👋 Welcome to A World Reconfigured - your guide to a world changed by climate, geopolitics and technology. I write about how climate change is creating a new world with new rules, and often cover topics like the ❄️Arctic, 🤷‍♂️Rare Earths and 💻Data Centers.

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My Unsolicited Take: And Yet it Moves

Rejoice: An epic ceasefire is upon us!

Thanks to the powers that be, the Epic Fury that engulfed the Middle East has calmed down. While nothing seems to be resolved just yet and the ceasefire is still very much fragile, I welcome the temporary resumption of daily lives.

As we embrace the relative calm that has descended on the Middle East, a new storm is brewing far away, in the Pacific Ocean:

Super El Niño.

Oh great. A regular El Niño is bad enough. A super El Niño is going to be something else. By all accounts, it is likely going to bring about “punishing drought in some regions and severe storms in others, while also causing the Earth’s temperature to rise”.

We wanted to forget about Climate Change and focus on other things. The planet, on the hand, probably had other plans.

In face of is going to be a fixture of the coming years, I am reminded of Galileo’s Eppur si muove - And yet, it moves. I think it’s likely we’ll see Climate Change on the front pages soon enough.

Buckle up, it’s going to get rough.

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• US and EU want to sign a Critical Minerals pact (can I set my own price floor?)

• Greenland blocks a big rare earths mine (would you like a side of Uranium with that?)

The Smaller Things

• India is no longer willing to host COP33 (well it is a big party to organize and the guests always complain tbh)

• The UAE is going to the Arctic (they will arrive on a yacht)

In Other News: Russia warns Canada of “unintentional accidents” in the Arctic, EDF wants to electrify France and so much more.

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

US and EU to Reach Critical Minerals Agreement

What Happened? The EU and the US are on the verge of signing a comprehensive Critical Minerals pact. This pact gives something for everybody (except China): Brussels gets its producers closer to qualifying for US EV tax credits, Washington gets a clearer pipeline of “friendly” lithium, nickel and rare earths, and both get a framework for joint subsidies and offtakes that explicitly aims to reduce dependence on China.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because despite their mutual suspicion, both sides understand there are bigger things at stake, namely China’s dominance over rare earths and other critical minerals. This pact, if signed, is likely to usher a new stream of deals and will enable US companies, already operating in Europe, to enjoy better terms and conditions.

My Take: ✍️ I’ll believe it when I see it, but all in all sounds like good news.

Greenland Blocks Rare Earth Mine + Other Market Developments

What Happened? Remember the time everyone raved about Greenland’s critical minerals? Yeah, so not so fast: Greenland is moving to block the Kvanefjeld rare earths project by rejecting its licence renewal, effectively freezing one of the world’s largest undeveloped deposits amid local opposition and a ban on uranium mining.

Meanwhile, it’s not all bad news this week: Neo Performance has started producing heavy rare earth oxides at its Silmet site in Estonia and is ramping up a magnet plant in Narva, designed to provide Europe a small but real non‑Chinese processing and magnet manufacturing foothold.

Finally, the IEA this week released a rare earths report confirming what we talked about for the past few months, that China dominates magnet supply from mine to finished product. The IEA argues that ~$6.5 trillion of annual economic activity outside China relies on those magnets, while roughly $60 billion this decade could build alternative capacity.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this stream of news shows just how hard and non-linear mineral development is. On the one hand, you have excellent news coming from Estonia, with one step further in developing refining and magnet capacity outside of China. On the other hand, Greenland rejects the largest untapped mine at a time when the West needs it the most (as the IEA report clearly states).

My Take: ✍️ Oh boy this is just what Greenland needs right now, a big scandal about rare earths. I hope no one notices…

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

India Walks Back on Hosting COP33

What Happened: India has withdrawn its offer to host the COP33 UN climate summit in 2028, formally notifying the UNFCCC that it is stepping back from a bid Modi first announced at COP28. India claimed that this walkback is mostly technical.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because India is a rising player in the renewables and the decarbonization space with an growing track record, but recently has been walking back on a few commitments. It’s not clear whether this change is truly technical or it signifies a broader shift in strategy.

My Take: ✍️ I kind-of get it. Being host is never fun: You’re on the hook for drinks, you have to clean up and guests are never happy about the music. Also, who even wants to be accountable for 100+ countries agreeing on something.

But seriously, I am still bullish on India’s ability and willingness to decarbonize and grow its renewable capacity. It has all kinds of reasons to do so.

The UAE Goes to the Arctic

What Happened: The UAE has officially joined the Svalbard Treaty, becoming the 49th signatory and opening the door for Emirati scientists and institutions to operate research projects and other civilian activities in the Arctic archipelago under Norway’s sovereignty.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Arctic is truly a global issue, and there’s Gulf countries are not ones to miss a chance to be a part of the hottest show in town. While far away from the Middle East, it seems that the Arctic is recognized by the Emirates as a new frontier. It is likely the accession to the Svalbard treaty is an attempt to stay relevant in a newly developing geopolitical hotspot.

My Take: ✍️ Well that was definitely not in my 2026 bingo, but I think the more countries are involved in Polar research, the better. I salute the UAE’s astute geopolitical senses and wish my own country do the same. How about the Polar Abraham Accords?

Turkey, Empire of Batteries; Britain, Paragon of Sunshine

What Happened: A new EMBER report puts Turkey on track to overtake every EU country on battery storage, with more than 30 GW of projects approved as it scrambles for alternatives to volatile fossil fuel imports and coal-heavy power.

