👋 Welcome to A World Reconfigured - your guide to a world changed by climate, geopolitics and technology. I write about how climate change is creating a new world with new rules, and often cover topics like the ❄️Arctic, 🤷‍♂️Rare Earths and 💻Data Centers.

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My Unsolicited Take: And Yet it Moves

Rejoice: An epic ceasefire is upon us!

Thanks to the powers that be, the Epic Fury that engulfed the Middle East has calmed down. While nothing seems to be resolved just yet and the ceasefire is still very much fragile, I welcome the temporary resumption of daily lives.

As we embrace the relative calm that has descended on the Middle East, a new storm is brewing far away, in the Pacific Ocean:

Super El Niño.

Oh great. A regular El Niño is bad enough. A super El Niño is going to be something else. By all accounts, it is likely going to bring about “punishing drought in some regions and severe storms in others, while also causing the Earth’s temperature to rise”.

We wanted to forget about Climate Change and focus on other things. The planet, on the hand, probably had other plans.

In face of is going to be a fixture of the coming years, I am reminded of Galileo’s Eppur si muove - And yet, it moves. I think it’s likely we’ll see Climate Change on the front pages soon enough.

Buckle up, it’s going to get rough.

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• US and EU want to sign a Critical Minerals pact (can I set my own price floor?)

• Greenland blocks a big rare earths mine (would you like a side of Uranium with that?)

The Smaller Things

• India is no longer willing to host COP33 (well it is a big party to organize and the guests always complain tbh)

• The UAE is going to the Arctic (they will arrive on a yacht)

In Other News: Russia warns Canada of “unintentional accidents” in the Arctic, EDF wants to electrify France and so much more.

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

US and EU to Reach Critical Minerals Agreement

What Happened? The EU and the US are on the verge of signing a comprehensive Critical Minerals pact. This pact gives something for everybody (except China): Brussels gets its producers closer to qualifying for US EV tax credits, Washington gets a clearer pipeline of “friendly” lithium, nickel and rare earths, and both get a framework for joint subsidies and offtakes that explicitly aims to reduce dependence on China.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because despite their mutual suspicion, both sides understand there are bigger things at stake, namely China’s dominance over rare earths and other critical minerals. This pact, if signed, is likely to usher a new stream of deals and will enable US companies, already operating in Europe, to enjoy better terms and conditions.

My Take: ✍️ I’ll believe it when I see it, but all in all sounds like good news.

Greenland Blocks Rare Earth Mine + Other Market Developments

What Happened? Remember the time everyone raved about Greenland’s critical minerals? Yeah, so not so fast: Greenland is moving to block the Kvanefjeld rare earths project by rejecting its licence renewal, effectively freezing one of the world’s largest undeveloped deposits amid local opposition and a ban on uranium mining.

Meanwhile, it’s not all bad news this week: Neo Performance has started producing heavy rare earth oxides at its Silmet site in Estonia and is ramping up a magnet plant in Narva, designed to provide Europe a small but real non‑Chinese processing and magnet manufacturing foothold.

Finally, the IEA this week released a rare earths report confirming what we talked about for the past few months, that China dominates magnet supply from mine to finished product. The IEA argues that ~$6.5 trillion of annual economic activity outside China relies on those magnets, while roughly $60 billion this decade could build alternative capacity.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this stream of news shows just how hard and non-linear mineral development is. On the one hand, you have excellent news coming from Estonia, with one step further in developing refining and magnet capacity outside of China. On the other hand, Greenland rejects the largest untapped mine at a time when the West needs it the most (as the IEA report clearly states).

My Take: ✍️ Oh boy this is just what Greenland needs right now, a big scandal about rare earths. I hope no one notices…

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

India Walks Back on Hosting COP33

What Happened: India has withdrawn its offer to host the COP33 UN climate summit in 2028, formally notifying the UNFCCC that it is stepping back from a bid Modi first announced at COP28. India claimed that this walkback is mostly technical.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because India is a rising player in the renewables and the decarbonization space with an growing track record, but recently has been walking back on a few commitments. It’s not clear whether this change is truly technical or it signifies a broader shift in strategy.

My Take: ✍️ I kind-of get it. Being host is never fun: You’re on the hook for drinks, you have to clean up and guests are never happy about the music. Also, who even wants to be accountable for 100+ countries agreeing on something.

But seriously, I am still bullish on India’s ability and willingness to decarbonize and grow its renewable capacity. It has all kinds of reasons to do so.

The UAE Goes to the Arctic

What Happened: The UAE has officially joined the Svalbard Treaty, becoming the 49th signatory and opening the door for Emirati scientists and institutions to operate research projects and other civilian activities in the Arctic archipelago under Norway’s sovereignty.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Arctic is truly a global issue, and there’s Gulf countries are not ones to miss a chance to be a part of the hottest show in town. While far away from the Middle East, it seems that the Arctic is recognized by the Emirates as a new frontier. It is likely the accession to the Svalbard treaty is an attempt to stay relevant in a newly developing geopolitical hotspot.

My Take: ✍️ Well that was definitely not in my 2026 bingo, but I think the more countries are involved in Polar research, the better. I salute the UAE’s astute geopolitical senses and wish my own country do the same. How about the Polar Abraham Accords?

Turkey, Empire of Batteries; Britain, Paragon of Sunshine

What Happened: A new EMBER report puts Turkey on track to overtake every EU country on battery storage, with more than 30 GW of projects approved as it scrambles for alternatives to volatile fossil fuel imports and coal-heavy power.

Meanwhile, Britain broke its solar generation record twice on the same day and gave the green light to the 800 MW Springwell solar farm in Lincolnshire, now set to become the country’s largest power‑producing solar project and supply electricity to around 180,000 homes.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is indicates the extent of Turkey’s energy ambitions and its capacity to become a renewables powerhouse, while the UK surprises everyone with new solar records, which is… well, unexpected.

My Take: ✍️ Another one not in my 2026 bingo. I’m not super surprised about Turkey, but you have to admit UK smashing solar records does not come to mind easily. Still, I guess this is good news for brits looking for a tan?

In Other News:

📰 Battery giant CATL taps Zijin founder as mining advisor (i wonder if they need a ghost blogger)

📰 EDF unveils €240m plan to boost electrification in France (anyone fancy an electric croissant?)

📰 Sweden's Stockholm Exergi advances massive bio-CCS plant capturing 800k tonnes CO2/year (Norway, watch out!)

📰 UK and Norway thwart Russian covert op near critical infrastructure (hey i was just passing by, nothing to see)

📰 Russia warns Arctic militarization by Canada & allies risks unintentional incidents (“uninternational incidents”… yeah ok)

📰 Microsoft pauses carbon removal purchases, shocking the industry it dominated (unless they can bundle in Copilot)

📰 AOMC merges with Odyssey to form $1B deep-sea miner (hang on to your undersea horses)

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My Unsolicited Take:

This past week we celebrated Passover.

It was a strange one. Given the ongoing war, my wife and I marked the Seder quietly at home rather than with our usual big family gathering (or travel, if i’m being honest).

On Passover we ask “Ma Nishtana” – what has changed. For me, one big change over the past year and a half has been building this newsletter with you.

The world we live in is a bit of a hot mess, as they say, but I still think there are early signs of good news and reason for optimism just beyond the horizon.

It may be hard to believe, but despite many headwinds, renewables are still a thing, and keep growing. There are early signs that the West just might be able to rebuild, reshore and regain mineral independence, and for all the signs that the Arctic is becoming a proto-war zone, there’s much that is still working there.

So, I choose to remind myself every Passover that there are still good news and good things just over the horizon.

It is also a great opportunity to thank each and every one of you for reading, commenting, sharing, and generally helping me keep this going. A special thanks to my greatest supporter – my wife Sarah.

I’ll be back to my usual shenanigans and trolling mood after the holiday. ‘till then, hope you all have a great one!

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• China thumbwrestles BHP for control over the iron ore market (someone will end up with a sore thumb)

• Data Center Wars: Politicians find out they have limited control over things (when did they not)

The Smaller Things

• Strait of Hormuz blues recap: coal and gas are the comeback kids (old kids on the block and other 90s references)

• France wants to use a resilience clause in wind tenders to decarbonize and reduce Chinese reliance (hey I guess you CAN eat your cake and keep it whole)

In Other News: More implications of Epic Fury on energy, Japan is hungry for minerals and so much more

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

China Thumbwresles BHP over Iron Market

What Happened? Bloomberg released a deep-dive this week on China's quiet battle with mining giant BHP over the iron ore market, in what I can only describe as a mineral version of thumbwrestling.

China imports ~70% of the world's seaborne iron ore but can't control the price. So, Beijing has been wrestling with the three major producers to change pricing, moving from a dollar-denominated price (set by producers) to a yuan-denominated one (set by China). BHP refused, and the relationship has hit a wall.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this recent bout of thumbwrestling looking like a pricing war, but it is really a Chinese attempt to bend the Iron Ore market to its will. This is yet another attempt by Beijing to tilt the global balance of powers in its favor, trying to shift contracts from dollars to yuan.

China is already trying to expand yuan popularity in oil trade (thanks to Epic Fury). If it pulls this off in iron ore, it’s another small but real step toward loosening the dollar’s dominance in global trade.

My Take: ✍️ The thumbwrestle is interesting, but the real kicker is how China goes about this: Consolidating control with one entity named China Mineral Resource Group, which apparently can just tell mills what to do.

Data Center Wars: The Road Goes on Forever

What Happened? Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. AOC finally introduced their long-awaited federal moratorium bill on new data center construction:

While this moratorium is unlikely to become the law of the federal land, Maine’s State House passed a bill banning data center builds until 2027.

At the same time, New Jersey's newly elected governor, who ran on limiting data centers and capping electricity prices, is facing yet another possible rate hike, after prices rose 20% this past year.

Meanwhile, new data centers keep getting announced globally, because the industry didn't get the memo (or threw it away).

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this string of event shows just how heated and chaotic the landscape is becoming. They also show just how limited States’ control is over prices, and despite best intentions and campaign promises, there’s not a lot that can be done in the short term to alleviate people’s economic burdens. The problem is - the short term is what matters politically.

My Take: ✍️ The chaotic flurry of weekly happenings is exactly why I called it the Data Center Wars.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Strait of Hormuz Blues: Coal & Gas are the Comeback Kids

What Happened: The war's energy ripples keep spreading:

• Europe is weighing a return to emergency fuel restrictions;

• Italy pushed its coal phase-out to 2038 and Germany is eyeing mothballed coal plants.

• The US hit record natural gas export volumes, mostly to Asia.

• And UK Energy Secretary Miliband is perhaps leaning toward approving new North Sea gas drilling off Aberdeen, reversing a ban that was central to Labour's energy platform.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because despite speculation (and some reporting) that countries are weighing moving towards renewables in the long term, right now many are focused on hydrocarbons as a source of security. Epic Fury goes to show that the path to renewables isn’t a straight line, if at all.

My Take: ✍️ I still think that in the long run, renewables are going to dominate, but you know what they say - in the long run we’re all dead.

France Wants to Boost Renewables AND Europe

What Happened: France announced 12 gigawatts of renewable energy tenders, mostly offshore wind, to reduce fossil fuel exposure. The tenders include a "Resilience" criterion designed to prioritize European components and limit Chinese ones.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is an interesting attempt for Europe to have it both ways: Decarbonize AND prevent further dependence on China. The resilience clause is trying to do something Europeans are not famous for: Leveraging demand to create excess supply of the right stuff.

My Take: ✍️ Europe gets a bad rep for being overbeaurocratic, slow and generally clueless, but it’s clear that when European countries really want to do something, they can find the way to do so.

In Other News:

📰 Iran War threatens Gulf petrostates' climate tech investments via Strait of Hormuz closure (I guess not a good time to ask them to fund my new startup)

📰 ARENA funds five projects $13m for Australia's industrial decarbonisation (ok maybe it is a good time?)

📰 U.S. Forest Service closes 57 wildfire research stations amid HQ move to Utah (ugh, you sure about that?)

📰 ReElement, Mitsubishi Materials ink strategic investment deal to scale US rare earth and battery metal recycling and refining for more secure, lower-impact critical mineral supply chains (Minerals are big in Japan)

📰 Climate investors spy big upside in India’s new grid-and-batteries-focused climate plan (thinking of starting Modi Venture Partners)

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My Unsolicited Take:

Hi everyone,

My (beautiful) wife tells me that she always thought she’d be a student of history, not a participant. And yet, these past couple of years have felt like we’ve been active participants as history is being written.

There’s an adage I keep coming back to: There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.

These past few weeks (and even months) have felt like decades, and not only thanks to the Strait of Hormuz everyone is talking about. Yes, the Strait is the main show in town, and you probably are right in following it.

However, there are other shows around the world that make decades happen, even if they are less flashy than drones and ships. They are quieter, but warrant our attention.

From Pakistan to Denmark, there are signals that our world is changing, and quite rapidly. This past week, for example, critical minerals were the subject of geopolitical realignment, while the Danish election may determine the direction of the Arctic. Even the Strait had less visible, yet important, reverberations.

This Roundup is dedicated, once again, to the less discussed shows, the shows that make decades happen.

Hope you enjoy this edition of the Roundup.

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• The Strait of Hormuz had a few less discussed impacts (like me getting cabin fever)

• Critical Minerals had another killer week (at this rate they should have a world tour)

The Smaller Things

• Thanks to Trump, Danish elections heat up while focusing on the frozen kingdom (thank you for your attention to this matter!)

• Google came up with 1GW of flexible load (maybe they can make data centers a bit less unpopular)

In Other News: Climate-resistent apples, shifting tornadoes and much, much more.

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Strait of Hormuz Blues: What You’ve Missed

What Happened? Sure, everyone’s talking about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone’s an expert on the geo-eco-political implications, and it’s clear by now its a major artery of global commodity trade:

I want to dedicate this section to three things that most people noticed less:

First, cars: The rise in oil prices thanks to the closure of the Strait led to an uptick in EV adoption, mostly in Asia. While Western countries experienced less of this trend, Asian countries like Vietnam have reported that EV sales have skyrocketed. Who benefits? China, of course, who dominates the EV market today.

Second, Pakistan: While many countries started rethinking their dependence on oil and contemplate switching to renewables to insulate themselves from similar shocks, Pakistan already managed to hedge against the impacts of the closure, thanks to its rapid adoption of solar energy, primarily of the Rooftop variety.

The scale of Pakistan’s solar adoption is supposedly enormous, but not entirely clear. Some estimates put solar to account 20% of new generation in 2024. At any rate, this adoption can serve as an example for other countries looking to insulate from such supply shocks.

Third, Solar Panels: One sector to feel the pinch is the solar industry. According to Heatmap News, Aluminum is a major victim of the closure, squeezing profit margins on solar development projects.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because these lesser discussed impacts can indicate much bigger shifts that are taking place, and indicate that China is not completely out of pocket when it comes to this war. Finally, Pakistan’s solar adoption might convince other countries to follow suite.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah, the closure of the Straits is important, can’t argue with that. Still, I think it will unfold long-term quite differently than what most people think.

