing concerns over Musk’s ties to the Administration. And let’s not even get started with Russia and China...

My Take: ✍️ The US tried to calm things down, but the Arctic is experiencing a seismic shift. Honestly, this is starting to look like a Mexican Standoff. To quote Key and Peele’s epic skit: “Who’s double-crossing themselves while dressed as each other”.

More Troubles in the Arctic

What Happened? As if the US-Denmark rift wasn’t enough, the Arctic had another banner week for bad news. Russia’s navy chief accused NATO of stepping up spying in the region, just as Canada rolled out a new partnership to close its Arctic military communications gap. At the same time, a new report details Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics on Svalbard since 2014, and experts warn that the Ambler road approved by the Trump Administration could push Alaska’s Arctic to the brink.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the pace of events in the Arctic is picking up, from climate degradation to geopolitical tensions. It’s hard at this point to say anything with certainty, but it does seem like the Arctic is gearing for something bigger.

My Take: ✍️ Are we on the way to the Second South China Sea in the Arctic? Maybe I’ll post some thoughts about this soon!

Calls for US Data Center Moratorium

What Happened? While everyone is talking about the AI Preemption Executive Order that somewhat preempts state AI regulation1, a new kind of moratorium is gaining steam in the US, one diametrically opposed to the Trump Administration’s policy: Stop building data centers.

Over 230 organizations have sent an open letter to Congress, asking it to take action and forbid the construction of new data centers, citing environmental concerns and rising energy prices.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because these movements tends to have lives of their own. It’s easy to dismiss them as a bunch of hippies, but with NIMBY already reshaping data center buildout in the US, this moratorium call might travel further than people expect. Congress is unlikely to act, but the pressure on local politicians, developers and even Hyperscalers is real.

My Take: ✍️ Are we seeing the tides turning against Data Centers, or will the Trump Administration prevail? Only one way to decide: Lightsaber Duel.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Lots of New Minerals for the US

What Happened: Ionic Minerals Technology, a US critical minerals company, has uncovered a gargantuan deposit at its Silicon Ridge mine in Utah, containing germanium, gallium and 14 other critical materials used in advanced technologies. Some countries have all the luck, I guess.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because in the race for mineral security, every new domestic source helps. This find gives Washington more room to build out alternative supply chains and chip away at its dependence on China.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah, this is great and stuff, but the real bottleneck lies in refining, separation and product integration. The US remains heavily reliant on China, and this new deposit won’t radically change the strategic dependency unless refining capacity scales up at home or with trusted partners.

Romania Joins the Rare Earth Gang

What Happened: Speaking of breaking China’s grip on critical minerals, here’s something that will actually move the needle: Critical Metals has announced a JV with Romania’s FPCU to build a rare earth processing plant in Romania. The facility will handle up to 50% of the output from the Tanbreez mine in Greenland.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because unlike mining, refining is the real chokehold. This refinery does help ameliorate the West’s refining soft spot. This deal follows MP Materials’ JV with Maaden to build a refinery in Saudi Arabia, putting Europe on the map with respect to the ability to counter China’s stranglehold over rare earth processing.

My Take: ✍️ We’re literally witnessing the reconfiguration of rare earths in the making, one deal after another. Exciting times ahead. My bet is China is looking closely and looking for ways to strengthen its position, while more deals are likely to follow.

France and China Collaborate on Climate

What Happened: During a state visit to China, French President Macron and Chinese President Xi issued a joint statement pledging deeper cooperation on climate change and environmental challenges, and voicing renewed support for multilateral climate institutions and processes such as the IPCC.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because while the US turned away from both climate action and multilateralism, China is stepping into the void and is taking a leadership position on global affairs, with climate change being a key priority for Beijing.

My Take: ✍️ Nature abhors a vacuum, and this is no exception. Beijing has consistently used US strategic retrenchment to cast itself as the engine of the very multilateral order it once resisted, and climate diplomacy is a particularly convenient arena given China’s ability to scale climate tech and energy capacity at astonishing speed.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ provides a mineral-focused analysis of the US National Security Strategy and explores the ESG aspects of mining.