Meanwhile, Britain broke its solar generation record twice on the same day and gave the green light to the 800 MW Springwell solar farm in Lincolnshire, now set to become the country’s largest power‑producing solar project and supply electricity to around 180,000 homes.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is indicates the extent of Turkey’s energy ambitions and its capacity to become a renewables powerhouse, while the UK surprises everyone with new solar records, which is… well, unexpected.

My Take: ✍️ Another one not in my 2026 bingo. I’m not super surprised about Turkey, but you have to admit UK smashing solar records does not come to mind easily. Still, I guess this is good news for brits looking for a tan?

In Other News:

📰 Battery giant CATL taps Zijin founder as mining advisor (i wonder if they need a ghost blogger)

📰 EDF unveils €240m plan to boost electrification in France (anyone fancy an electric croissant?)

📰 Sweden's Stockholm Exergi advances massive bio-CCS plant capturing 800k tonnes CO2/year (Norway, watch out!)

📰 UK and Norway thwart Russian covert op near critical infrastructure (hey i was just passing by, nothing to see)

📰 Russia warns Arctic militarization by Canada & allies risks unintentional incidents (“uninternational incidents”… yeah ok)

📰 Microsoft pauses carbon removal purchases, shocking the industry it dominated (unless they can bundle in Copilot)

📰 AOMC merges with Odyssey to form $1B deep-sea miner (hang on to your undersea horses)

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My Unsolicited Take:

This past week we celebrated Passover.

It was a strange one. Given the ongoing war, my wife and I marked the Seder quietly at home rather than with our usual big family gathering (or travel, if i’m being honest).

On Passover we ask “Ma Nishtana” – what has changed. For me, one big change over the past year and a half has been building this newsletter with you.

The world we live in is a bit of a hot mess, as they say, but I still think there are early signs of good news and reason for optimism just beyond the horizon.

It may be hard to believe, but despite many headwinds, renewables are still a thing, and keep growing. There are early signs that the West just might be able to rebuild, reshore and regain mineral independence, and for all the signs that the Arctic is becoming a proto-war zone, there’s much that is still working there.

So, I choose to remind myself every Passover that there are still good news and good things just over the horizon.

It is also a great opportunity to thank each and every one of you for reading, commenting, sharing, and generally helping me keep this going. A special thanks to my greatest supporter – my wife Sarah.

I’ll be back to my usual shenanigans and trolling mood after the holiday. ‘till then, hope you all have a great one!

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• China thumbwrestles BHP for control over the iron ore market (someone will end up with a sore thumb)

• Data Center Wars: Politicians find out they have limited control over things (when did they not)

The Smaller Things

• Strait of Hormuz blues recap: coal and gas are the comeback kids (old kids on the block and other 90s references)

• France wants to use a resilience clause in wind tenders to decarbonize and reduce Chinese reliance (hey I guess you CAN eat your cake and keep it whole)

In Other News: More implications of Epic Fury on energy, Japan is hungry for minerals and so much more

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

China Thumbwresles BHP over Iron Market

What Happened? Bloomberg released a deep-dive this week on China's quiet battle with mining giant BHP over the iron ore market, in what I can only describe as a mineral version of thumbwrestling.

China imports ~70% of the world's seaborne iron ore but can't control the price. So, Beijing has been wrestling with the three major producers to change pricing, moving from a dollar-denominated price (set by producers) to a yuan-denominated one (set by China). BHP refused, and the relationship has hit a wall.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this recent bout of thumbwrestling looking like a pricing war, but it is really a Chinese attempt to bend the Iron Ore market to its will. This is yet another attempt by Beijing to tilt the global balance of powers in its favor, trying to shift contracts from dollars to yuan.

China is already trying to expand yuan popularity in oil trade (thanks to Epic Fury). If it pulls this off in iron ore, it’s another small but real step toward loosening the dollar’s dominance in global trade.

My Take: ✍️ The thumbwrestle is interesting, but the real kicker is how China goes about this: Consolidating control with one entity named China Mineral Resource Group, which apparently can just tell mills what to do.

Data Center Wars: The Road Goes on Forever

What Happened? Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. AOC finally introduced their long-awaited federal moratorium bill on new data center construction:

While this moratorium is unlikely to become the law of the federal land, Maine’s State House passed a bill banning data center builds until 2027.

At the same time, New Jersey's newly elected governor, who ran on limiting data centers and capping electricity prices, is facing yet another possible rate hike, after prices rose 20% this past year.

Meanwhile, new data centers keep getting announced globally, because the industry didn't get the memo (or threw it away).

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this string of event shows just how heated and chaotic the landscape is becoming. They also show just how limited States’ control is over prices, and despite best intentions and campaign promises, there’s not a lot that can be done in the short term to alleviate people’s economic burdens. The problem is - the short term is what matters politically.

My Take: ✍️ The chaotic flurry of weekly happenings is exactly why I called it the Data Center Wars.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Strait of Hormuz Blues: Coal & Gas are the Comeback Kids

What Happened: The war's energy ripples keep spreading:

• Europe is weighing a return to emergency fuel restrictions;

• Italy pushed its coal phase-out to 2038 and Germany is eyeing mothballed coal plants.

• The US hit record natural gas export volumes, mostly to Asia.

• And UK Energy Secretary Miliband is perhaps leaning toward approving new North Sea gas drilling off Aberdeen, reversing a ban that was central to Labour's energy platform.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because despite speculation (and some reporting) that countries are weighing moving towards renewables in the long term, right now many are focused on hydrocarbons as a source of security. Epic Fury goes to show that the path to renewables isn’t a straight line, if at all.