Once Again, Minerals at the Heart of Geopolitics

What Happened? Another busy week for critical minerals.

While everyone was watching the Strait, President Trump met Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi and, Pearl Harbor jokes aside, announced a joint Action Plan on critical minerals to deepen cooperation on rare earths and other key inputs.

Outside the US, Canada signed an MoU with Peru on critical-minerals mining, and the EU and Australia moved forward on a free trade deal that would give Europe better access to Australian resources. In the private sector, Aclara advanced a separation pilot in Virginia, and Lynas produced the first samarium oxide outside China, a crucial step for magnet supply chains that feed platforms like the F‑35.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because even with Hormuz snarling commodity flows, the push to rebuild Western supply chains and loosen China’s grip on rare earths has not slowed at all. If anything, this week underscored how quickly “mineral independence” is moving from talking point to implementation.

My Take: ✍️ None of this is shocking. Japan is jumpy about China’s threats, Canada is busy playing Middle Power, and the private sector is doing what it always does: executing. But beneath the business-as-usual mood, the race for mineral independence is clearly accelerating, and it isn’t easing off anytime soon.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

There’s Something Frozen in the Kingdom of Denmark

What Happened: Denmark’s upcoming election will be a tough fight for Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen as she seeks a third term, and until recently her chances looked… not great.

Trump has changed that calculus,

much like he did for Mark Carney. Greenland, defense, and a shifting world order are now at the center of the campaign, earning Frederiksen points for standing up to Trump, while Greenlandic politicians use the attention to press for more from Copenhagen.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Denmark’s vote is an early harbinger of what’s coming: more contested, defense-heavy elections across Europe as security politics take over domestic agendas. It will also help shape the Arctic’s future, since a third Frederiksen term likely means a continued “not for sale” line on Greenland.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah, like I keep saying: The Greenland saga is nowhere near finished, and as Danes head to the polls they’ll be voting, among other things, to defend the current Arctic status quo.

Google Shows Up with Flexible Demand

What Happened: Google announced the integration of 1 gigawatt of “demand response” capacity into long‑term utility contracts, letting it shift AI workloads in times of need to help stabilize the grid and support cheaper, smarter electricity growth.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because just as Hyperscalers are getting much heat (and hate) for their data centers, Google is coming in the nick of time with something that might actually help prevent grid stress and might impact prices.

My Take: ✍️ Google has a long track record of backing novel energy tech and signing huge renewable deals. I’m curious to see if and to what extent they will scale this ability.

In Other News:

📰 Norwegian police shifts counter-hybrid training to Russia border amid Moscow's bill enabling armed rescues of detained citizens abroad (yeah not on my visiting destination anytime soon)

📰 South Korea creates a working group uniting government, ports, and research institutes to accelerate eco‑friendly Arctic shipping routes and technologies (can I buy one of those ships?)

📰 UK Reform Party pledges to eliminate green levies, VAT on energy bills, saving households ~£200/year amid rising oil prices (two things are certain in life: death and green taxes)

📰 US faces shifting tornado patterns with rising activity in Southeast/Northeast amid severe storms, as climate change complicates attribution amid Midwest outbreaks (I’m not going to the Midwest anytime soon either!)

📰 Denmark's rural voters backlash against sprawling solar farms ("iron fields") ahead of elections, halting projects despite 90% renewable electricity (like Frederiksen didn’t have enough on her plate…)

📰 Washington State University unveils Sunflare apple, bred for climate resilience like Cosmic Crisp but hardier against erratic weather and costs (yum!)

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My Unsolicited Take:

Hi everyone,

It is week three of Epic Fury / Roaring Lion / the Iran war. Everyone is focusing, with good reason, on the oil and gas supply shock and the impact it will have over the region, and the rest of the world.

I agree it’s a big issue, but looking ahead I’m more concerned about mineral shortages. While I’m trying to release a more methodical argument, the core idea is that wars tend to negatively impact mineral supplies and rapidly increase demand.

It’s not a bad thing, but it has major implications for geopolitics and everyone else. From raising prices for consumer electronics to giving China an extra edge, I suspect the war’s impacts will reverberate far longer and wider than we tend to think.

Elsewhere, lots of things are happening while we focus on the Iran War. Canada is going HAM in the Arctic, China continues its FYP process and Data Centers are still very unpopular in the US, threatening to be a bigger issue in the midterms than gasoline prices. And that’s just one week.

What can I say, 2026 is proving itself to be an even wackier year than 2025. How much worse can it get? Like Donald Trump likes to say: We’ll see what happens.

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Mark Carney had a big week in the Arctic (he brought a $35B coat)

• Data Centers are the defining issue of the midterms (well a lot of people hate them)

The Smaller Things

• Japan signs a deal with Lynas to secure rare earth supplies after China threats (they never learn, do they)

• China signs the Environmental Protection Code into law (but covers mountains in solar panels 🤷‍♂️)

• US DOE wants to give you money for Grid upgrades and critical minerals (do they want to support my writing?)

In Other News: India goes back to fossil fuels, Critical Metals greenlights Tanbreez, Virginia legalizes balcony solar and more.

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Mark Carney’s Big Arctic Week

What Happened? Canadian PM Mark Carney was very busy this week:

First, he announced a landmark ~C$35B plan to “defend, build, and transform the North”, which includes massive investments in military bases, infrastructure and even community projects to strengthen Canada’s position in the Arctic (and the broader Canadian North).

If that wasn’t enough, Carney traveled to Norway, to observe NATO’s Arctic military exercise, Cold Response. Later, Carney traveled to meet with leaders of the Northern countries. Carney did mostly watching and talking, but he did give a killer speech:

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Carney is on a journey to transform Canada into an Arctic superpower (and a general Middle Power). True to his Middle Powers speech in Davos last year, Carney is focused on positioning Canada as a leader in the Arctic, a topic that is becoming top of mind for many countries. Some of this is, of course, performative, since it’s not clear how much Canada is actually contributing to Cold Response1. Oh well, we do live in a Social Media world.

My Take: ✍️ I generally like Carney and I like Canada. I think it’s a net good having Canada playing an outsized role in the Arctic, as long as it does so without ignoring the native communities. We’ll see what happens.

Oh also, I made an AI-generated breakdown of the Arctic plan, just for you:

Data Centers Wars: It’s All Politics (and Prices)

What Happened? In the latest installment of your favorite TV show “The Data Center Wars”, it became pretty clear this week that DCs are now a major part of the political landscape in the US.

Heatmap News did a fantastic job at highlighting just how DCs are playing a major role in shaping US politics ahead of the midterms, pushing even Republicans to take a stand against them.

The AI industry is pushing back, of course, with a new $100M super PAC that is currently targeting Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has been very vocal against data centers.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because data centers are quickly becoming a key operative issue of the midterms, with the AI industry standing on one side and a lot of angry people on the other. You might be tempted to think it’s gas prices, but the upcoming midterms will likely focus on AI, Data Centers and, well, permitting and stuff.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah I’m staying out of this one.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Japan Gives China the Rare Earth Finger

What Happened: Japan amended its deal with Australia's Lynas Rare Earths to extend it through 2038 and include improved terms. The deal guarantees Japan 5,000 tonnes of light rare earths (NdPr) annually with a price floor of $110 per kilogram (similar to the price of MP Materials’ price floor). Additionally, Lynas will reserve 75% of its highly prized heavy rare earths specifically for the Japanese market.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this deal is a part of Japan’s series moves to break free from China’s rare earths chokepoint. Just a few months ago Japan decided to embark on an experiment to deep sea mine rare earths:

This latest deal comes shortly after China threatened to place export controls over rare earths in retaliation for PM Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan. Japan took the threats seriously, so it seems, and is working to create alternative supply chains.

My Take: ✍️ Instead of putting Japan in its so-called place, China’s threats galvanized the Takaichi government to find alternatives. It seems like China doesn’t want to learn the Oct 2025 lesson. Oh well.

China Signs Landmark Climate Legislation

What Happened: A week after Beijing received major flak for meh climate commitments in its 15th Five-Year-Plan, China adopted the Ecological and Environmental Code. The code consolidates dozens of fragmented rules into one sweeping legal framework. It officially elevates tools like carbon emissions trading and footprint management into national law.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because despite the criticism and underwhelming climate targets, China still appears to be taking environmental regulation seriously and trying to keep decarbonizing. Given China’s scale and size, this move will have visible impacts.

My Take: ✍️ Not sure how this new piece of legislation goes hand in hand with solar‑panel‑covered mountains:

US DOE Wants to Give You Money

What Happened: US Dept. of Energy announced two major funding packages this week: $1.9 billion to rapidly upgrade the U.S. power grid using advanced, higher-capacity wires, and $500 million to boost domestic processing and recycling of critical battery minerals.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the US is finally getting serious in promoting innovation and technology in its quest to modernize its infrastructure, and continues the push towards mineral independence. With respect to the Grid, the US is due for an upgrade of its aging electrical grid, and it’s about time we’ve seen a major funding opportunity.

My Take: ✍️ Mom always told me I should become a Reconductor. But noooo, I always know better 😤

In Other News:

📰 📰 India turns to polluting fuels like biomass, kerosene, and fuel oil amid war-led gas shortages (e tu, Modi?)

📰 US forecasters predict El Niño by September, threatening higher global temperatures and crop disruptions. (I guess this is the real comeback kid)

📰 Solar auctions & PPAs delivered 92 GW shielding Europe post-2022 crisis (and you thought renewables are bad…)

📰 Palisades fire victims propose resilience district for disaster hardening amid L.A. housing hurdles (big if successful)

📰 Virginia legalizes balcony solar, second after Utah (pack your bags, we’re going to VA!)

📰 Critical Metals greenlights a $30M push to fast‑track its Tanbreez heavy rare earths project in Greenland toward late‑decade production as Western allies seek non‑Chinese supply (oh hey, at least somebody is doing something about it)

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Hi everyone,

Last week I skipped my weekly roundup thanks to the breakout of Epic Fury / Roaring Lion. I did opine that it’s too early to tell how the war will unfold and therefore analysts should wait a second for things to develop:

I will be opining once again soon with my thoughts about what I think you should pay attention to, but for now I’m trying to get back at it with the weekly update on things you probably missed.

Hope you enjoy this edition of the Roundup!

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Iran War makes energy complicated (when is it not)

• China released its 15th Five-Year-Plan (can’t wait for the movie)

The Smaller Things

• Canada’s announcement-palooza at PDAC (putting money where Mark Carney’s mouth is)

• Data Center Wars: Tech CEOs sign a pledge (it’s like a pinky promise but for adults)

In Other News: Nuclear is hype except in China, Planet heating up faster than we thought and so much more.

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Iran War Makes Energy Complicated

What Happened? It’s almost impossible to recap the week without addressing the war with Iran (Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion), and the situation evolves daily (especially for those, like me, who are within missile range).

Recently, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off almost 20% of the world’s oil supply. The conflict has spiked oil and LNG prices, rattled global markets, and sent the Trump Administration scrambling for solutions.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the war and the closure of Hormuz will have both short term and more enduring, long-term impacts on the global energy sector and will have unintended consequences. One such long-term consequence might actually be a good thing for renewable energy, convincing countries to move away from “risky” oil and LNG and move to more resilient solar and wind. Not everyone agrees, though.

My Take: ✍️ I know everyone is fixated on the energy markets right now, but I think the real hidden crunch will be in the critical mineral sector. Stay tuned for a deeper dive from me on this topic later this week.

China Releases 15th Five-Year Plan

What Happened? China finally dropped its long-awaited 15th Five-Year-Plan (2026-2030) this week, and for decarbonization buffs, it’s a mixed bag. On one hand, Beijing disappointed climate advocates by weakening its carbon intensity reduction target to 17% (down from 18%) and remaining stubbornly ambiguous on coal. On the other hand, the plan expands carbon markets and mandates massive “clean-energy bases” in the desert to continue the renewable buildout.

Think Tank CREA summed it best:

China’s 15th Five-year Plan continues the pattern in the country’s climate policy established in the past five years: strong support for scaling up clean energy and emerging low-carbon industries, but continued caution when it comes to setting firm constraints on fossil fuel consumption and emission growth.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because, well, it’s China. China’s FYPs help us understand the trajectory of a superpower. They signal exactly what the global push toward decarbonization will look like over the next half-decade. Right now, it looks like Beijing will continue oscillating between its desire for global climate leadership and its domestic need for grid stability.

My Take: ✍️ I'll be watching to see how China continues to push down global prices on solar and wind, but the real space to watch is their progress on scaling nuclear energy while the rest of the world lags behind.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Canada’s Announcement-Palooza at PDAC

What Happened: Canada has hosted the 2026 Prospectors and Developers Associations Conference in Toronto. Canada’s government leveraged the occasion to announce a host of investments and programs, including:

• $1.5B (CAD) First and Last Mile Fund, designed to build infrastructure to support remote mines and processing hubs

• $2B (CAD) Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, designed to secure supplies of graphite, lithium and rare earths. It’s the Canadian response to US’s Vault (well, kind of)

• Critical Minerals Production Alliance expansion, unlocking $12.1B (CAD) in capital alongside 12 allied nations to reduce reliance on adversarial supply chains

• A Joint Declaration of Intent with Greenland designed to increase collaboration between the two countries on energy security, minerals and Arctic infrastructure

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Canada is putting its money where Mark Carney’s mouth is:

It’s no coincidence this comes just months after Carney’s landmark Davos speech. Canada is actively gearing up to be the sherpa of the Middle Powers, investing heavily in critical industries to buy itself options, security, and global influence.

My Take: ✍️ I’m with Canada on this, and happy to see its increased role in the Arctic. I’m impressed with just how much Canada is stepping in show friendship to Greenland (even though Canada is clearly taking advantage of the situation)

Data Center Wars: The Great Energy Pinky Promise

What Happened: Tech CEOs met with President Donald Trump this week to sign the Ratepayer Protection Pledge”, which is a nice way of saying Bring Your Own Energy.

The pledge includes five core commitments:

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is one of the Administration’s key efforts to address the growing political tensions caused by Data Centers (they are really unpopular) ahead of the Midterms. The strategy relies entirely on BYOE. While it sounds great in theory, it’s a double-edged sword: critics warn the "grid defection" cost shift could actually backfire, leaving individual ratepayers to foot an even higher bill.

My Take: ✍️ Two question come to mind: (1) Will companies actually comply with the pledge?; (2) If they will, will it work? Honestly, I’m not sure it matters. With the Midterms just around the corner, this is about optics, and there is zero chance we'll see structural change before November.