✍️ shares the news about cement-pooping bacteria and cosmic candy (I still can’t believe it’s real!)

✍️ shares his report and takeaways on Data Centers and NIMBYism

🔗 Matthew Henry shares a new study on marine cloud brightening in the Arctic, showing that sea-salt particles can help restore Arctic sea ice

✍️ explores the rise of sovereign clouds and the shifts in the investment landscape that are taking place

✍️ of ChinaTalk recaps Chinese AI’s 2025, looking at robotics, policy and US-China competition. Extra recommended to those who want to understand the big picture of AI and China

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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If you happened to receive this email from a friend, please consider subscribing. If you’re already a part of this community, I’d love it if you could recommend it to a friend.

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TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• US launched a new National Security Strategy (wait where’s the Arctic in this one)

• China eases rare earth element export controls (see you at the next round Beijing)

• The Arctic Heats Up, Slowly (Putin makes a lot of people nervous or something)

• Big week for Data Centers and Nuclear (lots of drama in DataCenterLand)

The Smaller Things

• Zillow deletes its climate risk function (I guess it worked too well?)

• Personal stories over the climate insurance crunch (there are people behind numbers)

The Talk of the Town

• Genesis Mission, cold-war AI, AI jagged frontiers, China’s 2025 climate scores and dispatches from Aceh

Creator Spotlight

• Sustainability by the Numbers (Hannah Richie breaks down climate debates with actual facts)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

US launches a new National Security Strategy

What Happened? While this is not a NatSec blog, I did want to highlight the new National Security Strategy (NSS) document published by the Trump Administration this week. This 20‑something‑page document defines (or redefines) America’s priorities in the region, while effectively declaring that America is “soo back”.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this document defines the US’s national security priorities and essentially tells us how the Trump Administration sees the world. If you’ve been following US moves this past year, you probably can already guess 80% of the document.

My Take: ✍️ I’ll let the geopolitics experts weigh in, but as far as my coverage is concerned, I am somewhat surprised by the scant to no attention to the Arctic and to rare earths (only one reference), given how much attention the US gives these two topics in practice.

China Eases Rare Earth Export Controls (For Now)

What Happened? Following its announced truce with the US, China has finally issued new licenses to export rare earths. These one‑year, more flexible export licenses were given to three Chinese companies. Still, it doesn’t seem like China has changed its policies in a strategic or structural way.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this looks like a tactical pause in the US‑China minerals cold war, and it’s still unclear how deep or lasting the easing will be.

My Take: ✍️ Nice move by Beijing, but I don’t see China’s move impacting the global race for mineral independence, given that the Chinese can just shut the floodgates the next time Trump gets under their skin.

The Arctic Gets Hotter, Slowly

What Happened? There’s a lot happening on the Arctic front: NATO chief Mark Rutte stopped in Reykjavik to highlight Iceland’s strategic role, NATO’s Standing Maritime Group 1 deployed to Norway’s Arctic waters, and Norway ordered more submarines for ‘turbulent times’. Oh yeah, cool as a cucumber.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Arctic is turning into a contested arena for asymmetric pressure - informational, economic and military - and Russia’s recent moves have NATO states visibly on edge.

My Take: ✍️ You’d be surprised at just how much the the Russia‑Ukraine peace talks are making Northern states nervous, many of them worried that Putin will turn to the high north next.

Big Week for Data Centers and Nuclear

What Happened? Nuclear and data centers both had a big week, full of drama and fun. Google is exploring nuclear power for an Iowa data center in Tornado Alley, and the Trump administration just committed $800M to next‑gen nuclear projects. At the same time, Georgia proposed letting data centers contract directly with clean‑energy developers, PJM’s ombudsman warned against adding more data centers to an already‑strained grid, and a new report says data centers could use about 40 percent more electricity than previously expected.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the issues of data centers, the grid and nuclear power are intertwined. Whether the US can power data centers or not will have significant consequences.