My Take: ✍️ I still think that in the long run, renewables are going to dominate, but you know what they say - in the long run we’re all dead.

France Wants to Boost Renewables AND Europe

What Happened: France announced 12 gigawatts of renewable energy tenders, mostly offshore wind, to reduce fossil fuel exposure. The tenders include a "Resilience" criterion designed to prioritize European components and limit Chinese ones.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is an interesting attempt for Europe to have it both ways: Decarbonize AND prevent further dependence on China. The resilience clause is trying to do something Europeans are not famous for: Leveraging demand to create excess supply of the right stuff.

My Take: ✍️ Europe gets a bad rep for being overbeaurocratic, slow and generally clueless, but it’s clear that when European countries really want to do something, they can find the way to do so.

In Other News:

📰 Iran War threatens Gulf petrostates' climate tech investments via Strait of Hormuz closure (I guess not a good time to ask them to fund my new startup)

📰 ARENA funds five projects $13m for Australia's industrial decarbonisation (ok maybe it is a good time?)

📰 U.S. Forest Service closes 57 wildfire research stations amid HQ move to Utah (ugh, you sure about that?)

📰 ReElement, Mitsubishi Materials ink strategic investment deal to scale US rare earth and battery metal recycling and refining for more secure, lower-impact critical mineral supply chains (Minerals are big in Japan)

📰 Climate investors spy big upside in India’s new grid-and-batteries-focused climate plan (thinking of starting Modi Venture Partners)

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My Unsolicited Take:

Hi everyone,

My (beautiful) wife tells me that she always thought she’d be a student of history, not a participant. And yet, these past couple of years have felt like we’ve been active participants as history is being written.

There’s an adage I keep coming back to: There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.

These past few weeks (and even months) have felt like decades, and not only thanks to the Strait of Hormuz everyone is talking about. Yes, the Strait is the main show in town, and you probably are right in following it.

However, there are other shows around the world that make decades happen, even if they are less flashy than drones and ships. They are quieter, but warrant our attention.

From Pakistan to Denmark, there are signals that our world is changing, and quite rapidly. This past week, for example, critical minerals were the subject of geopolitical realignment, while the Danish election may determine the direction of the Arctic. Even the Strait had less visible, yet important, reverberations.

This Roundup is dedicated, once again, to the less discussed shows, the shows that make decades happen.

Hope you enjoy this edition of the Roundup.

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• The Strait of Hormuz had a few less discussed impacts (like me getting cabin fever)

• Critical Minerals had another killer week (at this rate they should have a world tour)

The Smaller Things

• Thanks to Trump, Danish elections heat up while focusing on the frozen kingdom (thank you for your attention to this matter!)

• Google came up with 1GW of flexible load (maybe they can make data centers a bit less unpopular)

In Other News: Climate-resistent apples, shifting tornadoes and much, much more.

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Strait of Hormuz Blues: What You’ve Missed

What Happened? Sure, everyone’s talking about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone’s an expert on the geo-eco-political implications, and it’s clear by now its a major artery of global commodity trade:

I want to dedicate this section to three things that most people noticed less:

First, cars: The rise in oil prices thanks to the closure of the Strait led to an uptick in EV adoption, mostly in Asia. While Western countries experienced less of this trend, Asian countries like Vietnam have reported that EV sales have skyrocketed. Who benefits? China, of course, who dominates the EV market today.

Second, Pakistan: While many countries started rethinking their dependence on oil and contemplate switching to renewables to insulate themselves from similar shocks, Pakistan already managed to hedge against the impacts of the closure, thanks to its rapid adoption of solar energy, primarily of the Rooftop variety.

The scale of Pakistan’s solar adoption is supposedly enormous, but not entirely clear. Some estimates put solar to account 20% of new generation in 2024. At any rate, this adoption can serve as an example for other countries looking to insulate from such supply shocks.

Third, Solar Panels: One sector to feel the pinch is the solar industry. According to Heatmap News, Aluminum is a major victim of the closure, squeezing profit margins on solar development projects.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because these lesser discussed impacts can indicate much bigger shifts that are taking place, and indicate that China is not completely out of pocket when it comes to this war. Finally, Pakistan’s solar adoption might convince other countries to follow suite.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah, the closure of the Straits is important, can’t argue with that. Still, I think it will unfold long-term quite differently than what most people think.

Once Again, Minerals at the Heart of Geopolitics

What Happened? Another busy week for critical minerals.

While everyone was watching the Strait, President Trump met Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi and, Pearl Harbor jokes aside, announced a joint Action Plan on critical minerals to deepen cooperation on rare earths and other key inputs.

Outside the US, Canada signed an MoU with Peru on critical-minerals mining, and the EU and Australia moved forward on a free trade deal that would give Europe better access to Australian resources. In the private sector, Aclara advanced a separation pilot in Virginia, and Lynas produced the first samarium oxide outside China, a crucial step for magnet supply chains that feed platforms like the F‑35.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because even with Hormuz snarling commodity flows, the push to rebuild Western supply chains and loosen China’s grip on rare earths has not slowed at all. If anything, this week underscored how quickly “mineral independence” is moving from talking point to implementation.

My Take: ✍️ None of this is shocking. Japan is jumpy about China’s threats, Canada is busy playing Middle Power, and the private sector is doing what it always does: executing. But beneath the business-as-usual mood, the race for mineral independence is clearly accelerating, and it isn’t easing off anytime soon.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

There’s Something Frozen in the Kingdom of Denmark

What Happened: Denmark’s upcoming election will be a tough fight for Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen as she seeks a third term, and until recently her chances looked… not great.