In Other News:

📰 Earth’s warming rate has nearly doubled since 2015, now 0.35°C/decade. This is the first statistically confirmed acceleration, pointing to a Paris breach before 2030. (oh boy it CAN get worse)

📰 Trump’s Cook Inlet offshore lease sale attracted zero bids, the first of six Congress mandated, exposing the gap between energy dominance rhetoric and market reality. (I guess no one wants to drill baby drill?)

📰 Coastal sea levels are a foot higher than assumed in 90% of climate models, with up to 3 feet more in Southeast Asia, putting 37% more land at risk. (oh hey prepare your wetsuit)

📰 Barclays warned clean energy faces stranded asset risk as capital rotates back toward fossil fuels following the Iran war shock. (well, for now at least)

📰 Bill Gates’ TerraPower received its federal construction permit for a sodium-cooled reactor in Wyoming — the first advanced nuclear permit in decades.

📰 Meanwhile, Bloomberg pushed back on nuclear renaissance hype, noting most announced projects are years behind. China is doing well, however (Nuclear is big, but mostly in China)

📰 Cameco signed a $1.9B uranium supply deal with India — the largest civil nuclear fuel contract in India’s history, as Modi doubles down on atomic energy (Modi is in a Nuclear mood)

📰 Vermont’s clean heat standard collapsed under political and economic pressure — a cautionary tale about the gap between passing climate law and making it survive. (well I got nothing funny to say, it’s just sad)

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TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• India’s Big Week (AI and Wind and Minerals, oh my!)

• California signs MoU with UK (Newsom Miliband on the 2028 ballot?!)

The Smaller Things

• Europe goes submarine hunting (where are the Beatles when you need them)

• King of Denmark visits Greenland (with a royal handwave to match!)

In Other News: Climate superfunds, IEA stops believing in climate change and plenty of other stuff

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

India’s Big Week: AI, Climate and Minerals

What Happened? This was a pretty big for Narendra Modi and the fourth largest economy in the world:

First, India held a widely covered AI Impact Week, with many of the world’s leading AI CEOs on stage alongside Modi (including a cringe moment with two of them) and culminating in the Delhi Declaration. Second, India joined Pax Silica, the US-led alliance designed to secure AI, semiconductor and critical mineral supply chains.

Finally, India partnered with the UK to create a joint offshore wind taskforce that is supposed to generate ~71GW of wind power available along India’s coasts.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because India is going for all the marbles and making major moves across three of the most important topics these days. India is trying to position itself as a world leader on par with the US and China, and hosting an AI summit is definitely one interesting way to do so. In the meantime, India is trying to make sure it does not have to choose and is playing with multiple geopolitical parties.

My Take: ✍️ Fun times ahead with India. In my 2025 yearly recap, I mentioned that I will expanding my coverage on India in 2026, and Modi is really making my job easy. Lots to expect to!

Newsom-Miliband on the 2028 Ticket?!

What Happened? California Governor Gavin Newsom signed this week a Memorandum of Understanding for climate collaboration with… UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband???

The agreement is set to create a framework to scale renewable energy and enhance technological and scientific ties between the land of eternal sunshine and California.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because… I’m actually not really sure, but it sounds like a big deal. this collaboration shows how states can take the place of the federal government in promoting climate goals, while scoring political points. Trump’s reaction probably did not surprise Newsom, who is constantly looking to troll differentiate himself from Trump and signaling that he should be on the 2028 ballot. It just might work.

My Take: ✍️ I mean… yeah, why not. Maybe Miliband will be the runner up as Newsom’s VP candidate? Stranger things happened.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Europe is Hunting for (Yellow?) Submarines

What Happened: Norway, Germany and the UK agreed to share responsibility of hunting for submarines in the High North, while relieving the US from the same duty. Several other countries, including France, have indicated they are interested in joining the initiative.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this agreement may be a signal to the US that Europe is willing to take more responsibility for its security, and for the security of the US. Just recently, an article illustrated Chinese efforts to map the northern seas, highlighting the concern the US shares over submarine movements close to its borders.

My Take: ✍️ Smart move, Europe. The submarine hunting initiative allows Europe to actually increase its defense posture in the region, show the Trump Administration it is serious about security and relieve US of security burden, all at the same time. Kudos!

I’m just wondering if the Beatles are a part of the UK contingent.

Denmark’s King Visits Greenland

What Happened: Denmark’s King, Frederik X, flew into Nuuk for his second visit to Greenland in under a year, aiming to project unity between Denmark and the autonomous territory amid renewed US pressure from President Donald Trump to acquire the island.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Greenland saga is not over, with negotiations still underway. As customary in such negotiations, there’s a constant need to send signals of your position. The King’s visit is certainly one.

My Take: ✍️ I still think a renewed flareup of the Greenland saga is only a matter of time, and it seems like Denmark and Greenland understand that, hence their need to show that they are still not interested in selling.

In Other News:

📰 Finland plans a €65m state-backed pilot mine to develop Lapland’s Sokli rare earths and phosphate deposit, seen as key to EU mineral security (Make Finland Rare Again)

📰 US forces global energy watchdog to drop climate as a core priority after Trump officials threaten to quit the agency

📰 Denmark plans more F-35 missiles and Arctic gear to boost NATO-aligned winter readiness (King of Denmark should have traveled on F35 instead)

📰 States are pushing “climate superfund” bills to make fossil fuel companies pay for climate damages despite Trump’s opposition (somebody is trying to make an impression)

📰 Climate change supercharged deadly floods in Spain’s Valencia region, worsening the 2024 storm that killed over 230 people and caused about €29 billion in damage (my condolences to the families of those killed)

📰 Private equity giants are circling battered clean-energy developers, betting on a rebound after last year’s deal slump (Can I buy in on that)

📰 Supreme Court knocks down Trump’s emergency tariffs, likely cutting some solar, battery, and clean-tech costs (let the lawsuits roll)

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Hey there folks!

As world leaders gather at the Munich Security Conference, I’m here to remind you that the world doesn’t stop to convene, so here’s the weekly roundup for you!

Before we start, last week I published some thoughts about how recent US moves to bolster critical mineral supply chains like Vault and FORGE can create a big opportunity for startups:

I want to see you prove me wrong would love to hear your feedback, and if you’re in this space - would love to hear from you!

Hope you enjoy this roundup!

Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• NATO launches Arctic Sentry Mission (sounds like we’re in X-Men or something)

• China’s Emissions Fall Flat (down but not out)

• US repeals the endangerment finding (“Objection!” is going to be the word of 2026)

The Smaller Things

• Washington State wants data centers to bring their own energy (does energy come in six packs?)

• Greenland just might build its first data center (I hear AI loves the cold)

In Other News: Europe can’t make up its mind, Russian tourist town becomes hotspot for shadow fleet, Hornsea 3 starts construction and more

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

NATO Launches Arctic Sentry

What Happened? NATO launched "Arctic Sentry," a new operation that coordinates existing military drills in the Arctic under one command led by Joint Force Command Norfolk, bringing together exercises to boost the alliance's presence in the region. Arctic Sentry is a response to rising Arctic militarization and growing Chinese influence.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because NATO is trying to get a 2 for 1 combo: Respond to growing ambitions of its rivals, Russia and China, for the Arctic; AND show Trump that NATO takes Arctic security seriously.

My Take: ✍️ Mark Rutte showed once again that he is an adept politician, but I don’t think it’s going to help for the long term. Something gives me the feeling the Greenland saga will have a Part III…

China’s Emission are Falling

What Happened? Whaddayaknow, sometimes there are good news. A new report by Carbonbrief shows that China’s emissions fell by 1% in the last quarter of 2025, extending a tend of “flat or falling” emissions from March 2024.

The decline hit every major sector except chemicals, while solar, wind, nuclear and batteries covered enough new electricity demand to let coal generation fall.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because China is one of the world’s largest emitters, and is an industrial who literally moves the needle. While Washington dismantles climate policy and fights renewables, Beijing's emissions drop (if it holds) delivers both geopolitical leverage and real climate progress.

At the same time, it’s still early to tell whether this is a momentary decline or a structural milestone.

My Take: ✍️ China is proving you can grow and decarbonize at the same time, edging closer to full Electrostate status while the US goes the other direction.

US Repeals the Endangerment Finding

What Happened? While China leads on emissions reduction, the US’s Environmental Protection Agency has repealed the Endangerment Finding of 2009, which effectively serves as the basis for the EPA’s ability to regulate carbon emissions.

This move is framed as the largest act of deregulation in US history and is set to have monumental impacts on the US, and bring about a barrage of legal challenges. Dan Wang was probably right, describing the US a nation of Lawyers (full disclosure: guilty as charged)

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because if courts uphold it, the federal government effectively gives its authority up to regulate emissions from power plants, vehicles and industry, kicking climate policy to states, markets and future administrations.

My Take: ✍️ This could backfire quite spectacularly: it might make states more willing to regulate emissions, as there’s no more federal preemption on carbon regulation. It’s not at all clear that this is the end of carbon emission regulation.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Data Center Wars: Washington joins BYO Energy Club

What Happened: Washington state introduced new legislation that mandates data centers to bring their own energy sources and not rely on the grid for power. Washington state joins other states, like Oregon and Minnesota in introducing such legislation (though WA’s bill did not pass yet). The bill comes at a time when lots of people are angry at data centers for hiking their electricity bills.

Not everyone’s sold. Critics argue that BYOE mandates could drive energy prices up, not down.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is how the data center wars are being fought: Through state bills, moratoriums and mandates trying to balance affordability with keeping the AI boom from fleeing

My Take: ✍️ is right: people hate data centers, and policymakers and lawmakers are trying to deal with the growing frustration with them. I don’t think it will help, though. These solutions are Band-Aids. What the US need is a deep, structural permitting reform that will allow adding more capacity.

The Great Data Center of Greenland

What Happened: A former Trump aide and a former Greenland official want to build a mega AI data‑center campus near Kangerlussuaq, starting at 300MW and maybe growing to 1.5GW.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Greenland has been at the center of news recently, but no one spoke of AI. Whether encouraged by the US government or a pure financial play, a data center built by a US investor might go either way: It will either make things more tense between US and Europe, or it might be cool by everyone.

My Take: ✍️ CALLED IT! The Arctic’s freezing weather is helpful for data centers (at least on paper), and I suspected that the growing need for cooling will get developers to try their luck in the Arctic. I’m not sure it’s a great idea due to the harsh conditions in the region, but sure, why not, give it a shot.

In Other News:

📰 Critical Metals confirms high-grade heavy rare earths at Tanbreez Greenland project (should I pack my bags already?)

📰 Heat pumps still beat gas furnaces in 2025 despite sales dip (Black Eyed Peas were right after all)

📰 New SEC rules made it harder for small shareholders to push companies on climate (I guess I should cancel my next campaign)

📰 Ørsted receives first foundations for world's largest offshore wind farm Hornsea 3 (let’s hope they don’t get second wind)

📰 German Chancellor Merz signals openness to revise or delay EU carbon market rules (Europe make up your mind already!)

📰 Arctic tourist resort Teriberka is becoming a hub for sanctioned Russian LNG tankers (I wonder what the truckstop looks like over there)

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial takes place with over 50 countries (but China wasn’t invited… maybe that was the point)

• India’s 2026 budget holds big promises for decarbonization and the green transition (I’m waiting for a Bollywood movie about solar panels)

The Smaller Things

• Data centers are at odds with Trump voters (we’ll see what happens)

• Saudi Arabia and Turkey demonstrate solar diplomacy (peace in the middle east… through solar panels?)

In Other News: Lots of stuff

The Talk of the Town

• Critical minerals, government equity investments 101, history of mineral stockpiles and so much more

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Critical Minerals FORGE Ahead

What Happened? Over 50 countries attended the US’s 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial, which is the mineral version of Woodstock or something. During the event, the US announced “Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement” (FORGE), which serves as a trade bloc with preferential terms that will help coordinate projects and policy.

The US government also announced project Vault, a $12B critical mineral stockpile and signed a flurry of bilateral deals, MoUs and frameworks with Mexico, EU, UK and others.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a culmination of the US’s attempt to break free from China’s stranglehold over critical minerals and rare earths, a dependence that is still growing. These moves stirred overall positive responses, though not without critique.

My Take: ✍️ Called it! I published a piece on the US strategy, where I claimed that multilateralism (or plurilateralism) is one of the Administrations key strategic levers. This week, they definitely upped the ante on this one:

India’s New Budget and Renewables

What Happened? India released its annual budget last week. The budget is complex and signals the direction which India is going to, which is rapid industrialization, focus on advanced defense and tech capabilities, and more (I thank Dr. Lauren Dagan Amos for her insights on the budget).

Interestingly, the budget includes massive investments in Carbon Capture, Nuclear Energy infrastructure, renewables, adaptation and critical minerals and rare earths.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because India’s push for rapid industrialization and growth includes pivotal moves towards decarbonization, energy independence through renewables and catch up on critical minerals. This budget meets India’s ambitions to be a global power, but one that leapfrogs fossil-fuel growth.

My Take: ✍️ We are going to hear a lot about India’s push towards decarbonization and mineral independence. I think India is going to be a big part of the 2026 geopolitical and energy map.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Data Center Wars: Trump Voters Don’t Like Them

What Happened: As Hyperscalers issue guidance this week on record AI infrastructure investments, a recent HeatmapNews article shows how unpopular data centers are among… Trump voters, primarily in rural areas. This sentiment joins general unpopularity of DCs

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the unprecedented support given by the Trump Administration to Data Center development is starting to seem like it is diametrically opposed to the preferences of the MAGA base, which can cause a rift between Republicans and their voters ahead of the Midterms Elections.

My Take: ✍️Well, what can I say. As the President likes to say: We’ll see what happens.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey Signed a Solar Deal

What Happened: Saudi Arabia agreed to invest $2B to build solar power plants in Turkey, as part of a bigger deal between the two countries to scale renewable energy to the tune of 2GW of solar, and then later additional 3GW of wind. This agreement will include 50% localization rate, which will help boost local Turkish industry.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a good example of the global push towards renewables AND is a sign of how the Middle East is reconfiguring at the geopolitical level. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are starting to collaborate more, and energy is one key channel to realignment.

My Take: ✍️ We are likely to see more of these announcements, and I will not be surprised if we see Saudi Arabia playing the role of renewable developer writ-large in the Middle East, and perhaps in other regions, as the Saudi Kingdom attempts to diversify its economy and project soft power in the region.

In Other News:

📰 Virginia Lawmakers want to un-restrict solar farms (good luck in the midterms!)

📰 China is not happy about the EU’s probe over Wind subsidies (no one ever liked a probe I guess)

📰 Speaking of China, 90% of its investment growth is attributable to renewables (yeah I have nothing witty to say here)

📰 Taiwan is likely to push timeline to meet Green Energy goals (don’t they have bigger fish to fry?)

📰 Some comments against a solar farm in Ohio are fake (I guess we trained Moltbook to be anti-solar?)

📰 EU renewable push is at risk thanks to critical mineral shortages (look surprised!)