My Take: ✍️ The landscape really is chaotic: tech, utilities, regulators and nuclear are all pulling in different directions, and there’s no coherent plan yet. Right now it looks less like a strategy and more like a live‑fire experiment in how far the grid can stretch.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Zillow Deletes its Climate Risk Feature

What Happened: Home‑buying platform Zillow removed a feature it launched last year that let buyers see a property’s exposure to climate risks like floods, wind and fire. The change came after real‑estate agents and homeowners complained the scores were arbitrary and hurt sales. Instead of in‑house scores, Zillow now links out to First Street, the nonprofit that powered the original tool.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Zillow’s move shows two things at once: First, that climate risk warnings do in fact work (perhaps too well) and influence people’s decisions, and that the tide has in fact turned against climate monitoring and transportability. Neither is a great sign.

My Take: ✍️ I guess some things work a little too well. Zillow may solve a short‑term sales problem, but it’s inviting a longer‑term fight over how much climate risk buyers deserve to see upfront.

Home Insurance Sees Climate Crunch

What Happened: The NYT has gathered stories and evidence of how the rise in climate related disasters are influencing home insurance, chronicling everyday Americans’ encounters with increased premiums and reduced coverage.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because behind statistics there are people who cannot afford insurance and see their coverage declining, and the NYT has done a great job in capturing these stories.

My Take: ✍️ The Insurance market in the US is experiencing a visible and noticeable crunch that is only set to increase as the planet becomes more volatile. I suspect we will see more and more of these stories popping up, and not only during national-scale disasters.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ explores the Genesis Mission and an app-replacing agentic future

✍️ interviews about her new role at CSET, AI’s Jagged Frontier and more. It’s a wonderful interview that explores modern think-tanking and the frontiers of AI research.

✍️ recaps 2025 for China’s energy and climate. It’s a lot more complicated than you’d think and far more nuanced.

✍️ explores the connection between extraction economics to the recent mudslides in Aceh in a deeply personal and beautifully written essay.

✍️ warns of possible overinvestments in AI and brings up a Cold-War corollary

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

Sustainability by the Numbers

Sustainability by numbers

Using data and research to understand what really makes a difference

By Hannah Ritchie

authors an excellent evidence-based substack dedicated to bringing balance and nuance to the sustainability debate.

Her writing is accessible and engaging and makes delving into the data fun and easy. Reading Ritchie’s blog, it is easy to orient around hard cold facts that are often confusing and locked away in complex industry jargon.

Personally, I can’t wait to read the next post and make sure to look at her work to inform my own writing.

Check it out here!

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Share A World Reconfigured

Hey everyone!

Thanksgiving is upon us. While I personally don’t celebrate, I wish all of my friends and colleagues in the US a happy holiday.

You probably have received countless lectures on what you should be grateful for, so I am not going to add one.

Instead, I’m just going to say that I’m thankful for (1) 2025 not being all that much worse; (2) discovering Substack and the wonderful community; (3) the many writers on this platform who work hard to bring the most interesting takes and thoughts out there.

Ok, now, let’s get back to it👇

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• US launched the Genesis Mission (aka AI Manhattan Project)

• UK issues a critical minerals strategy (but isn’t spending enough money on it)

• Finland has a new Arctic strategy (which is to high-five Canada)

• China goes big on the global stage (fusion energy and rare earths)

The Smaller Things

• NYC Comptroller suggests pensions drop BlackRock (so much for Fink’s 2020 letter)

• Gas station operators prepare for the EV future (can I play the Arcade while I’m charging?)

The Talk of the Town

• Africa’s critical mineral future, gratitude for food, the political mistakes of the climate movement and more

Creator Spotlight

• Amanda’s Substack (critical minerals for the win!)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

US Launched the Genesis Mission, an AI Manhattan Project

What Happened? The US has announced the launch of the Genesis Mission, which surprisingly does not involve going anywhere. Rather, it is a push to unite federal agencies, labs and supercomputers on one platform. It will use vast federal datasets to train large models that turbocharge science, energy and security research with AI, led by the Department of Energy.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because, as explained by Sebastian Barros, this is a US attempt to respond to China’s encompassing state ecosystem to use AI for its own progress and is an equivalent of an AI Manhattan Project.