Trump has changed that calculus,

much like he did for Mark Carney. Greenland, defense, and a shifting world order are now at the center of the campaign, earning Frederiksen points for standing up to Trump, while Greenlandic politicians use the attention to press for more from Copenhagen.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Denmark’s vote is an early harbinger of what’s coming: more contested, defense-heavy elections across Europe as security politics take over domestic agendas. It will also help shape the Arctic’s future, since a third Frederiksen term likely means a continued “not for sale” line on Greenland.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah, like I keep saying: The Greenland saga is nowhere near finished, and as Danes head to the polls they’ll be voting, among other things, to defend the current Arctic status quo.

Google Shows Up with Flexible Demand

What Happened: Google announced the integration of 1 gigawatt of “demand response” capacity into long‑term utility contracts, letting it shift AI workloads in times of need to help stabilize the grid and support cheaper, smarter electricity growth.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because just as Hyperscalers are getting much heat (and hate) for their data centers, Google is coming in the nick of time with something that might actually help prevent grid stress and might impact prices.

My Take: ✍️ Google has a long track record of backing novel energy tech and signing huge renewable deals. I’m curious to see if and to what extent they will scale this ability.

In Other News:

📰 Norwegian police shifts counter-hybrid training to Russia border amid Moscow's bill enabling armed rescues of detained citizens abroad (yeah not on my visiting destination anytime soon)

📰 South Korea creates a working group uniting government, ports, and research institutes to accelerate eco‑friendly Arctic shipping routes and technologies (can I buy one of those ships?)

📰 UK Reform Party pledges to eliminate green levies, VAT on energy bills, saving households ~£200/year amid rising oil prices (two things are certain in life: death and green taxes)

📰 US faces shifting tornado patterns with rising activity in Southeast/Northeast amid severe storms, as climate change complicates attribution amid Midwest outbreaks (I’m not going to the Midwest anytime soon either!)

📰 Denmark's rural voters backlash against sprawling solar farms ("iron fields") ahead of elections, halting projects despite 90% renewable electricity (like Frederiksen didn’t have enough on her plate…)

📰 Washington State University unveils Sunflare apple, bred for climate resilience like Cosmic Crisp but hardier against erratic weather and costs (yum!)

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My Unsolicited Take:

Hi everyone,

It is week three of Epic Fury / Roaring Lion / the Iran war. Everyone is focusing, with good reason, on the oil and gas supply shock and the impact it will have over the region, and the rest of the world.

I agree it’s a big issue, but looking ahead I’m more concerned about mineral shortages. While I’m trying to release a more methodical argument, the core idea is that wars tend to negatively impact mineral supplies and rapidly increase demand.

It’s not a bad thing, but it has major implications for geopolitics and everyone else. From raising prices for consumer electronics to giving China an extra edge, I suspect the war’s impacts will reverberate far longer and wider than we tend to think.

Elsewhere, lots of things are happening while we focus on the Iran War. Canada is going HAM in the Arctic, China continues its FYP process and Data Centers are still very unpopular in the US, threatening to be a bigger issue in the midterms than gasoline prices. And that’s just one week.

What can I say, 2026 is proving itself to be an even wackier year than 2025. How much worse can it get? Like Donald Trump likes to say: We’ll see what happens.

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Mark Carney had a big week in the Arctic (he brought a $35B coat)

• Data Centers are the defining issue of the midterms (well a lot of people hate them)

The Smaller Things

• Japan signs a deal with Lynas to secure rare earth supplies after China threats (they never learn, do they)

• China signs the Environmental Protection Code into law (but covers mountains in solar panels 🤷‍♂️)

• US DOE wants to give you money for Grid upgrades and critical minerals (do they want to support my writing?)

In Other News: India goes back to fossil fuels, Critical Metals greenlights Tanbreez, Virginia legalizes balcony solar and more.

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Mark Carney’s Big Arctic Week

What Happened? Canadian PM Mark Carney was very busy this week:

First, he announced a landmark ~C$35B plan to “defend, build, and transform the North”, which includes massive investments in military bases, infrastructure and even community projects to strengthen Canada’s position in the Arctic (and the broader Canadian North).

If that wasn’t enough, Carney traveled to Norway, to observe NATO’s Arctic military exercise, Cold Response. Later, Carney traveled to meet with leaders of the Northern countries. Carney did mostly watching and talking, but he did give a killer speech:

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Carney is on a journey to transform Canada into an Arctic superpower (and a general Middle Power). True to his Middle Powers speech in Davos last year, Carney is focused on positioning Canada as a leader in the Arctic, a topic that is becoming top of mind for many countries. Some of this is, of course, performative, since it’s not clear how much Canada is actually contributing to Cold Response1. Oh well, we do live in a Social Media world.

My Take: ✍️ I generally like Carney and I like Canada. I think it’s a net good having Canada playing an outsized role in the Arctic, as long as it does so without ignoring the native communities. We’ll see what happens.

Oh also, I made an AI-generated breakdown of the Arctic plan, just for you:

Data Centers Wars: It’s All Politics (and Prices)

What Happened? In the latest installment of your favorite TV show “The Data Center Wars”, it became pretty clear this week that DCs are now a major part of the political landscape in the US.

Heatmap News did a fantastic job at highlighting just how DCs are playing a major role in shaping US politics ahead of the midterms, pushing even Republicans to take a stand against them.