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

🖇️ Alexandra Middleton share many insights: Published a paper on Greenland’s Rare Earths and provided a recap of the Arctic Frontiers conference. I’d love to go next year!

✍️ shared a historical perspective on stockpiles, in light of the launch of Vault.

✍️ masterfully unpacked how SMR startups work

🖇️ Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes showed how Project Vault makes critical minerals financeable by rewiring U.S. market structure.

✍️ hosted Dr. Sarah Kapnick about how climate change is speeding up, models are getting sharper, and rising risks now touch everything from daily weather to money decisions

✍️ explored how government equity investing is emerging as a pivotal new policy tool rather than a niche financial experiment

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Hi there folks!

So, I’m finally really back from vacation. I spent the last couple of weeks in India, combining work and some travel with my lovely wife.

India was amazing, mesmerizing and inspiring. I saw the depths of the transformation India is undergoing, and I plan on writing more about this topic in a new series I’m working on with a dear friend who is actually an expert on the topic.

At any rate, here are some pictures for you while you’re waiting:

While I was away, a lot of things happened: Trump threatened to take over Greenland and kind-of did a U-Turn; Davos 2026 spewed more important speeches than one can digest; China and Canada signed an EV deal; and extreme weather kept on pounding across the globe (except for India that is).

My obvious takeaway from this is never to go on vacation again. Or at least give you a warning.

But until I go again, here’s the roundup!

~ Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• The Greenland Saga looks like it’s over, but people are still nervous (even the Penguins who are in Antarctica)

• EU & India sign the mother of all deals (Trump doesn’t have a monopoly over bravado)

The Smaller Things

• Rare Earths are still a big deal (I picked the right field to pretend I understand)

• Data centers get a PR makeover, but still get pummeled in rural America (good time to suggest my vacant lot?)

In Other News: Lots of stuff

The Talk of the Town

• Clawd, China’s AI Ecosystem, CoreWeave and more!

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

The Greenland Saga Only Looks Like its Over

What Happened? After weeks of heightened tensions over Greenland between US and…Denmark (I can’t believe it’s a thing), Trump has finally announced a deal that would avoid a confrontation. Still, looks like everyone involved is still very nervous: Denmark’s king announced a visit to Greenland, while European powers are meeting with Denmark in preparation for negotiations.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because it’s not over until it’s over. Sure, there’s a path to a diplomatic resolution, but it seems like everyone is still pretty shaken by the whole ordeal, causing both European powers and the US to tread lightly.

My Take: ✍️ The Greenland story is far from over, and I suspect we will see more tensions around the island. It’s impossible to overstate how much rests on a good resolution of the topic, and we all know that Trump is anything but predictable.

EU & India Sign Mother of All Deals

What Happened? European Union and India signed the “mother of all deals”, a comprehensive agreement between the two powers that cuts the majority of tariffs on goods between the two, doubles exports by 2032 and create additional investment opportunities. Definitely a happy day for Kaja Kallas and Ursula von der Leyen.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because India and the EU are heeding Mark Carney’s call and effectively creating their own little club. But since they represent 25% of global GDP, it’s quite an effing club. This deal helps both sides reduce reliance on the US.

There’s also a decarbonization angle here: India will be subject to CBAM, but the EU will help India deal with it by investing 500M EUR to help India curb down emissions.

My Take: ✍️ I’ve written plenty about Europe’s dilemmas, and it seems like instead of relying on China more (it still kind of does), the EU is seeking a partnership with India to strengthen its economy. What a move!

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Rare Earths Continue to Rock the Boat

What Happened: The Rare Earth market is still boiling hot: First, the Trump Administration is signaling future priorities on critical minerals and Rare Earths, with a shift away from price floors (the likes given to MP Materials) and a DOE realignment toward processing, capacity building and innovation.

At the same time, the Administration invested $1.5B in USA Rare Earth, a company that controls Heavy Rare Earths deposits, which are critical for defense applications.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this might seem like small developments, but they are a part of a broader strategy employed by the US to build capacity and break free from China’s capabilities:

My Take: ✍️ While I’m not sure about moving away from price floors is a great idea (and ultimately, it is mostly motivated by lack of support from Congress), these moves address the right weaknesses in Western mineral capabilities.

I’m super excited about what is happening in this market, and it looks like the market is as well in general (not investment advice of course).

Hyperscalers Try to Rebrand Data Centers, but They Keep Dying in the US

What Happened: Data Centers evoke strong emotions on both sides of the Data Center Wars. They are also not very popular in the US. Meta is trying to change that with a $6M investment in ads and campaigns to rebrand data centers and extol their benefits to society (jobs, energy and the likes).

Meanwhile, as Heatmap News reports weekly, data centers keep on being rejected by communities across the US, including in Wisconsin and Georgia.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Data Center Wars are far from being over. They are only getting started, as both proponents and opponents of Data Centers keep trying to score points on the board.

My Take: ✍️ I still think operators and hyperscalers are going about this the wrong way. Want to build? Engage communities, be transparent, work with local officials. Buying ads is not going to cut it this time.

In Other News:

📰 10 countries have ganged up to build up to 100GW of wind power in the North Sea, while Trump walks back on Wind ban (oh hey that worked out well)

📰 EVs are having a killer week, as they outsold petrol cars in the EU for the first time, and are constantly expanding in the US under Trump, a new study shows (so… should I buy one or not?!)

📰 Michigan brought a new type of lawsuit against oil companies: Antitrust! 👉(should I coordinate a response?)

📰 South Africa experienced floods that were made worse by La Nina and Climate Change

📰 Ski Resorts are now using drones to help with plowing snow, while winter sports are trying to adapt to climate change. (New winter sports: Running away from climate change)

📰 China solar companies warn of a major demand slump (I’d love to help demand but ain’t got no money)

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ released her book, the Mining Imperative and shared her personal story. I’m a big fan of Amanda’s work and highly recommend it!

✍️ caught the Moltbot frenzy a minute before it went hot - kudos!

✍️ showed how Minister Anand’s Arctic speech framed Russia as the primary threat while skirting hard choices on NATO, NORAD, and northern nation‑building in the Arctic.

✍️ showed why CoreWeave matters less as a depreciation story and more as indispensable AI war infrastructure.

✍️ explored how China’s generative AI ecosystem is fueled by the private sector

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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Happy New Year!

This is the first roundup of 2026, and I’m full of excitement about what’s ahead. This year, hopefully, I’ll expand my coverage and bring you a broader spectrum of hidden signals, changes and developments, and more deeper‑dive, analysis‑driven essays.

Yes, the tacky humor will likely remain. No, you cannot file a complaint.

And while we’re at it, if you haven’t had a chance to catch my 2025 end-of-year recap, here’s me reminding you that you can read it here:

Some notes:

• I admit this roundup is lighter than usual due to the holidays, but I can’t wait for all the happenings of the coming year.

• The roundup will appear next week like usual, but after then I will be off for two weeks. But fear not, I will be working on a collection of essays on a few topics that are on my mind of late: India, Data Centers, US-CN relations, Rare Earths and Insurance.

Hope you enjoy this edition of the roundup, and here’s to a great 2026!

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• India added 44.5 GW in renewable capacity in 2025 (pack your bags we’re going to Delhi)

• China’s MOFCOM calls EU’s CBAM tightening unfair (trade meets kindergarten)

The Smaller Things

• Japan wants rare earths and is willing to mine the seabed (DSM is now big in Japan)

• Dan Wang’s Annual Letter (I think I have a new hero)

The Talk of the Town

• The Mineral Imperative, Startups are Media Companies, Export Controls and Stablecoins (and much more)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

India Reported Adding 44.5GW of Renewables in 2025

What Happened? India has just announced that it has added 44.5GW of renewable energy, with the majority of capacity coming from Solar, and some from Wind. This announcement comes a few months after India’s announcement that it has managed to power 50% of its total electricity from renewable sources and is linked to India’s goal of achieving 500GW in renewable capacity by 2030.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a part of India’s wider ambitions for growth and hegemony. While India has not reached China’s scale, it is quickly following suit and using renewables to power its growing economy at lower costs, gain energy security and build a domestic solar industry.

My Take: ✍️ India is the next big thing in renewable energy, and will likely help keeping the energy transition going as China reports slowdown for the first time in lord knows how long.

China’s MOFCOM Complains about EU’s CBAM

What Happened? Two weeks ago I reported on the EU’s intention to strengthen its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and close some loopholes:

Well, China is not too happy about it. China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) has called this step “unfair” and and has threatened to take ‘appropriate measures’ in response. Yeah, they are not too happy about this, I guess.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is the last thing Europe needs, a tariff war with China. China is a major EU trading partner and a superpower in the making. It’s unclear whether the EU can withstand a trade war with China. China does not shy away from weaponizing chokepoints. Again, lord knows there is no shortage of those.

My Take: ✍️ Europe’s dilemma on China has just become very real: Strengthen climate or risk angering China. We’ll have to see what is Europe’s next step, and whether Beijing will retaliate or it’s just blowing off steam.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Japan is Testing Out New Deep-Sea Mining Method

What Happened: Japan decided to test a new method for mining rare earths from the bottom of the sea. In this new pilot, a vessel will continuously lift mud rich in rare earths from 6,000 meters depth and ship it for assessment. If the pilot is successful, this will become a permanent thing.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a part of the Mineral Cold War, and Japan is trying something entirely different than most of its Western allies. Deep Sea Mining is a controversial method of extracting minerals and other resources, with significant environmental concerns. Japan does not seem deterred, effectively being one of the only countries in the world actively pursuing rare earth mud mining.

My Take: ✍️ The race is on, and Japan seems to be in a pinch to supply its own rare earths. With tensions rising high between Tokyo and Beijing, Japan understands that it must decouple from China as much as it can.

Easy Christmas? No Way

What Happened: On Christmas Eve, Russia decided it was cool to send a TU-95 strategic bomber to the Norwegian sea. The bomber had no missiles on board, but its location begs the question - why? Obviously, because Russia can.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is example #50004048 of increased Russian aggression towards the Nordic countries.

My Take: ✍️ Sure, why not. It was a slow news week anyway, so why not provoke someone.

Dan Wang’s Annual Letter

What Happened: Ok, not exactly a happening per se, but published his annual letter, and it is a masterpiece of writing and analysis. In it, Wang provides an updated take on the US-China competition and provides his take on what both sides get right and get wrong (at least, that’s how I read it). Wang covers a wide range of topics: from magical thinking and the wonders of Silicon Valley to Chinese competition.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Wang’s voice represents a growing thread of thinking on US-China relations and his thoughts represent both a growing consensus of how the US should compete, but also an accurate view on the differences between the two countries.

My Take: ✍️ I admit I have not read Breakneck just yet, but it’s definitely on my to do!

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ shared details about her forthcoming book, the Mineral Imperative. Can’t wait to read it!

✍️ taught us all about stablecoins in the best possible way: with memes!

✍️ published part II of his overview of the business of Geopolitics, helping us see how geopolitics as a trade is evolving in the AI era.

✍️ wrote a great piece about how startups act today as media companies - which got me thinking - can climate startups do the same?

✍️ claims that export controls are working and hurting China. We’ve seen them hurt the US on rare earths, so overall agree.

✍️ shared an overview of the Northern Sea Route, a topic I care deeply about

✍️ and shared Miller’s take on the importance of manufacturing. Personally, I thought it was a great take that helps spell much clarity on the topic

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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See you next week!

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Share A World Reconfigured

First thing's first - Happy Holidays to all of my friends and colleagues who are on their way to vacation! May you all have a great new year!

Now lets get to it!

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Bernie Sanders joins the Data Center Wars (I still think we need a lightsaber fight)

• Europe zig-zags on climate policy (do the Brussels dance: one step forward, half a step backwards)

The Smaller Things

• Putin builds a floating base in the Arctic (I guess an Igloo is out of the question?)

• Solar developers love sheep now (Solar & Sheep is now all the rage with Gen Alpha)

• Trump Media to merge with TAE Energy (the corporate version of YOLO)

The Talk of the Town

• Russia’s Mineral Empire, US-China Detente with Mike Froman, the role of Geopolitics in the corporate world and so much more!

Creator Shoutout

• Neural Foundry (Thoughtful, original and sometimes contrarian views on AI and Infra)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Jedi Master Sanders Joins the Data Center Wars

What Happened? Sheesh, the data center wars are not slowing down. Senator Bernie Sanders joined calls for a national moratorium on new data centers, setting off a storm of statements and quote-tweets on X. David Sacks was very vocal for once.

Meanwhile, FERC – the federal energy regulator – wants big data centers to plug directly into power plants, sidestepping regional grid operators like PJM.

Want more? the SPEED act, which will allow to skirt environmental reviews, passed through the House and went to the Senate, not without controversy over renewables.

Still not enough? Democrats are looking to investigate data centers over consumer prices. And, like every other week, more and more data centers find themselves at the crosshairs of local opposition.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because just when the US seems to need as many data centers as it can get to “beat” China (whatever that means), the backlash against them grows, and continues to escalate. There are no signs that this trend is likely to subside, and while it might be easier to build from a regulatory perspective, local opposition remains forceful and effective.

My Take: ✍️ I still think Lightsabers are the best way to sort this out, and seems like Master Bernie decided to pick up his Saber.

Europe Zigs and Zags on Climate

What Happened? Speaking of Europe, the NYT just published a scathing review of the continent’s marvelous zig‑zagging on climate policy (second only to one Mark Carney). The zig and zag continued this week: Europe moved to water down the 2035 combustion‑engine ban, while the EU simultaneously decided to strengthen the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism despite U.S. pressure.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is exactly how Europe’s grand climate dilemma plays out: One step forward, half a step backwards. I wrote about this here:

My Take: ✍️ I do not envy Brussels and the dilemmas the EU is juggling. Expect many more zigs and zags as the continent tries to navigate an increasingly hostile US, aggressive Russia, and assertive China. Europe will keep making selective concessions in the name of “competitiveness,” but this looks more like a wobble than a full‑on climate U‑turn.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Putin is Building a North Pole Base

What Happened: Man, Putin is really going all in on the Arctic. This week, the Russian President approved the Arthur Chilingarov Ice Base, a drifting ice camp established on the Arctic. It’s not the first Russian drifting ice, and Moscow has much experience with such… gimmicks?

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because whether or not this base is practical and meant for the long-haul or not, this is Moscow sending a clear message that it is an Arctic superpower. This move directly builds on Putin’s designation of 2027 as the year of Geography, a move I’ve previously covered:

My Take: ✍️ I know, I know, it sounds funny, but this move is yet another way for Moscow to strengthen its foothold over the Arctic. It might be a gimmick, but my sense is that Putin will find a way to use it to sow more instability in the region.