My Take: ✍️ Super cool. There are risks, but overall this is an important development. It’s about time the US used AI at full tilt for science again – this feels like the America I grew up with, one that advances science, technology and energy.

UK Wants Critical Mineral Independence

What Happened? The UK has released this week a shiny new strategy to increase its critical mineral independence. Under the new plan, the UK will invest 50M GBP in projects that will boost UK mineral production, and will aim to produce 10% of the UK’s mineral needs (and up to 20% with recycling) by 2035.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because it’s about time the UK did something. While others rushed to counter China’s dominance, the UK was asleep; now it finally seems to be taking the challenge seriously, which is good news for Europe’s bid to decouple from China.

My Take:✍️ Really? 50M GBP?

That will barely cover… anything. The UK needs bigger, bolder, more innovative moves if it truly wants mineral independence.

Finland Has a New Arctic Strategy

What Happened? Finland has released a new Arctic Strategy amid growing regional tensions, positioning itself as an Arctic stabilizer. The document spells out its view of great‑power competition in the region, names friends and foes, and shows a clear soft spot for Canada.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️Because Finland is obviously nervous about the growing instability of what was once a pinnacle of global collaboration and cooperation. Reading through the document, it almost seems Finland realizes we’re not in Kansas anymore and is looking to position itself as an Arctic protector and to find partners to share the load.

My Take:✍️ Finland is right to be nervous and to seek new partners. Mark Carney’s Canada is stepping up in the Arctic and looks like a strong non‑Nordic partner at a time when Russian and Chinese activity means Finland will need all the help it can get to keep the region stable.

China is Swinging for the Fences on the World Stage

What Happened? This week, China rolled out two big initiatives to reshape its global role. One is the Fusion Coalition with 10 countries (including France, the UK and Germany), and the other is a Rare Earths Bloc against the US with 19 developing countries such as Zimbabwe and Myanmar.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because China isn’t resting on its laurels and is actively working to bolster its geopolitical stance through diplomacy and scientific collaborations, at times with the US’s own set of allies.

My Take: ✍️ Decoupling from China is messy and complex. I expect to see more of this fragmentation and additional attempts by China to court partners with ambitious scientific and trade collaborations.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

NYC Comptroller Puts a Bullseye on BlackRock

What Happened: Departing NYC Comptroller Brand Lander decided to comptroll recommend that pension boards should drop BlackRock, Fidelity and PanAgora for having inadequate climate policies.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a highly influential decision, which could cost the fund manager a lot of money, and signals a renewed push towards climate policies in the Trump era. This could be a first sign of a sea change in corporate governance, but could also be just one isolated case. We’ll see.

My Take: ✍️ Larry Fink isn’t so hot in the climate circles these days, is he?1 🤓

Gas Stations Prepare for the EV Consumer

What Happened: Nobody wants to linger at gas stations; it’s usually get in, get gas, get out. But as EVs spread, chains like WaWa and Sheetz are retooling their sites with cleaner bathrooms, WiFi and upgraded stores to keep drivers happy while they charge.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ With EVs projected to reach 78M by 2035, gas stations need to update the customer experience for longer charging stops. Because charging is far less profitable than gasoline, chains like WaWa and Sheetz are betting future margins will come from food, drinks and other in‑store sales.

My Take: ✍️ I don’t have an EV (yet!), but if I did, I would surely want to pass the time while I’m charging my vehicle. Personally, I wouldn’t mind an epic Arcade while charging.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ shares a special food episode of his great weekly take just for thanksgiving!

✍️ launches his consulting career - congrats Alan and good luck!

✍️ shares her take on Africa’s ability to attract investors (thanks, Mali!)

✍️ shares a great recap and analysis of the Genesis Mission (and calls it the AI Manhattan Project, which I like very much)

✍️ shares his annual Thanksgiving reflections on a variety of macro topics. Very much recommended!

🎥 Robinson Meyer appeared at about the miscalculations of the climate movement

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

Amanda’s Substack (Critical Minerals)

Amanda’s Substack

My personal Substack

By Amanda van Dyke

is a real expert on critical minerals and rare earths. Her writing offers well‑written, accessible takes on the complex world of minerals.