The AI industry is pushing back, of course, with a new $100M super PAC that is currently targeting Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has been very vocal against data centers.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because data centers are quickly becoming a key operative issue of the midterms, with the AI industry standing on one side and a lot of angry people on the other. You might be tempted to think it’s gas prices, but the upcoming midterms will likely focus on AI, Data Centers and, well, permitting and stuff.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah I’m staying out of this one.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Japan Gives China the Rare Earth Finger

What Happened: Japan amended its deal with Australia's Lynas Rare Earths to extend it through 2038 and include improved terms. The deal guarantees Japan 5,000 tonnes of light rare earths (NdPr) annually with a price floor of $110 per kilogram (similar to the price of MP Materials’ price floor). Additionally, Lynas will reserve 75% of its highly prized heavy rare earths specifically for the Japanese market.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this deal is a part of Japan’s series moves to break free from China’s rare earths chokepoint. Just a few months ago Japan decided to embark on an experiment to deep sea mine rare earths:

This latest deal comes shortly after China threatened to place export controls over rare earths in retaliation for PM Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan. Japan took the threats seriously, so it seems, and is working to create alternative supply chains.

My Take: ✍️ Instead of putting Japan in its so-called place, China’s threats galvanized the Takaichi government to find alternatives. It seems like China doesn’t want to learn the Oct 2025 lesson. Oh well.

China Signs Landmark Climate Legislation

What Happened: A week after Beijing received major flak for meh climate commitments in its 15th Five-Year-Plan, China adopted the Ecological and Environmental Code. The code consolidates dozens of fragmented rules into one sweeping legal framework. It officially elevates tools like carbon emissions trading and footprint management into national law.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because despite the criticism and underwhelming climate targets, China still appears to be taking environmental regulation seriously and trying to keep decarbonizing. Given China’s scale and size, this move will have visible impacts.

My Take: ✍️ Not sure how this new piece of legislation goes hand in hand with solar‑panel‑covered mountains:

US DOE Wants to Give You Money

What Happened: US Dept. of Energy announced two major funding packages this week: $1.9 billion to rapidly upgrade the U.S. power grid using advanced, higher-capacity wires, and $500 million to boost domestic processing and recycling of critical battery minerals.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the US is finally getting serious in promoting innovation and technology in its quest to modernize its infrastructure, and continues the push towards mineral independence. With respect to the Grid, the US is due for an upgrade of its aging electrical grid, and it’s about time we’ve seen a major funding opportunity.

My Take: ✍️ Mom always told me I should become a Reconductor. But noooo, I always know better 😤

In Other News:

📰 📰 India turns to polluting fuels like biomass, kerosene, and fuel oil amid war-led gas shortages (e tu, Modi?)

📰 US forecasters predict El Niño by September, threatening higher global temperatures and crop disruptions. (I guess this is the real comeback kid)

📰 Solar auctions & PPAs delivered 92 GW shielding Europe post-2022 crisis (and you thought renewables are bad…)

📰 Palisades fire victims propose resilience district for disaster hardening amid L.A. housing hurdles (big if successful)

📰 Virginia legalizes balcony solar, second after Utah (pack your bags, we’re going to VA!)

📰 Critical Metals greenlights a $30M push to fast‑track its Tanbreez heavy rare earths project in Greenland toward late‑decade production as Western allies seek non‑Chinese supply (oh hey, at least somebody is doing something about it)

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Hi everyone,

Last week I skipped my weekly roundup thanks to the breakout of Epic Fury / Roaring Lion. I did opine that it’s too early to tell how the war will unfold and therefore analysts should wait a second for things to develop:

I will be opining once again soon with my thoughts about what I think you should pay attention to, but for now I’m trying to get back at it with the weekly update on things you probably missed.

Hope you enjoy this edition of the Roundup!

~Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Iran War makes energy complicated (when is it not)

• China released its 15th Five-Year-Plan (can’t wait for the movie)

The Smaller Things

• Canada’s announcement-palooza at PDAC (putting money where Mark Carney’s mouth is)

• Data Center Wars: Tech CEOs sign a pledge (it’s like a pinky promise but for adults)

In Other News: Nuclear is hype except in China, Planet heating up faster than we thought and so much more.

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Iran War Makes Energy Complicated

What Happened? It’s almost impossible to recap the week without addressing the war with Iran (Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion), and the situation evolves daily (especially for those, like me, who are within missile range).

Recently, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off almost 20% of the world’s oil supply. The conflict has spiked oil and LNG prices, rattled global markets, and sent the Trump Administration scrambling for solutions.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the war and the closure of Hormuz will have both short term and more enduring, long-term impacts on the global energy sector and will have unintended consequences. One such long-term consequence might actually be a good thing for renewable energy, convincing countries to move away from “risky” oil and LNG and move to more resilient solar and wind. Not everyone agrees, though.

My Take: ✍️ I know everyone is fixated on the energy markets right now, but I think the real hidden crunch will be in the critical mineral sector. Stay tuned for a deeper dive from me on this topic later this week.

China Releases 15th Five-Year Plan

What Happened? China finally dropped its long-awaited 15th Five-Year-Plan (2026-2030) this week, and for decarbonization buffs, it’s a mixed bag. On one hand, Beijing disappointed climate advocates by weakening its carbon intensity reduction target to 17% (down from 18%) and remaining stubbornly ambiguous on coal. On the other hand, the plan expands carbon markets and mandates massive “clean-energy bases” in the desert to continue the renewable buildout.

Think Tank CREA summed it best:

China’s 15th Five-year Plan continues the pattern in the country’s climate policy established in the past five years: strong support for scaling up clean energy and emerging low-carbon industries, but continued caution when it comes to setting firm constraints on fossil fuel consumption and emission growth.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because, well, it’s China. China’s FYPs help us understand the trajectory of a superpower. They signal exactly what the global push toward decarbonization will look like over the next half-decade. Right now, it looks like Beijing will continue oscillating between its desire for global climate leadership and its domestic need for grid stability.