Solar & Sheep

What Happened: Solar and Sheep sounds like a new disturbing social phenomenon, but it’s actually a neat little climate‑era innovation. On solar farms built over farmland, overgrown grass is a real headache, so instead of spraying herbicides, developers now hire sheep to do the mowing — they graze under the panels, can slip between the hardware, and, unlike goats, don’t try to eat it.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because a huge share of solar is going onto farmland, and all that extra grass can quietly harm the project’s economics by jacking up OpEx. Using sheep instead of herbicides is a low-carbon, nature-friendly solution

My Take: ✍️ My wife’s mom, who lives on a remote farm in Australia, experienced Solar & Sheep personally, living next to an Agrovoltaic field. Yeah, It’s pretty cool.

Trump Media and Fusion Company to Merge

What Happened: Trump Media, the parent company of Truth Social, is merging with nuclear fusion developer TAE Energy in a deal that sounds less like a business strategy and more like a sci‑fi crossover episode.

Wait, what?

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is very strange, but also can be the start of a trend towards vertical integration in the AI and Media space. As largescale AI users are looking for energy sources, merging with energy providers might be a way to bring energy into the organization and avoid complex contractual arrangements.

Or, it can be a financial bet on Fusion energy, a growing field that is aggressively promoted by the Trump Administration.

My Take: ✍️ Well, to me this is the corporate version of YOLO.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ was very busy this week, with new takes on Russia’s mining empire, Gold and Fiber Optics. Way to go Amanda!

✍️ shares exciting progress on Autoimmune diseases and bumper-to-bumper charging, and brings an interesting take on startups: Mission as an API.

✍️ help a very interesting interview with none other than (I’m a bit of a fan) on US-China relations.

✍️ explores the role of Geopolitics advisory in the business world. Take his word for it - he’s a pro!

✍️ provides a guide on how to invest in Data Centers and explains the capital flows. Super interesting read!

🖇️ Jonathan Foley argues the AI carbon emission problem is less bad than you think.

🖇️ Prof. Koen Binnemans created a great illustration of how rare are different metals, including rare earths.

🐤 Craig Tindell shares a longform analysis of critical minerals

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

Neural Foundry:

Neural Foundry Substack

My personal Substack

Neural Foundry provides deep, thoughtful and from-experience takes on AI and infrastructure, written by an engineer with a great sense of writing.

I read a lot of AI newsletters and Neural Foundry is one of my favorites. This substack helps you get a deep sense of where the tech landscape is going.

Neural Foundry often provides thoughtful contrarian views (“Sam Altman Has No Idea What He is Doing”) that show original thought and a deep level of analysis (while staying accessible).

Check it out here.

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

Subscribe now

See you next week!

If you happened to receive this email from a friend, please consider subscribing. If you’re already a part of this community, I’d love it if you could recommend it to a friend.

Share A World Reconfigured

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Denmark goes HAM on the US (Oh hey Denmark, you finally noticed Trump wants Greenland)

• More trouble is brewing in the Arctic (quick, someone call Pierce Brosnan out of retirement)

• While new AI preemption EO is published, orgs call for a data center moratorium (can we have an epic lightsaber battle to decide?)

The Smaller Things

• Trove of new critical minerals discovered in Utah (but it’s not going to help a lot in unseating China)

• Romania to build a Rare Earth refinery (now, this is the way to counter China)

• China and France reaffirm commitment to climate diplomacy and multilateralism (China is now the prom chaperone)

The Talk of the Town

• Cement-pooping bacteria, US NSS on Minerals, Arctic Sea-Salt, 2025 recapped for Chinese AI and more!

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Denmark goes HAM on the US

What Happened? This week, Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) labeled the US a security risk for the first time, citing Washington’s ambitions in Greenland. The report points to the new US National Security Strategy, warning that Washington uses economic pressure and even the threat of force, including against allies.

I dug into this story before:

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the US’s ambitions to take over Greenland are a part of the broader geopolitical realignment. Danish warnings come at the same time as Greenland refuses to let Starlink enter the country, citing concerns over Musk’s ties to the Administration. And let’s not even get started with Russia and China...

My Take: ✍️ The US tried to calm things down, but the Arctic is experiencing a seismic shift. Honestly, this is starting to look like a Mexican Standoff. To quote Key and Peele’s epic skit: “Who’s double-crossing themselves while dressed as each other”.

More Troubles in the Arctic

What Happened? As if the US-Denmark rift wasn’t enough, the Arctic had another banner week for bad news. Russia’s navy chief accused NATO of stepping up spying in the region, just as Canada rolled out a new partnership to close its Arctic military communications gap. At the same time, a new report details Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics on Svalbard since 2014, and experts warn that the Ambler road approved by the Trump Administration could push Alaska’s Arctic to the brink.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the pace of events in the Arctic is picking up, from climate degradation to geopolitical tensions. It’s hard at this point to say anything with certainty, but it does seem like the Arctic is gearing for something bigger.

My Take: ✍️ Are we on the way to the Second South China Sea in the Arctic? Maybe I’ll post some thoughts about this soon!

Calls for US Data Center Moratorium

What Happened? While everyone is talking about the AI Preemption Executive Order that somewhat preempts state AI regulation1, a new kind of moratorium is gaining steam in the US, one diametrically opposed to the Trump Administration’s policy: Stop building data centers.

Over 230 organizations have sent an open letter to Congress, asking it to take action and forbid the construction of new data centers, citing environmental concerns and rising energy prices.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because these movements tends to have lives of their own. It’s easy to dismiss them as a bunch of hippies, but with NIMBY already reshaping data center buildout in the US, this moratorium call might travel further than people expect. Congress is unlikely to act, but the pressure on local politicians, developers and even Hyperscalers is real.

My Take: ✍️ Are we seeing the tides turning against Data Centers, or will the Trump Administration prevail? Only one way to decide: Lightsaber Duel.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Lots of New Minerals for the US

What Happened: Ionic Minerals Technology, a US critical minerals company, has uncovered a gargantuan deposit at its Silicon Ridge mine in Utah, containing germanium, gallium and 14 other critical materials used in advanced technologies. Some countries have all the luck, I guess.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because in the race for mineral security, every new domestic source helps. This find gives Washington more room to build out alternative supply chains and chip away at its dependence on China.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah, this is great and stuff, but the real bottleneck lies in refining, separation and product integration. The US remains heavily reliant on China, and this new deposit won’t radically change the strategic dependency unless refining capacity scales up at home or with trusted partners.

Romania Joins the Rare Earth Gang

What Happened: Speaking of breaking China’s grip on critical minerals, here’s something that will actually move the needle: Critical Metals has announced a JV with Romania’s FPCU to build a rare earth processing plant in Romania. The facility will handle up to 50% of the output from the Tanbreez mine in Greenland.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because unlike mining, refining is the real chokehold. This refinery does help ameliorate the West’s refining soft spot. This deal follows MP Materials’ JV with Maaden to build a refinery in Saudi Arabia, putting Europe on the map with respect to the ability to counter China’s stranglehold over rare earth processing.

My Take: ✍️ We’re literally witnessing the reconfiguration of rare earths in the making, one deal after another. Exciting times ahead. My bet is China is looking closely and looking for ways to strengthen its position, while more deals are likely to follow.

France and China Collaborate on Climate

What Happened: During a state visit to China, French President Macron and Chinese President Xi issued a joint statement pledging deeper cooperation on climate change and environmental challenges, and voicing renewed support for multilateral climate institutions and processes such as the IPCC.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because while the US turned away from both climate action and multilateralism, China is stepping into the void and is taking a leadership position on global affairs, with climate change being a key priority for Beijing.

My Take: ✍️ Nature abhors a vacuum, and this is no exception. Beijing has consistently used US strategic retrenchment to cast itself as the engine of the very multilateral order it once resisted, and climate diplomacy is a particularly convenient arena given China’s ability to scale climate tech and energy capacity at astonishing speed.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ provides a mineral-focused analysis of the US National Security Strategy and explores the ESG aspects of mining.

✍️ shares the news about cement-pooping bacteria and cosmic candy (I still can’t believe it’s real!)

✍️ shares his report and takeaways on Data Centers and NIMBYism

🔗 Matthew Henry shares a new study on marine cloud brightening in the Arctic, showing that sea-salt particles can help restore Arctic sea ice

✍️ explores the rise of sovereign clouds and the shifts in the investment landscape that are taking place

✍️ of ChinaTalk recaps Chinese AI’s 2025, looking at robotics, policy and US-China competition. Extra recommended to those who want to understand the big picture of AI and China

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

Subscribe now

See you next week!

If you happened to receive this email from a friend, please consider subscribing. If you’re already a part of this community, I’d love it if you could recommend it to a friend.

Share A World Reconfigured

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• US launched a new National Security Strategy (wait where’s the Arctic in this one)

• China eases rare earth element export controls (see you at the next round Beijing)

• The Arctic Heats Up, Slowly (Putin makes a lot of people nervous or something)

• Big week for Data Centers and Nuclear (lots of drama in DataCenterLand)

The Smaller Things

• Zillow deletes its climate risk function (I guess it worked too well?)

• Personal stories over the climate insurance crunch (there are people behind numbers)

The Talk of the Town

• Genesis Mission, cold-war AI, AI jagged frontiers, China’s 2025 climate scores and dispatches from Aceh

Creator Spotlight

• Sustainability by the Numbers (Hannah Richie breaks down climate debates with actual facts)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

US launches a new National Security Strategy

What Happened? While this is not a NatSec blog, I did want to highlight the new National Security Strategy (NSS) document published by the Trump Administration this week. This 20‑something‑page document defines (or redefines) America’s priorities in the region, while effectively declaring that America is “soo back”.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this document defines the US’s national security priorities and essentially tells us how the Trump Administration sees the world. If you’ve been following US moves this past year, you probably can already guess 80% of the document.

My Take: ✍️ I’ll let the geopolitics experts weigh in, but as far as my coverage is concerned, I am somewhat surprised by the scant to no attention to the Arctic and to rare earths (only one reference), given how much attention the US gives these two topics in practice.

China Eases Rare Earth Export Controls (For Now)

What Happened? Following its announced truce with the US, China has finally issued new licenses to export rare earths. These one‑year, more flexible export licenses were given to three Chinese companies. Still, it doesn’t seem like China has changed its policies in a strategic or structural way.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this looks like a tactical pause in the US‑China minerals cold war, and it’s still unclear how deep or lasting the easing will be.

My Take: ✍️ Nice move by Beijing, but I don’t see China’s move impacting the global race for mineral independence, given that the Chinese can just shut the floodgates the next time Trump gets under their skin.

The Arctic Gets Hotter, Slowly

What Happened? There’s a lot happening on the Arctic front: NATO chief Mark Rutte stopped in Reykjavik to highlight Iceland’s strategic role, NATO’s Standing Maritime Group 1 deployed to Norway’s Arctic waters, and Norway ordered more submarines for ‘turbulent times’. Oh yeah, cool as a cucumber.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Arctic is turning into a contested arena for asymmetric pressure - informational, economic and military - and Russia’s recent moves have NATO states visibly on edge.

My Take: ✍️ You’d be surprised at just how much the the Russia‑Ukraine peace talks are making Northern states nervous, many of them worried that Putin will turn to the high north next.

Big Week for Data Centers and Nuclear

What Happened? Nuclear and data centers both had a big week, full of drama and fun. Google is exploring nuclear power for an Iowa data center in Tornado Alley, and the Trump administration just committed $800M to next‑gen nuclear projects. At the same time, Georgia proposed letting data centers contract directly with clean‑energy developers, PJM’s ombudsman warned against adding more data centers to an already‑strained grid, and a new report says data centers could use about 40 percent more electricity than previously expected.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the issues of data centers, the grid and nuclear power are intertwined. Whether the US can power data centers or not will have significant consequences.

My Take: ✍️ The landscape really is chaotic: tech, utilities, regulators and nuclear are all pulling in different directions, and there’s no coherent plan yet. Right now it looks less like a strategy and more like a live‑fire experiment in how far the grid can stretch.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Zillow Deletes its Climate Risk Feature

What Happened: Home‑buying platform Zillow removed a feature it launched last year that let buyers see a property’s exposure to climate risks like floods, wind and fire. The change came after real‑estate agents and homeowners complained the scores were arbitrary and hurt sales. Instead of in‑house scores, Zillow now links out to First Street, the nonprofit that powered the original tool.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Zillow’s move shows two things at once: First, that climate risk warnings do in fact work (perhaps too well) and influence people’s decisions, and that the tide has in fact turned against climate monitoring and transportability. Neither is a great sign.

My Take: ✍️ I guess some things work a little too well. Zillow may solve a short‑term sales problem, but it’s inviting a longer‑term fight over how much climate risk buyers deserve to see upfront.

Home Insurance Sees Climate Crunch

What Happened: The NYT has gathered stories and evidence of how the rise in climate related disasters are influencing home insurance, chronicling everyday Americans’ encounters with increased premiums and reduced coverage.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because behind statistics there are people who cannot afford insurance and see their coverage declining, and the NYT has done a great job in capturing these stories.

My Take: ✍️ The Insurance market in the US is experiencing a visible and noticeable crunch that is only set to increase as the planet becomes more volatile. I suspect we will see more and more of these stories popping up, and not only during national-scale disasters.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ explores the Genesis Mission and an app-replacing agentic future

✍️ interviews about her new role at CSET, AI’s Jagged Frontier and more. It’s a wonderful interview that explores modern think-tanking and the frontiers of AI research.

✍️ recaps 2025 for China’s energy and climate. It’s a lot more complicated than you’d think and far more nuanced.

✍️ explores the connection between extraction economics to the recent mudslides in Aceh in a deeply personal and beautifully written essay.

✍️ warns of possible overinvestments in AI and brings up a Cold-War corollary

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

Sustainability by the Numbers

Sustainability by numbers

Using data and research to understand what really makes a difference

By Hannah Ritchie

authors an excellent evidence-based substack dedicated to bringing balance and nuance to the sustainability debate.

Her writing is accessible and engaging and makes delving into the data fun and easy. Reading Ritchie’s blog, it is easy to orient around hard cold facts that are often confusing and locked away in complex industry jargon.

Personally, I can’t wait to read the next post and make sure to look at her work to inform my own writing.

Check it out here!

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

Subscribe now

See you next week!

If you happened to receive this email from a friend, please consider subscribing. If you’re already a part of this community, I’d love it if you could recommend it to a friend.

Share A World Reconfigured

Hey everyone!

Thanksgiving is upon us. While I personally don’t celebrate, I wish all of my friends and colleagues in the US a happy holiday.

You probably have received countless lectures on what you should be grateful for, so I am not going to add one.

Instead, I’m just going to say that I’m thankful for (1) 2025 not being all that much worse; (2) discovering Substack and the wonderful community; (3) the many writers on this platform who work hard to bring the most interesting takes and thoughts out there.