Amanda’s writing features rare takes on rare earths, covering the dynamics of each mineral in detail. She helps her readers to understand that rare earths are not all the same and provides illuminating facts and analysis about them.

Her coverage spans across rare earth elements (e.g., Scandium), the dynamics of key critical minerals (e.g., the structural deficits of Copper) and geopolitical movements (e.g., tarriffs) and is always incredibly accessible and easy to read.

Personally, Amanda’s substack has become my go-to source to better understand the critical minerals industry.

Check it out here!

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

Subscribe now

See you next week!

If you happened to receive this email from a friend, please consider subscribing. If you’re already a part of this community, I’d love it if you could recommend to a friend.

Hey everyone!

After a small hiatus caused by laziness air travel and a nasty cold, I am back with your favorite anti-FOMO newsletter.

I was able to share a few takes from my latest trip, though:

Anyway, let’s get back to it! 👇

TL;DR

• The Bigger Things:

  • COP30 is a mixed bag (and people are disappointed with China)

  • Rare Earths make their way to Riyadh (the Saudi Crown Jewels)

  • DOE shakes things up (climate out, fossil fuels and geothermal in)

• The Smaller Things:

  • Putin is sending his henchman to the Arctic (he really wants Svalbard I guess)

  • China, Europe set green steel standards at COP30 (this is a first for me)

  • EU is watering its ESG rules and delays deforestation law (quick, act surprised!)

• The Talk of the Town:

  • Lessons from Rare earths, more China visit, civil discourse on explosive topics

• Creator Spotlight:

  • ChinaTalk (Jordan Schneider covered China before it was cool)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

COP30 is a mixed bag

What Happened? COP30 is about to end, after two very packed weeks. I wasn’t there, but from all I’ve read, there seemed to be no shortage of action: Tug-of-war negotiations on fossil fuels phaseout, first ever discussion of rare earth elements (and how bad they are for the environment), fundraising for the Rainforest fund ($5B are in the bag!); protests and one very ironic fire. Finally, everyone seems to be disappointed in China for not being the climate leader we all wanted it to be.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ COP30 took place at a time of growing public fatigue and disinterest in the climate crisis, while the climate itself doesn’t care that we’re tired. COP30 does not seem to tilt the scales nearly enough towards climate action, though it is clear we need coordinated, global action more than ever. Well, at least China gave Panda tote bags 🐼

My Take:✍️ There are plenty of takes out there (and most of them are painting a dim picture), but I had to say something. That something is:

Rare Earths✈️Riyadh

What Happened? President Trump’s welcoming of Saudi Crown Prince MBS took place this week. Everyone seemed to focus on fighter jets, deals and the geopolitics of the whole shindig.

What people missed, in my view, is what happened halfway around the world in Riyadh: The US’s MP Materials and Saudi Ma’aden signed a joint venture to build a rare earth refinery in Saudi. Looks like everyone wins here: US diversifies its REE supply chain, MBS diversifies his economy as part of Vision 2030 and MP materials gets a share bump. Well, everyone except China, that is.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️Because Rare Earths are now the linchpin of global trade and geopolitics, and while they don’t always get their fair share of the spotlight, they are becoming increasingly a dominant feature of the current geostrategic landscape.

My Take:✍️ This is an important milestone, with the US, through MP Materials, starting to make serious moves to break China’s dominance over processing and refining, and replacing it with a distributed network of refining capabilities centered around its allies globally.

Big shakeups in US DOE: Climate out, everything else in

What Happened? Everyone is talking about the sweeping overhaul of US environmental protections, overturned this week by the Trump Administration and Congress.

However, the reorganization of the US Dept. of Energy might be equally important. Focusing on fossil fuels and Nuclear, the recent shakeup disbanded Biden-era offices dedicated to clean energy (like Demonstrations and Renewable Energy), renamed the LPO to Office of Energy Dominance Financing (okay…), and created new offices related to Hydrocarbons and critical minerals. Heatmap News published an excellent recap and takeaways!