My Take: ✍️ I'll be watching to see how China continues to push down global prices on solar and wind, but the real space to watch is their progress on scaling nuclear energy while the rest of the world lags behind.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Canada’s Announcement-Palooza at PDAC

What Happened: Canada has hosted the 2026 Prospectors and Developers Associations Conference in Toronto. Canada’s government leveraged the occasion to announce a host of investments and programs, including:

• $1.5B (CAD) First and Last Mile Fund, designed to build infrastructure to support remote mines and processing hubs

• $2B (CAD) Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, designed to secure supplies of graphite, lithium and rare earths. It’s the Canadian response to US’s Vault (well, kind of)

• Critical Minerals Production Alliance expansion, unlocking $12.1B (CAD) in capital alongside 12 allied nations to reduce reliance on adversarial supply chains

• A Joint Declaration of Intent with Greenland designed to increase collaboration between the two countries on energy security, minerals and Arctic infrastructure

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Canada is putting its money where Mark Carney’s mouth is:

It’s no coincidence this comes just months after Carney’s landmark Davos speech. Canada is actively gearing up to be the sherpa of the Middle Powers, investing heavily in critical industries to buy itself options, security, and global influence.

My Take: ✍️ I’m with Canada on this, and happy to see its increased role in the Arctic. I’m impressed with just how much Canada is stepping in show friendship to Greenland (even though Canada is clearly taking advantage of the situation)

Data Center Wars: The Great Energy Pinky Promise

What Happened: Tech CEOs met with President Donald Trump this week to sign the Ratepayer Protection Pledge”, which is a nice way of saying Bring Your Own Energy.

The pledge includes five core commitments:

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is one of the Administration’s key efforts to address the growing political tensions caused by Data Centers (they are really unpopular) ahead of the Midterms. The strategy relies entirely on BYOE. While it sounds great in theory, it’s a double-edged sword: critics warn the "grid defection" cost shift could actually backfire, leaving individual ratepayers to foot an even higher bill.

My Take: ✍️ Two question come to mind: (1) Will companies actually comply with the pledge?; (2) If they will, will it work? Honestly, I’m not sure it matters. With the Midterms just around the corner, this is about optics, and there is zero chance we'll see structural change before November.

In Other News:

📰 Earth’s warming rate has nearly doubled since 2015, now 0.35°C/decade. This is the first statistically confirmed acceleration, pointing to a Paris breach before 2030. (oh boy it CAN get worse)

📰 Trump’s Cook Inlet offshore lease sale attracted zero bids, the first of six Congress mandated, exposing the gap between energy dominance rhetoric and market reality. (I guess no one wants to drill baby drill?)

📰 Coastal sea levels are a foot higher than assumed in 90% of climate models, with up to 3 feet more in Southeast Asia, putting 37% more land at risk. (oh hey prepare your wetsuit)

📰 Barclays warned clean energy faces stranded asset risk as capital rotates back toward fossil fuels following the Iran war shock. (well, for now at least)

📰 Bill Gates’ TerraPower received its federal construction permit for a sodium-cooled reactor in Wyoming — the first advanced nuclear permit in decades.

📰 Meanwhile, Bloomberg pushed back on nuclear renaissance hype, noting most announced projects are years behind. China is doing well, however (Nuclear is big, but mostly in China)

📰 Cameco signed a $1.9B uranium supply deal with India — the largest civil nuclear fuel contract in India’s history, as Modi doubles down on atomic energy (Modi is in a Nuclear mood)

📰 Vermont’s clean heat standard collapsed under political and economic pressure — a cautionary tale about the gap between passing climate law and making it survive. (well I got nothing funny to say, it’s just sad)

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I am not a geopolitical analyst and coverage of conflicts is mostly outside of my area of expertise (one might ask what is my area of expertise, but that’s another story for another day).

However, as I live within the range of Ballistic Missiles and spent the day mostly in a bomb shelter, doing the regular roundup seems a bit tone deaf and not very interesting.

So I thought I’d use this opportunity to say something about the flurry of geopolitical analyses that one can see over Substack and X (and hopefully never on LinkedIn) and the deluge that will come:

It’s way too early.

It’s tempting to start analyzing, pontificating and predicting:

• What does it mean for the great power competition and China?

• Will we see a new day in Iran?

• Will there be another Lion-themed operation in 6 months?

• Will Iran sign an agreement with the US?

But the truth is: We don’t really know. It’s way too soon to tell, and the chips are still falling.

Operation Rising Lion was considered a stellar military success. I remember the first few hours and how every one was sure we were done with Iran. I remember the post-war celebrations.

And yet, 8 months later, we're in another operation. It’s not to say we’re back to where we started, that’s probably not true (on all sides). However, it took a while to really understand the operation and put it into context.

My point is not that writers shouldn’t analyze or share thoughts. I do that all the time. On the contrary - we need the plurality of opinions and analyses.

But if I’ve learned anything from the past few years is that some things take time to play out and fully understand.

So, I would take a deep breath and try to wait for things to play out and reserve judgment until the operation is over.

Stay safe, and hopefully I will resume my usual armchair exploration soon.

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TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• India’s Big Week (AI and Wind and Minerals, oh my!)

• California signs MoU with UK (Newsom Miliband on the 2028 ballot?!)

The Smaller Things

• Europe goes submarine hunting (where are the Beatles when you need them)

• King of Denmark visits Greenland (with a royal handwave to match!)