Ok, now, let’s get back to it👇

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• US launched the Genesis Mission (aka AI Manhattan Project)

• UK issues a critical minerals strategy (but isn’t spending enough money on it)

• Finland has a new Arctic strategy (which is to high-five Canada)

• China goes big on the global stage (fusion energy and rare earths)

The Smaller Things

• NYC Comptroller suggests pensions drop BlackRock (so much for Fink’s 2020 letter)

• Gas station operators prepare for the EV future (can I play the Arcade while I’m charging?)

The Talk of the Town

• Africa’s critical mineral future, gratitude for food, the political mistakes of the climate movement and more

Creator Spotlight

• Amanda’s Substack (critical minerals for the win!)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

US Launched the Genesis Mission, an AI Manhattan Project

What Happened? The US has announced the launch of the Genesis Mission, which surprisingly does not involve going anywhere. Rather, it is a push to unite federal agencies, labs and supercomputers on one platform. It will use vast federal datasets to train large models that turbocharge science, energy and security research with AI, led by the Department of Energy.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because, as explained by Sebastian Barros, this is a US attempt to respond to China’s encompassing state ecosystem to use AI for its own progress and is an equivalent of an AI Manhattan Project.

My Take: ✍️ Super cool. There are risks, but overall this is an important development. It’s about time the US used AI at full tilt for science again – this feels like the America I grew up with, one that advances science, technology and energy.

UK Wants Critical Mineral Independence

What Happened? The UK has released this week a shiny new strategy to increase its critical mineral independence. Under the new plan, the UK will invest 50M GBP in projects that will boost UK mineral production, and will aim to produce 10% of the UK’s mineral needs (and up to 20% with recycling) by 2035.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because it’s about time the UK did something. While others rushed to counter China’s dominance, the UK was asleep; now it finally seems to be taking the challenge seriously, which is good news for Europe’s bid to decouple from China.

My Take:✍️ Really? 50M GBP?

That will barely cover… anything. The UK needs bigger, bolder, more innovative moves if it truly wants mineral independence.

Finland Has a New Arctic Strategy

What Happened? Finland has released a new Arctic Strategy amid growing regional tensions, positioning itself as an Arctic stabilizer. The document spells out its view of great‑power competition in the region, names friends and foes, and shows a clear soft spot for Canada.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️Because Finland is obviously nervous about the growing instability of what was once a pinnacle of global collaboration and cooperation. Reading through the document, it almost seems Finland realizes we’re not in Kansas anymore and is looking to position itself as an Arctic protector and to find partners to share the load.

My Take:✍️ Finland is right to be nervous and to seek new partners. Mark Carney’s Canada is stepping up in the Arctic and looks like a strong non‑Nordic partner at a time when Russian and Chinese activity means Finland will need all the help it can get to keep the region stable.

China is Swinging for the Fences on the World Stage

What Happened? This week, China rolled out two big initiatives to reshape its global role. One is the Fusion Coalition with 10 countries (including France, the UK and Germany), and the other is a Rare Earths Bloc against the US with 19 developing countries such as Zimbabwe and Myanmar.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because China isn’t resting on its laurels and is actively working to bolster its geopolitical stance through diplomacy and scientific collaborations, at times with the US’s own set of allies.

My Take: ✍️ Decoupling from China is messy and complex. I expect to see more of this fragmentation and additional attempts by China to court partners with ambitious scientific and trade collaborations.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

NYC Comptroller Puts a Bullseye on BlackRock

What Happened: Departing NYC Comptroller Brand Lander decided to comptroll recommend that pension boards should drop BlackRock, Fidelity and PanAgora for having inadequate climate policies.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a highly influential decision, which could cost the fund manager a lot of money, and signals a renewed push towards climate policies in the Trump era. This could be a first sign of a sea change in corporate governance, but could also be just one isolated case. We’ll see.

My Take: ✍️ Larry Fink isn’t so hot in the climate circles these days, is he?1 🤓

Gas Stations Prepare for the EV Consumer

What Happened: Nobody wants to linger at gas stations; it’s usually get in, get gas, get out. But as EVs spread, chains like WaWa and Sheetz are retooling their sites with cleaner bathrooms, WiFi and upgraded stores to keep drivers happy while they charge.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ With EVs projected to reach 78M by 2035, gas stations need to update the customer experience for longer charging stops. Because charging is far less profitable than gasoline, chains like WaWa and Sheetz are betting future margins will come from food, drinks and other in‑store sales.

My Take: ✍️ I don’t have an EV (yet!), but if I did, I would surely want to pass the time while I’m charging my vehicle. Personally, I wouldn’t mind an epic Arcade while charging.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ shares a special food episode of his great weekly take just for thanksgiving!

✍️ launches his consulting career - congrats Alan and good luck!

✍️ shares her take on Africa’s ability to attract investors (thanks, Mali!)

✍️ shares a great recap and analysis of the Genesis Mission (and calls it the AI Manhattan Project, which I like very much)

✍️ shares his annual Thanksgiving reflections on a variety of macro topics. Very much recommended!

🎥 Robinson Meyer appeared at about the miscalculations of the climate movement

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

Amanda’s Substack (Critical Minerals)

Amanda’s Substack

My personal Substack

By Amanda van Dyke

is a real expert on critical minerals and rare earths. Her writing offers well‑written, accessible takes on the complex world of minerals.

Amanda’s writing features rare takes on rare earths, covering the dynamics of each mineral in detail. She helps her readers to understand that rare earths are not all the same and provides illuminating facts and analysis about them.

Her coverage spans across rare earth elements (e.g., Scandium), the dynamics of key critical minerals (e.g., the structural deficits of Copper) and geopolitical movements (e.g., tarriffs) and is always incredibly accessible and easy to read.

Personally, Amanda’s substack has become my go-to source to better understand the critical minerals industry.

Check it out here!

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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See you next week!

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Hey everyone!

After a small hiatus caused by laziness air travel and a nasty cold, I am back with your favorite anti-FOMO newsletter.

I was able to share a few takes from my latest trip, though:

Anyway, let’s get back to it! 👇

TL;DR

• The Bigger Things:

  • COP30 is a mixed bag (and people are disappointed with China)

  • Rare Earths make their way to Riyadh (the Saudi Crown Jewels)

  • DOE shakes things up (climate out, fossil fuels and geothermal in)

• The Smaller Things:

  • Putin is sending his henchman to the Arctic (he really wants Svalbard I guess)

  • China, Europe set green steel standards at COP30 (this is a first for me)

  • EU is watering its ESG rules and delays deforestation law (quick, act surprised!)

• The Talk of the Town:

  • Lessons from Rare earths, more China visit, civil discourse on explosive topics

• Creator Spotlight:

  • ChinaTalk (Jordan Schneider covered China before it was cool)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

COP30 is a mixed bag

What Happened? COP30 is about to end, after two very packed weeks. I wasn’t there, but from all I’ve read, there seemed to be no shortage of action: Tug-of-war negotiations on fossil fuels phaseout, first ever discussion of rare earth elements (and how bad they are for the environment), fundraising for the Rainforest fund ($5B are in the bag!); protests and one very ironic fire. Finally, everyone seems to be disappointed in China for not being the climate leader we all wanted it to be.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ COP30 took place at a time of growing public fatigue and disinterest in the climate crisis, while the climate itself doesn’t care that we’re tired. COP30 does not seem to tilt the scales nearly enough towards climate action, though it is clear we need coordinated, global action more than ever. Well, at least China gave Panda tote bags 🐼

My Take:✍️ There are plenty of takes out there (and most of them are painting a dim picture), but I had to say something. That something is:

Rare Earths✈️Riyadh

What Happened? President Trump’s welcoming of Saudi Crown Prince MBS took place this week. Everyone seemed to focus on fighter jets, deals and the geopolitics of the whole shindig.

What people missed, in my view, is what happened halfway around the world in Riyadh: The US’s MP Materials and Saudi Ma’aden signed a joint venture to build a rare earth refinery in Saudi. Looks like everyone wins here: US diversifies its REE supply chain, MBS diversifies his economy as part of Vision 2030 and MP materials gets a share bump. Well, everyone except China, that is.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️Because Rare Earths are now the linchpin of global trade and geopolitics, and while they don’t always get their fair share of the spotlight, they are becoming increasingly a dominant feature of the current geostrategic landscape.

My Take:✍️ This is an important milestone, with the US, through MP Materials, starting to make serious moves to break China’s dominance over processing and refining, and replacing it with a distributed network of refining capabilities centered around its allies globally.

Big shakeups in US DOE: Climate out, everything else in

What Happened? Everyone is talking about the sweeping overhaul of US environmental protections, overturned this week by the Trump Administration and Congress.

However, the reorganization of the US Dept. of Energy might be equally important. Focusing on fossil fuels and Nuclear, the recent shakeup disbanded Biden-era offices dedicated to clean energy (like Demonstrations and Renewable Energy), renamed the LPO to Office of Energy Dominance Financing (okay…), and created new offices related to Hydrocarbons and critical minerals. Heatmap News published an excellent recap and takeaways!

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this shakeup is the latest signal by the Trump Administration that it cares mostly about Fossil Fuels, Nuclear, Geothermal and critical minerals. This is a clear indication of where the financing and regulating power of the department will turn in months and years to come.

My Take: ✍️ The critical minerals office is a pleasant surprise

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Putin sent his henchman to the Arctic

What Happened: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev spent some time this week in Svalbard, deep in the Arctic Circle. He visited Arktikugol, the firm representing Russia in Svalbard. Trutnev said “Today, amid the rising international tensions, it is of fundamental importance to us that none of the rights that Russia has acquired […] should be lost”.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Putin is amping up his rhetoric over Svalbard and the Arctic Circle, slow but steady. Trutnev’s words should be taken in the context of the growing military buildup of the Northern Fleet and attempts to present Russia as a victim of Western aggression in the Arctic. Oh boy.

My Take: ✍️ I dunno, but every time Putin talks about historical rights I get the jitters and a weird feeling that he’s going to invade.

Europe and China set green steel standards

What Happened: One of the good things coming out of COP30 has to do with Green Steel. In a landmark agreement, ResponsibleSteel, China’s Iron and Steel Association and Europe’s Low Emission Steel Standard have reached an agreement to allow interoperable standards.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Steel is responsible for 7-9% of global emissions, so any acceleration of its decarbonized variant will pack a big punch. This new agreement will help solve a lot of headaches and will ease green steel trade. It also sets the stage for further EU-China collaboration on the topic.

My Take: ✍️ I love green steel, and like everything new, we need to have the mechanisms in place to accelerate its adoption. Overall, I find it to be one of the more helpful announcements coming out of COP. I know, I’m a bit of a nerd.

Europe needs to make up its mind on climate

What Happened: This week, while EU leaders are at COP, member states are pushing to delay the Deforestation Law (EUDR) by one year and the Commission has unveiled a very watered down version of the ESG disclosure rules for asset managers.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because these two announcements put the EU at an awkward position, as its leaders try to negotiate stronger fossil fuel phaseout deal at COP30. Readers of this newsletter will not be surprised to see Europe’s confused and complex climate policy, which can only be described as the climate version of the Cha-Cha

My Take: ✍️ This isn’t the last of the European climate Cha-Cha that we’ll get to see. The EU faces strong dilemmas that are hard to square and pressures from all directions, so we can expect more confusing policy that is trying to keep everyone happy, but manages to please no one.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ continues his foray into Data Centers and tells the story of silicon time.

✍️ of gives a very helpful and illuminating overview of the moments of capital this past month in the climate tech space

✍️ continues to demystify rare earth elements critical minerals. This week: Tellurium and Titanium

🎥 interviewed Emerlad AI’s CEO on the two paths Data Centers can take: the Villain or Hero path

🎥 and hashed it out on the Doom Debates podcast. I listened to the entire thing and have a lot of takeaways. Mostly I salute🫡 both for the civil and thoughtful debate! (I might share my thoughts about this one later)

🖇️ CTVC published the full recap their CEO’s visit to China. Excellent and important read!

🐣 and engaged in a very public and very civil debate over Data Center water usage. Regardless of the tweetstorm, impact of DCs on communities is a topic worth following! (https://x.com/AndyMasley)

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

ChinaTalk

ChinaTalk

Deep coverage of technology, China, and US policy. We feature original analysis alongside interviews with leading thinkers and policymakers.

By Jordan Schneider

, and team were China experts before it was cool. I first started to listen to while I was a wee little Chief of Staff, trying to get a sense of the growing tensions between China and US and how it will impact the global business landscape and became a fan ever since.

Jordan and his team do a fantastic job in decoding China and unpacking the complex relationship it has with the US and the rest of the world, while bringing a nuanced view of the topic. Their reporting spans across geopolitics, tech, culture and more

ChinaTalk is full of great interviews with both prominent figures and professionals with a smaller media profile. If you’re new to their stuff, I recommend the Jake Sullivan interview, which I found thought provoking in particular.

Check it out here!

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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See you next week!

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Share A World Reconfigured

Last week, I spent some time in Las Vegas, Nevada.

No, I not there for the casinos.

I attended a conference for work and came back with a terrible cold a realization about Nevada’s role in the new cold war of critical (and rare) minerals.1

Airplane Mode

The plane took off.

As Las Vegas faded into the horizon, canyons, creeks and valleys started taking over from the colossal replicas of real-world monuments that were lumped together into a megapolis.

It only took 10-15 minutes for us to start flying over deep time and the state’s geological endowments. Suddenly, I was no longer looking at an urban jungle, but at a real desert.

Since I spend an increasing amount of time thinking about rare earths and critical minerals, I couldn’t help but wonder if Nevada has more to offer to the future of the US than just Casinos.

States, like countries, compete for power, funding and talent. They compete for brand and allure. Different states have different assets to offer, some tangible and some more ephemeral.

When it comes to America’s ability to secure its future, California brings Silicon Valley; Virginia brings Data Centers; New York brings the Knicks NYC; and the list goes on.

And Nevada? Critical minerals.

In Vogue

Critical Minerals are in vogue these days.

Thanks to China (and the gross negligence of much of the Western world), they were all over the news these past few months.

The term “Critical Minerals” is often thrown around in a cavalier fashion, but there’s a method to the madness: Clear definition + defined list.2

Critical minerals are defined by Executive Order 13817 as:

…a mineral identified by the Secretary of the Interior pursuant to subsection (b) of this section to be (i) a non-fuel mineral or mineral material essential to the economic and national security of the United States, (ii) the supply chain of which is vulnerable to disruption, and (iii) that serves an essential function in the manufacturing of a product, the absence of which would have significant consequences for our economy or our national security.

Put simply, critical minerals are a bunch of minerals that are very important to national security or the economy.

If we think about it, it’s not that weird. Some minerals are critical in making the cars we drive, the planes we fly in, the laptops and phones we use. They are also critical in the things that allow our countries to operate and defend themselves.

Therefore it’s not a good idea to let foreign countries control our ability to procure them.

Critical minerals are listed by the US Geological Survey (USGS) every few years. As of 2025, the US has designated 60 minerals as critical, adding Copper just recently.