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this shakeup is the latest signal by the Trump Administration that it cares mostly about Fossil Fuels, Nuclear, Geothermal and critical minerals. This is a clear indication of where the financing and regulating power of the department will turn in months and years to come.

My Take: ✍️ The critical minerals office is a pleasant surprise

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Putin sent his henchman to the Arctic

What Happened: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev spent some time this week in Svalbard, deep in the Arctic Circle. He visited Arktikugol, the firm representing Russia in Svalbard. Trutnev said “Today, amid the rising international tensions, it is of fundamental importance to us that none of the rights that Russia has acquired […] should be lost”.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Putin is amping up his rhetoric over Svalbard and the Arctic Circle, slow but steady. Trutnev’s words should be taken in the context of the growing military buildup of the Northern Fleet and attempts to present Russia as a victim of Western aggression in the Arctic. Oh boy.

My Take: ✍️ I dunno, but every time Putin talks about historical rights I get the jitters and a weird feeling that he’s going to invade.

Europe and China set green steel standards

What Happened: One of the good things coming out of COP30 has to do with Green Steel. In a landmark agreement, ResponsibleSteel, China’s Iron and Steel Association and Europe’s Low Emission Steel Standard have reached an agreement to allow interoperable standards.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Steel is responsible for 7-9% of global emissions, so any acceleration of its decarbonized variant will pack a big punch. This new agreement will help solve a lot of headaches and will ease green steel trade. It also sets the stage for further EU-China collaboration on the topic.

My Take: ✍️ I love green steel, and like everything new, we need to have the mechanisms in place to accelerate its adoption. Overall, I find it to be one of the more helpful announcements coming out of COP. I know, I’m a bit of a nerd.

Europe needs to make up its mind on climate

What Happened: This week, while EU leaders are at COP, member states are pushing to delay the Deforestation Law (EUDR) by one year and the Commission has unveiled a very watered down version of the ESG disclosure rules for asset managers.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because these two announcements put the EU at an awkward position, as its leaders try to negotiate stronger fossil fuel phaseout deal at COP30. Readers of this newsletter will not be surprised to see Europe’s confused and complex climate policy, which can only be described as the climate version of the Cha-Cha

My Take: ✍️ This isn’t the last of the European climate Cha-Cha that we’ll get to see. The EU faces strong dilemmas that are hard to square and pressures from all directions, so we can expect more confusing policy that is trying to keep everyone happy, but manages to please no one.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ continues his foray into Data Centers and tells the story of silicon time.

✍️ of gives a very helpful and illuminating overview of the moments of capital this past month in the climate tech space

✍️ continues to demystify rare earth elements critical minerals. This week: Tellurium and Titanium

🎥 interviewed Emerlad AI’s CEO on the two paths Data Centers can take: the Villain or Hero path

🎥 and hashed it out on the Doom Debates podcast. I listened to the entire thing and have a lot of takeaways. Mostly I salute🫡 both for the civil and thoughtful debate! (I might share my thoughts about this one later)

🖇️ CTVC published the full recap their CEO’s visit to China. Excellent and important read!

🐣 and engaged in a very public and very civil debate over Data Center water usage. Regardless of the tweetstorm, impact of DCs on communities is a topic worth following! (https://x.com/AndyMasley)

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

ChinaTalk

ChinaTalk

Deep coverage of technology, China, and US policy. We feature original analysis alongside interviews with leading thinkers and policymakers.

By Jordan Schneider

, and team were China experts before it was cool. I first started to listen to while I was a wee little Chief of Staff, trying to get a sense of the growing tensions between China and US and how it will impact the global business landscape and became a fan ever since.

Jordan and his team do a fantastic job in decoding China and unpacking the complex relationship it has with the US and the rest of the world, while bringing a nuanced view of the topic. Their reporting spans across geopolitics, tech, culture and more

ChinaTalk is full of great interviews with both prominent figures and professionals with a smaller media profile. If you’re new to their stuff, I recommend the Jake Sullivan interview, which I found thought provoking in particular.

Check it out here!

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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See you next week!