In Other News: Climate superfunds, IEA stops believing in climate change and plenty of other stuff

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

India’s Big Week: AI, Climate and Minerals

What Happened? This was a pretty big for Narendra Modi and the fourth largest economy in the world:

First, India held a widely covered AI Impact Week, with many of the world’s leading AI CEOs on stage alongside Modi (including a cringe moment with two of them) and culminating in the Delhi Declaration. Second, India joined Pax Silica, the US-led alliance designed to secure AI, semiconductor and critical mineral supply chains.

Finally, India partnered with the UK to create a joint offshore wind taskforce that is supposed to generate ~71GW of wind power available along India’s coasts.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because India is going for all the marbles and making major moves across three of the most important topics these days. India is trying to position itself as a world leader on par with the US and China, and hosting an AI summit is definitely one interesting way to do so. In the meantime, India is trying to make sure it does not have to choose and is playing with multiple geopolitical parties.

My Take: ✍️ Fun times ahead with India. In my 2025 yearly recap, I mentioned that I will expanding my coverage on India in 2026, and Modi is really making my job easy. Lots to expect to!

Newsom-Miliband on the 2028 Ticket?!

What Happened? California Governor Gavin Newsom signed this week a Memorandum of Understanding for climate collaboration with… UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband???

The agreement is set to create a framework to scale renewable energy and enhance technological and scientific ties between the land of eternal sunshine and California.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because… I’m actually not really sure, but it sounds like a big deal. this collaboration shows how states can take the place of the federal government in promoting climate goals, while scoring political points. Trump’s reaction probably did not surprise Newsom, who is constantly looking to troll differentiate himself from Trump and signaling that he should be on the 2028 ballot. It just might work.

My Take: ✍️ I mean… yeah, why not. Maybe Miliband will be the runner up as Newsom’s VP candidate? Stranger things happened.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Europe is Hunting for (Yellow?) Submarines

What Happened: Norway, Germany and the UK agreed to share responsibility of hunting for submarines in the High North, while relieving the US from the same duty. Several other countries, including France, have indicated they are interested in joining the initiative.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this agreement may be a signal to the US that Europe is willing to take more responsibility for its security, and for the security of the US. Just recently, an article illustrated Chinese efforts to map the northern seas, highlighting the concern the US shares over submarine movements close to its borders.

My Take: ✍️ Smart move, Europe. The submarine hunting initiative allows Europe to actually increase its defense posture in the region, show the Trump Administration it is serious about security and relieve US of security burden, all at the same time. Kudos!

I’m just wondering if the Beatles are a part of the UK contingent.

Denmark’s King Visits Greenland

What Happened: Denmark’s King, Frederik X, flew into Nuuk for his second visit to Greenland in under a year, aiming to project unity between Denmark and the autonomous territory amid renewed US pressure from President Donald Trump to acquire the island.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Greenland saga is not over, with negotiations still underway. As customary in such negotiations, there’s a constant need to send signals of your position. The King’s visit is certainly one.

My Take: ✍️ I still think a renewed flareup of the Greenland saga is only a matter of time, and it seems like Denmark and Greenland understand that, hence their need to show that they are still not interested in selling.

In Other News:

📰 Finland plans a €65m state-backed pilot mine to develop Lapland’s Sokli rare earths and phosphate deposit, seen as key to EU mineral security (Make Finland Rare Again)

📰 US forces global energy watchdog to drop climate as a core priority after Trump officials threaten to quit the agency

📰 Denmark plans more F-35 missiles and Arctic gear to boost NATO-aligned winter readiness (King of Denmark should have traveled on F35 instead)

📰 States are pushing “climate superfund” bills to make fossil fuel companies pay for climate damages despite Trump’s opposition (somebody is trying to make an impression)

📰 Climate change supercharged deadly floods in Spain’s Valencia region, worsening the 2024 storm that killed over 230 people and caused about €29 billion in damage (my condolences to the families of those killed)

📰 Private equity giants are circling battered clean-energy developers, betting on a rebound after last year’s deal slump (Can I buy in on that)

📰 Supreme Court knocks down Trump’s emergency tariffs, likely cutting some solar, battery, and clean-tech costs (let the lawsuits roll)

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Hey there folks!

As world leaders gather at the Munich Security Conference, I’m here to remind you that the world doesn’t stop to convene, so here’s the weekly roundup for you!

Before we start, last week I published some thoughts about how recent US moves to bolster critical mineral supply chains like Vault and FORGE can create a big opportunity for startups:

I want to see you prove me wrong would love to hear your feedback, and if you’re in this space - would love to hear from you!

Hope you enjoy this roundup!

Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• NATO launches Arctic Sentry Mission (sounds like we’re in X-Men or something)

• China’s Emissions Fall Flat (down but not out)

• US repeals the endangerment finding (“Objection!” is going to be the word of 2026)

The Smaller Things

• Washington State wants data centers to bring their own energy (does energy come in six packs?)

• Greenland just might build its first data center (I hear AI loves the cold)

In Other News: Europe can’t make up its mind, Russian tourist town becomes hotspot for shadow fleet, Hornsea 3 starts construction and more

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

NATO Launches Arctic Sentry

What Happened? NATO launched "Arctic Sentry," a new operation that coordinates existing military drills in the Arctic under one command led by Joint Force Command Norfolk, bringing together exercises to boost the alliance's presence in the region. Arctic Sentry is a response to rising Arctic militarization and growing Chinese influence.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because NATO is trying to get a 2 for 1 combo: Respond to growing ambitions of its rivals, Russia and China, for the Arctic; AND show Trump that NATO takes Arctic security seriously.