The list includes some well-known minerals like Zinc and Tin, but also some obscure ones like Iridium and Tantalum (I honestly have no idea what this last one is 🤷‍♂️).

Over the past few decades, as we are now acutely aware, China developed mastery over mining, refining and processing of critical minerals.

To get a sense of the US’s reliance on critical minerals, here’s a fun chart:

Given China’s recent moves regarding export controls, this reality is making a lot of people nervous.3 It has led the US to rethink its strategy, which for the past 20+ years has meant mostly offshoring capabilities and closing down facilities.

Born in the USA

The crazy thing about the past 20+ years of US shutting down mines and facilities is that the US has way too many critical minerals.

Ok, fine, there are plenty of good reasons for why this happened, other than costs (environmental reasons is one example), but in hindsight, it was probably not a very smart move.

Ok, I’m done judging.

The US has plenty of critical minerals, but they are not evenly distributed:

Looking at this map, three things come up:

1. I was flying over a lot of very expensive rocks!

2. Deposits are not evenly distributed. Majority of deposits are centered around the American West, both in quantity and diversity

3. Distributed deposits mean that as the US is attempting to gain mineral independence, different states will have a different role in securing that future

Nevada plays a unique and interesting role in that future.

What Happens in Nevada…

When it comes to securing the US’s future as minerally independent,4 the state of Nevada has more to offer than just casinos and the occasional (although mesmerizing) show at the Sphere.

In fact, Nevada might have more influence over our lives than we realize.

Let’s take a closer look:

Mineralapalooza!

Nevada is home to at least 33 out of the 60 listed critical minerals.

While not all are of sufficient quantity and quality to mine, Nevada is proud to have so many critical minerals found within its borders. Still, it is home to three primary minerals: Lithium, Antimony and Copper.

Lithium

Nevada is the US’ leading lithium producer, responsible for over 80% of the US’s production, with its mineral-rich deserts serving as the heart of the nation’s primary supplier of a mineral critical for EVs and batteries. Nevada is the only US state with a “Lithium Loop”, with capabilities across extraction, processing, battery manufacturing, and recycling.

There are significant projects underway to expand the current capacity of 7,500 tonnes to roughly 160,000 tonnes annually (for example, Thacker Pass and Rhyolite Ridge)

Antimony

Nevada is the US’s leading source of new antimony production potential, used in batteries, semiconductors, and defense applications. Nevada hosts some of the highest-grade antimony projects in North America, centered on sites like Limousine Butte and Last Chance. These projects are advancing to commercial scale, aiming to restore domestic supply chains and reduce US reliance on China.

Copper

Nevada is a top US copper producer, supplying over 160 million pounds of copper annually from its mineral-rich mines (roughly 6% of total US output). Copper is a vital building block for electrical infrastructure, renewable energy projects, and manufacturing across the country.

Aside from these three, Nevada is home to an assortment of other minerals, like Tungsten, Nickel and perhaps even some Cobalt.

Aaaand… Action!

Ok great. Nevada has plenty of important minerals and lots of mining companies. But what is happening in practice?

Turns out - quite a lot.

• Nevada created the “Lithium Loop” initiative, linking state government, mining companies, gigafactories, and recycling startups to anchor a full lithium-to-battery supply chain in one jurisdiction.

• Hawthorne Army Depot established as the US Strategic Minerals Reserve facility for storage and management (August 2025)

• DOE approved $2.26B loan for Thacker Pass lithium project construction and expansion (September 2025)

• Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project received federal permit and nearly $1B financing (October 2025)

• The Pentagon awarded $6.2M to Pilot Mountain tungsten project for defense-grade production (July 2025)

That’s quite a laundry list of things that took place just this year. To me, this means that Nevada is well aware of the role it can play in the American mineral war for independence and is making moves that will bring capacity and capability.

It will be interesting to see if Nevada keeps up this pace and will continue to invest in its mining sector, which can well be a way to secure more internal power in the US and attract more federal funding at a time where every mine counts.

I guess I will have to explore that next time I’m in town (as you can probably understand by now, I’m not a big fan of casinos🤷‍♂️).

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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See you this weekend!

👋 Welcome to A World Reconfigured - your guide to a world changed by climate, geopolitics and technology. I write about how climate change is creating a new world with new rules, and often cover topics like the ❄️Arctic, 🤷‍♂️Rare Earths and 💻Data Centers.

If you happened to receive this email from a friend, please consider subscribing. If you’re already a part of this community, I’d love it if you could recommend to a friend.

TL;DR

• The Bigger Things:

  • Data Centers are on the Ballot (Too much attention for an industry that tries to stay hidden)

  • World leaders gather in the Amazon to talk climate plans (COP30 a feel?)

  • US & Kazakhstan are now best friends (they have more than just Borat, you know)

• The Smaller Things:

  • EU 2040 emissions rules were finally approved (the meh version)

  • Keir Starmer swears he’s good for the climate targets he promised (but UK policy is still confusing)

  • Worried about Greenland? It’s Alaska you should be worried about (China > Russia)

• The Talk of the Town:

  • Lessons from China visit, data centers, Virginia elections and more!

• Creator Spotlight:

  • Distilled (Michael Thomas really knows where all the data centers are)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Data Centers are on the Ballot

What Happened? Data Centers were front and center in many of the political races that took place in the US this week. While most attention this week was given to one Zohran K. Mamdani, critical races in Virginia and Georgia (for Governorship, House and Public Service Commission) were won largely thanks to a focus on data centers and rising consumer prices.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this spells trouble for the US’s position in the AI race. The backlash is bipartisan and widespread, and has now gobbled-up US politics. This also puts an uncomfortable spotlight on an industry that tries to stay hidden.

My Take:✍️ I’d pay attention to Virginia, where two races were decided thanks to data center backlash. Virginia is the DC capital of the world, with 13% of global data center capacity. What starts in Virginia may be a harbinger for the rest of the US.

World leaders gather in the Amazon to talk climate plans

What Happened? It’s that time of the year again… COP. This year, world leaders descended on the Amazon rainforest to attend COP30 at Belem. As expected, COP30 drew many (justified) laments over the state of the climate, announcements and even a heartfelt letter by President Lula. He slept in a boat, by the way (am I the only one who sees the irony here? Not by a long shot)

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ I’m actually not sure, to be honest. COPs are a climate tradition, but everyone seems to be unhappy with them. Still, some important announcements have already been made, including the brand new Baku to Belem $1.3T investment framework and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility designed to support rainforest conservation worldwide.

My Take:✍️ This is classic ‘damned if you do, damned if you don’t.’ COPs are performative, but at least they remind leaders that nothing is fine.

US and Kazakhstan Are Best Friends Now

What Happened? Yak Shi Mash!

Kazakhstan has signed a memorandum of understanding with the US, signaling a new era in the relationships between the two countries. While the White House touted a shopping list made by the Kazakhs and accession to the Abraham Accords, Rare Earth Elements were probably the real reason for this agreement. This MoU allows the US to access nearly 800,000 tonnes of REEs and a bunch load of Tungsten.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is the latest installment in the Rare Earth Cold War. The US is rushing to secure non-Chinese deposits in attempt to release Chinese chokehold on REEs and other critical minerals. The Trump Administration is doing so the best way it knows how: trade agreements.

My Take: ✍️ This cold war is just getting started. We’re likely to see more agreements like this. The US is forming a new world order, one where mines are destinations, minerals are currency and trade agreements are the train tracks. Or something like that.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

EU Approved A Meh Version of its 2040 Rules

What Happened: The EU has FINALLY approved its 2040 emissions reduction rules. The Only problem is: it’s the meh version.

After much deliberation, the EU’s Commission approved a plan to reduce 90% of 1990 emissions by 2040, while agreeing to delay some moves, like the EU carbon market, to appease skeptical countries.

Still, the word on the street is that this is a “meh” version that shows this last ditch effort to agree and avoid embarrassment at COP30:

The deal meant the EU will not go empty-handed to COP30, where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet other world leaders on November 6.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a prime example of the bind Europe is in when it comes to climate (and just about anything else). This dynamic will continue to be the norm, just when Europe needs to be brave on a number of topics.

My Take: ✍️ Well… 👇

Keir Starmer Swears He’s Good for It

What Happened: Two weeks ago, I wrote about how the UK has not decided what role it wants to play in the energy transition. Now, ahead of COP30, UK PM Starmer swears he’s good for his promises, stating that “Britain isn’t waiting to act – we’re leading the way, as we promised.”

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because those are big words from someone whose advisors wanted to avoid COP30 altogether and refrained from supporting Brazil’s landmark Forestation Facility (see above). UK’s policy remains confusing (though personally I’m rooting for Starmer on this one).

My Take: ✍️ I mean, I get it. It’s not easy. Starmer faces a choice: break his promises or hand Reform UK more ammunition. But that’s why the job is hard. We should expect leaders to navigate rising costs and decarbonization.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ reported on the latest US REE deal, with a Govt-ReElements partnership worth $1.4B that aims to create a mine-to-magnet supply chain.

✍️ wrote about the latest Virginia elections and what it means for data centers

✍️ shared what space data centers look like, and they are cool!

🖇️ CTVC’s Kim Zhou chronicled her visit to China and the lessons learned from the industrial juggernaut of the 21st Century

🐣 Zeke Hausfather shared a great take about Bill Gates’s climate memo.

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

Cleanview

Cleanview Newsletter

Data-driven insights about clean energy

By Michael Thomas

omas really knows his data centers. He and his team chronicle the ins and outs of the AI boom by finding most of the planned data centers, bringing readers troves of information.

But that’s not all. Cleanview is a smart, well-written substack about the energy transition and about clean energy, and provides readers with a great, evidence-based stories.

Check it out here!

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

Subscribe now

See you next week!

Happy Saturday!

Welcome to another edition of the Time Machine, the roundup of weekly stories too important to miss.

This edition will have less story-by-story recap, and more of a theme-driven roundup. Hope you like it! (you can always reach out to complain 🤷‍♂️)

TL;DR

• The Bigger Things:

  • Trump-Xi deal brings some relief to rare earths (everyone is happy but western REE companies)

  • Data centers are still at everyone’s crosshairs (some love them, some not so much)

  • Bill Gates doesn’t think climate is cool anymore (guess I shouldn’t apply to be his Climate lead?)

• The Smaller Things:

  • Putin declares 2027 as year of geography (whatever that may be, it has something to do with the Arctic)

  • Droughts put financial stress on cities (I mean, how did we not price that risk in?)

• [New Segment] The Talk of the Town:

  • Response to Bill Gates, rare earths, how oil and gas built wind power and more stuff I read online this week

• Creator Spotlight:

  • Natural Connection (Kate Howlett wants to make sure you have it with nature)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Trump-Xi Deal Brings Relief to Rare Earths

What Happened? China paused some of the export controls on rare earth elements (REEs) that everyone was raving about a few weeks ago (myself included), as part of the Trump-Xi deal, for a period of 1 year. Everyone seemed happy, except for US REE companies, who are worried about losing their latest market gains.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is what the US-China relationship looks like today - on again off again 🤦

Joking aside, this agreement did not solve anything structural or change the balance of powers, just bought us more time (which is also good I guess).

My Take:✍️ If I was the CEO of a US REE company, I wouldn’t panic just yet. First, not all restrictions were lifted. Second, it’s unlikely Western countries will trust China enough not to invest in capacity. I think it’s likely we will see investments in REEs continue.

Data Centers are At Everyone’s Crosshairs

What Happened? Data Centers still dominate the news, especially around energy prices: (1) DOE Secretary asked FERC to speed up rules for data centers, and (2) a group of US Senators push for speedup in data center approvals, if they can bring their own energy. But, (3) Maryland Senator Katie Fry Hester fights to prevent data center costs from hitting consumers.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this battle over data center approvals can have real impact on the US’s ability to win the AI race, and will likely help determine just how many will be built and where. This has implications for many states, and for the US writ large.

My Take:✍️ I think the jury is still out, and the battle will be won by bottom-up pressure. NIMBY is not going away anytime soon, but protecting consumers from energy prices will probably help deploy more data centers.

Bill Gates doesn’t think the climate is cool anymore

What Happened? In a letter penned out by everybody’s favorite billionaire (and mine too, to be honest), Bill Gates argues that maybe climate change is not so bad. Instead, he thinks, we should focus on the here-and-now and people’s welfare.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ I really liked Bill Gates and have appreciation to his work over the years. In my view, the biggest problem with the letter is the tone, not the actual words. The landscape is already complex and climate activism already took quite a backseat in the past year. Gates’s letter sounds like the last nail in the coffin.

My Take: ✍️ Personally, I don’t think his letter is a swan song to his climate work, but I cannot deny it’s a disappointment.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Putin declares 2027 as Year of Geography

What Happened: Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that 2027 will be the “Year of Geography”. What this means is that Russia will be issuing new maps that include Ukrainian territories and… you guessed it - the Arctic.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because if you thought Putin will leave the Arctic alone and we’ll all be able to go home quietly - think again. Looks like the Russian President is set on cranking up the heat in the Arctic. I covered the topic at length here:

My Take: ✍️ The Arctic is likely going to be the top of mind in 2027 once Putin decides to crank up the heat even more. You’re read it here first!

No Water, No Money

What Happened: While Bill Gates tells us that worrying about climate change is meh, a new piece by Grist documents just how ongoing droughts bring financial risk (and even ruin) to American cities. Droughts are considered more financially damaging than floods and fires, as they last longer and in larger areas. The problem: Droughts are not priced into most municipal bonds, exposing investors (and cities) to risk.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because thanks to climate change, droughts become harsher and more frequent, they put municipalities on edge make them unable to service their debt. This can lead to bankruptcies and financial disaster.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah, this is bad. If we’re not trying to prevent droughts (can we?), we should at least price them into the bonds so municipalities do not experience ruin.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here’s a new segment to share some of the good stuff:

🖇️ Sebastian Manhart shared an excellent take on Gates’s letter

🖇️ Commonweal Ventures wrote an excellent piece on Rare Earths and areas for innovation (I will too soon enough!)

🖇️Aldona Kapacinskaite published a new paper, showing how wind power was built by oil and gas firms in the wake of the 2014 oil crash.

✍️ wrote about the $60M bet on an ambitious solar geoengineering project and its implications to security (and there’s plenty!)

🐣 Jesse Jenkins co-founded a company and wants you to join!

🎙️Shayle Kann talks about DOE’s request to transform interconnections for data centers

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

Natural Connection

Natural Connection

A hopeful newsletter about fixing our relationship with nature

By Kate Howlett

has a knack for making nature feel completely natural. Her work speaks from the heart, to our hearts. With a PhD on the relationship kids have with nature, she brings expertise, experience and excellent storytelling to help fix our relationship with mother earth. Growing up in a concrete jungle, I am amazed by how much Kate’s work is helpful in making even people like myself get it.

There are many publications out there help us know more, but Kate’s work helps us feel more. Her work features well thought-out arguments, powerful stories and beautiful scenery images. Reading Natural Connection often feels like going on an adventure.

I myself often find myself reading her Substack for inspiration when I find it lacking.

Check it out here!

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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See you next week!

Happy Sunday!

Welcome to another edition of the Time Machine, the roundup of weekly stories too important to miss.

This edition will have less story-by-story recap, and more of a theme-driven roundup. Hope you like it! (you can always reach out to complain 🤷‍♂️)

In Short

Big: EU & Emissions, UK climate indecision, rare earth deals galore

Small: Disaster business, NATO goes green (?), Icelandic mosquitos

Cool: Gemini Climate Warrior

Spotlight: Critical Minerals Journal

TL;DR

• The Bigger Things:

  • Europe advances its 2040 emissions plan (but doesn’t actually solve anything)

  • The UK can’t seem to make up its mind on climate (is it fish vs. chips?)

  • Rare Earths are still on fire (get them while they’re hot!)

• The Smaller Things:

  • The Disaster-Industrial-Complex is outperforming the S&P500 (I didn’t know it was a thing)

  • NATO faces call to go green by a bunch of soft… ex-generals? (I dare you to send that letter to Trump)

  • Rise of the Icelandic Mosquito (seriously is nowhere safe?)

• The Cooler Things:

  • Google’s Climate Warrior Chatbot

• Creator Spotlight:

  • Critical Minerals Journal (the best place to get your minerals fix!)

In Case You Missed It…

Here’s what I thought about the events of last week, if you missed it:

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Europe advances its 2040 emissions plan

What Happened? Remember the EU’s ambitious emissions target plan? Yeah, that one:

This week, EU leaders reached an agreement to move forward with the plan (dubbed a “truce”), but opted to leave the technical details to a November ministerial meeting, which won’t be any easier.

The reason is that EU leaders did not actually manage to solve any outstanding issue. The EU added a ‘revision clause’ allowing future weakening of the measure in case the macro environment worsens.

At the same time, US and Qatar sent a letter to Europe, “suggesting” that the continent water down its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive. Europe doesn’t seem to cave in.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the EU is at a crossroads, facing both internal and external pressures to wind down climate action. It won’t be easy for the continent with member states pushing in different directions, challenging financial markets and one Donald Trump.

Of course, Europe did what it does best: kicked the can down the road..

The UK Can’t Seem to Make Up Its Mind on Climate

What Happened? The UK’s climate landscape seems like a hot, contradictory mess these days.

Keir Starmer’s ambitious 2030 clean energy target (Plan for Change) appears to be quietly abandoned amid soaring energy bills and the surge of the Reform UK party.

Meanwhile, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband promises 400,000 new clean energy jobs by 2030, and the Green Party is reporting record growth under Zach Polanski’s leadership.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the UK is not alone in this confusing landscape. Many countries, serve as a battleground for pro- and anti-climate movements, policies and actions. This is a result of growing global challenges that include rising prices, record energy consumption, and rising geopolitical tensions.

The UK has traditionally been an important signal for other countries and its internal battles will likely influence other European countries.

Rare Earth Elements are Still Hot

What Happened? Last week, following China’s export controls, nobody could get enough of Rare Earth Elements (REEs). Suddenly, everyone’s an expert. Yes that includes me as well.

If you thought the excitement would pass, think again. REEs are still very hot, and countries around the world are using China’s self-inflicted wound to drive up their REE capacity in response.

Just this week, we saw the US sign a landmark framework with Australia that supports a pipeline of projects worth $8.5B to counter China’s dominance, sending Australian firms skyrocketing (such as Lynas and Arafura). In the UK, Pesana moved to create a Mine-to-Magnet supply chain in the US, and US firm Aclara moved to build a REE separation plant in Louisiana.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because despite some skepticism, the REE train is still very much on the move. REEs are heavily consequential for the world’s economy, and even if the US and China reach a deal, I personally think that there is little reason to believe Western countries, alarmed by China’s moves, will let this one go. Whether they succeed is a totally different matter.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

The Disaster-Industrial-Complex is outperforming the S&P500

What Happened: Disaster recovery is big business, I guess. Weather-related disasters are becoming more frequent and violent, causing unprecedented damages. Just in the first half of 2025, disasters cost the US more than $100B.

As costs skyrocket, disaster recovery companies are seeing their businesses boom, with companies specializing in the cleanup, repair and recovery are outperforming the S&P500. These companies include engineering firms, hardware stores and even insurance companies.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is an overlooked, yet growing business that is worth paying attention to, especially as FEMA is attempting to shift responsibility to the local level. This is the Reconfiguration in all of its glory: A new world that is forming in front of us that is made of an odd and macabre marriage between disaster and recovery, creating a perverse (yet important) market.

NATO faces calls to go green by a bunch of soft… ex-generals?

What Happened: Before calling climate advocates soft, remember: sometimes, they’re ex-generals. A bunch of them sent a letter to NATO, asking the organization to go green and switch to renewables. Why? to reduce reliance on Russia, of course. The generals argue that renewables are harder to destroy (seen in Ukraine) and cite the recent target raise as an opportunity to do so.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because we see once again that climate and security are inextricably linked, and even top NATO generals can see it. Given the US Administration’s stance towards climate change, it won’t be easy for NATO to heed the call.

We are likely to see the organization continue to debate the two ends of the spectrum, which will likely lead to confusing policy that will continue to be tested by a more extreme climate. I wrote about it a few months ago:

Still, debates notwithstanding, climate change doesn’t care if we believe in it, and it also doesn’t care about if we have other worries as well, like Russia.

Rise of the Icelandic Mosquito

What Happened: Today, in our weekly edition of “You’ve gotta be kidding me”, we visit Iceland, where mosquitos were discovered recently. If you’re wondering why is that surprising, it is because Iceland doesn’t have mosquitos. Not. A. Single. One.

Thanks to its extreme cold, Iceland was one of the only two places in the world without mosquitos. Until recently, where a few of them were discovered on the island. Researchers are not sure if climate change is the culprit, even though Iceland is suffering much higher temperatures in recent years.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️Because there goes my Mosquito getaway. While it’s not sure that climate change is to blame this time, if temperatures keep rising, they will make Iceland a ripe destination for the buzzing creatures. This is a reminder of the world we’re creating - one with nowhere to hide from Mosquitos. Oh well, I better bring my spray next time I visit.🦟

The Cooler Things

Honestly it’s just too cool to miss out on:

Google Earth’s New Chatbot is a Climate Warrior

Google is always pushing the envelope on cool things. You’re probably thinking NanoBanana and Genie, but I’m actually talking about its new climate fighting chatbot.

Google has launched an upgraded version of Earth AI, integrating its Gemini chatbot to help users explore and understand climate risks in their region.

With the new geospatial AI features, users can ask natural language questions, like “find algae blooms” or “show flood risks” and access satellite data, environmental trends, and predictive insights. The new chatbot combines weather, population, and imagery datasets to not only map existing changes, but predict future disasters and highlight which communities are most vulnerable.

But… it costs money, and not a little. If you have extra $75 to chat with Google on climate, well, then you’re a better person than me 🫡

Still, this is a helpful and cool move by Google, so well done!

The Reconfiguration doesn’t have to be depressing. It can be very cool!

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

Critical Minerals Journal

Critical Minerals Journal

The playbook for mastering Critical Minerals. Curated research and insights trusted by policymakers, investors, analysts, and educators.

CMJ was on top of critical minerals and rare earths before it was cool!

This publication is my go-to source to better understand what’s happening with the minerals and materials that underpin our global economy. Whether you’re looking for the headlines and the TL;DR, or looking to dive deeper into the dynamics of the industry, CMJ is a great source to follow.

I personally read this publication to inform my own (emerging) writing on the topic.

Check it out here!

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See you next week!

Climate change is reshaping power, money and markets. I help you stay on top of it!

Hey there👋

In this edition:

• Why You Should Pay Attention to Rare Earth Elements (REEs)

• How China created a new geopolitical moment with REEs

• Are REEs the new DefenseTech?

You should read this if you’re…

• Bored of the AI bubble talk and looking for new fun

• Looking to learn more about the new center of the global economy

Before we continue - if you like my writing and memes, please subscribe to show me the love and force me to write more:

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The emerging (yet uncertain) AI bubble keeps everyone busy. Yet, there’s a storm brewing on the horizon that you’re not paying attention to:

Rare Earth Elements (REEs).

If you use an iPhone, travel on airplanes or drive an EV, this is one drama you do not want to miss out on.

What’cha Talkin’ About, Willis?

It feels like AI is all everyone wants to talk about these days:

• Is AGI coming (better be yesterday!)

• Is there a bubble forming? (god I hope not!)

• If yes, when will it explode (and geez I hope I don’t lose all of my money)

And yet, in plain sight, a new storm is brewing, and it revolves around very important, yet little-known, components of our global economy.

I’m talking about REEs, of course.

What are REEs anyway?

REEs refer to a group of 17 metallic elements in the periodic table that have very odd names.

What is unique about this group of elements is that they are often used to provide super powers to other materials. They are used in anything from iPhones to EV batteries to jet engines and are central to the modern economy.

For example:

• Neodymium, when added to iron and boron, produces extremely effective permanent magnets found in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, and headphones.

• Europium, when added to phosphors, creates the bright red color seen in LED screens and display monitors.

• Gadolinium, when included in medical imaging agents, greatly enhances the contrast and clarity of MRI scans.

REEs, despite their name, are not actually rare. They are just found in trace amounts and are hard to extract, process and refine.

Despite being incredibly important for the global economy, they gain very little public attention, with the last few weeks being a notable exception (thanks China!).

And now there is a brewing storm that makes paying attention to them more important than ever.

The Geopolitical Awakening of REEs

I admit, I took my time with this post. I wanted to see if the latest slew of articles represent a fad and a fleeting concern. But I became convinced over the past few weeks (months?) that REEs are the linchpin of a new geopolitical moment and the breeding ground for new geopolitical conflicts and competition.

If you are wondering, like I did, how we got here, the answer is quite simple:

• REEs are becoming increasingly central to the modern economy with each passing technological innovation

• China spent the last few decades building capacity, expertise and specialized know-how to secure overwhelming control over the supply chain. It also helps that they have large REE deposits

• China’s dominance over REEs isn’t only due to their deposits or their refining and processing acumen. China built a gargantuan ecosystem that spans across extraction to export of REEs

• As long as China was playing nice, the world was pretty much okay with it, allowing countries become too reliant on them

  

• Breaking free of China’s stronghold over REEs will require years of playing catch-up, a lot of money and technology innovation. Not to mention the environmental toll.

• China is willing today more than ever to place restrictions on REE exports and leverage REEs in geopolitical flex and trade negotiations

• Now, world nations are like “wait, what”

What was once a boring business issue is now at the center of global politics and trade wars.

China’s moves and its increasing willingness to restrict REE exports creates a new reality that the US, its allies and China’s neighbors are slowly awakening to. And they are not willing to just roll over.

They are reacting and retaliating.

OK Yeah But What Happened?

To tell the truth, if you’ve been following the nerdy side of the news, you have seen a few interesting movements in recent years:

1. The US Govt. invested $400M in MP Materials, the only US based operator of a REE mine (Reuters)

2. The Pentagon has launched a comprehensive plan for rare earth elements

3. US-based Critical Metals bought Greenland’s Tanbreez REE deposit in 2024 (Tanbreez)

These moves are clear attempts to break free from China’s stranglehold over REEs, a concern shared by both Biden and Trump administrations.

And yet, the real drama kicked into high gear just recently:

📰China moves to tighten REE exports, mostly for defense and chip users (Reuters)

📰In retaliation, President Trump announces 100% tariffs on China (BBC)

📰The Pentagon scrambles to stockpile REEs and other critical minerals to the tune of $1B (Mining.com)

If you thought that was the end of it, you couldn’t be more wrong.

A Storm Brewing on the Horizon

We are in a new geopolitical moment.

REEs are both pieces on the chessboard and a new kind of currency, used to trade blows in a bigger game for power and influence between world powers (or, China vs. everyone else).

China’s restrictions and the US’s reaction have sent everyone scrambling.

Don’t believe me? Check out these moves:

• Japan is looking to coordinate with G7 countries against China (Nippon)

• Europe did what it knows best: Held meetings with China (IndiaTimes)

• JPMorgan has announced a new Security and Resilience initiative that targets $1.5T over 10 years to strengthen US supply chain, targeting critical minerals and REEs

There are no signs that China is backing down, despite growing criticism (as was argued recently by the Council of Foreign Relations). But even if it did, China’s willingness to weaponize REEs signals, to me, a path of no return.

Other countries woke up, and they did not like what they saw.

The implications (both positive and negative) to the global economy are far reaching and consequential:

• Western countries and China’s neighbors are finally realizing they need to invest heavily in the REE supply chain, trying to develop capabilities and knowledge they did not have before

• If successful, Western countries might break free from China’s stranglehold, with the Dragon losing a powerful card, tilting the balance of powers away from China

• New capacity, new supply chains, and new infrastructure will likely be built

• New build and new budgets by national governments and large institutions (hey JPMorgan) will spur new investments, attracting many newcomers who are looking for a quick buck solid investment opportunities

• At the same time, REEs harbor dramatic risks for the planet, since their extraction, processing, and refining are carbon intensive and polluting

REEs are the new DefenseTech?

Growing defense threats and geopolitical rifts led to the rise in defense budgets and a pressing need to rearm, causing a surge in a new field of technology named DefenseTech.

With the new geopolitical moment we are in, are REEs the new DefenseTech? Has China, with its latest sparring exercise, created an environment where REEs will be a sustained source for innovation and investment?

My bet? Yes.

Like with every traditional industry, there are plenty of opportunities to innovate. Some potential ideas:

• AI can help track rare earth deposits

• Advanced materials innovation can help create cleaner extraction and refining processes

• Enterprise software can create efficiencies in complex supply chains

The list can go on, but the point is that this geopolitical moment that we’re in can also be a force for good, in the sense that it creates urgency to modernize the industry and inject new, emerging technologies.

More REEs Incoming

I get obsessed with some topics, I admit. REEs are my latest obsession.

Which is why I will be breaking down the topic more in depth in the coming weeks. Stay tuned for more content, fun and surprises!

Shoutouts before you go

I’ve seen some more writing about REEs recently and wanted to recommend some of my favorite takes:

• ’s Hyperdimensional provides excellent analysis on the need to break down China’s chokepoints

• weighed on the topic and argued the US can beat China if it wanted to

• The ultimate expert on minerals here, gave a crisp explanation and analysis of the tensions between US and China

If you’re into REEs, check them out!

That’s it for this week.

See you on Saturday for another edition of the Time Machine

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And if you have any comments, thoughts or suggestions, I’d love to hear from you in the comments (I also need the traffic 🤷‍♂️)