My Take: ✍️ Mark Rutte showed once again that he is an adept politician, but I don’t think it’s going to help for the long term. Something gives me the feeling the Greenland saga will have a Part III…

China’s Emission are Falling

What Happened? Whaddayaknow, sometimes there are good news. A new report by Carbonbrief shows that China’s emissions fell by 1% in the last quarter of 2025, extending a tend of “flat or falling” emissions from March 2024.

The decline hit every major sector except chemicals, while solar, wind, nuclear and batteries covered enough new electricity demand to let coal generation fall.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because China is one of the world’s largest emitters, and is an industrial who literally moves the needle. While Washington dismantles climate policy and fights renewables, Beijing's emissions drop (if it holds) delivers both geopolitical leverage and real climate progress.

At the same time, it’s still early to tell whether this is a momentary decline or a structural milestone.

My Take: ✍️ China is proving you can grow and decarbonize at the same time, edging closer to full Electrostate status while the US goes the other direction.

US Repeals the Endangerment Finding

What Happened? While China leads on emissions reduction, the US’s Environmental Protection Agency has repealed the Endangerment Finding of 2009, which effectively serves as the basis for the EPA’s ability to regulate carbon emissions.

This move is framed as the largest act of deregulation in US history and is set to have monumental impacts on the US, and bring about a barrage of legal challenges. Dan Wang was probably right, describing the US a nation of Lawyers (full disclosure: guilty as charged)

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because if courts uphold it, the federal government effectively gives its authority up to regulate emissions from power plants, vehicles and industry, kicking climate policy to states, markets and future administrations.

My Take: ✍️ This could backfire quite spectacularly: it might make states more willing to regulate emissions, as there’s no more federal preemption on carbon regulation. It’s not at all clear that this is the end of carbon emission regulation.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Data Center Wars: Washington joins BYO Energy Club

What Happened: Washington state introduced new legislation that mandates data centers to bring their own energy sources and not rely on the grid for power. Washington state joins other states, like Oregon and Minnesota in introducing such legislation (though WA’s bill did not pass yet). The bill comes at a time when lots of people are angry at data centers for hiking their electricity bills.

Not everyone’s sold. Critics argue that BYOE mandates could drive energy prices up, not down.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is how the data center wars are being fought: Through state bills, moratoriums and mandates trying to balance affordability with keeping the AI boom from fleeing

My Take: ✍️ is right: people hate data centers, and policymakers and lawmakers are trying to deal with the growing frustration with them. I don’t think it will help, though. These solutions are Band-Aids. What the US need is a deep, structural permitting reform that will allow adding more capacity.

The Great Data Center of Greenland

What Happened: A former Trump aide and a former Greenland official want to build a mega AI data‑center campus near Kangerlussuaq, starting at 300MW and maybe growing to 1.5GW.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Greenland has been at the center of news recently, but no one spoke of AI. Whether encouraged by the US government or a pure financial play, a data center built by a US investor might go either way: It will either make things more tense between US and Europe, or it might be cool by everyone.

My Take: ✍️ CALLED IT! The Arctic’s freezing weather is helpful for data centers (at least on paper), and I suspected that the growing need for cooling will get developers to try their luck in the Arctic. I’m not sure it’s a great idea due to the harsh conditions in the region, but sure, why not, give it a shot.

In Other News:

📰 Critical Metals confirms high-grade heavy rare earths at Tanbreez Greenland project (should I pack my bags already?)

📰 Heat pumps still beat gas furnaces in 2025 despite sales dip (Black Eyed Peas were right after all)

📰 New SEC rules made it harder for small shareholders to push companies on climate (I guess I should cancel my next campaign)

📰 Ørsted receives first foundations for world's largest offshore wind farm Hornsea 3 (let’s hope they don’t get second wind)

📰 German Chancellor Merz signals openness to revise or delay EU carbon market rules (Europe make up your mind already!)

📰 Arctic tourist resort Teriberka is becoming a hub for sanctioned Russian LNG tankers (I wonder what the truckstop looks like over there)

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TL;DR:

What’s this about:

• Critical Minerals’ October 2025 watershed moment and its impact on innovation

• Project Vault as a potential market-making move for startups

• Who knows, maybe your linkedin feed will soon be flooded by entrepreneurs going into mining innovation

Big Week for Critical Minerals

Last week was a big week for Critical Minerals at the best party in town, the 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial:

Naturally, the Ministerial generated plenty of headlines and there was no shortage of announcements and deals: FORGE, Vault and a host of bilateral deals took center stage as US leaders took to the podium.

Equally naturally, there were plenty of takes by the broader community. Some of my favorites include:

✍️ gave the broader geopolitical context of the Administration’s moves

✍️ provided historical context of stockpiles and provided a helpful analytical framework to think about Vault

🖇️ Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes talked about the different aspects of Vault and its comparison to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

🌐 Dr. Gracelin Baskaran released an overview of Vault

Vault, the $12B critical mineral stockpile that was announced created waves and was at center of attention, with good reason.

I also became somewhat obsessed with it, but for a different reason than most takes out there. I think it is a prime example of how geopolitics reshape tech and venture.

Before we get into Vault and what it means for startups, let’s take a look at innovation for critical minerals.

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Throwing Innovation Out There

We’re still in the early days of the Western response to China’s dominance over critical minerals. In this multidimensional game of mineral chess, not all pieces were moved.

FORGE, Vault and other tools are just the opening plays. So far, Vault seems promising, though there are many open questions.

One thing is patently clear: The US and its allies are increasingly willing to make market-moving plays and are willing to invest to catalyze the private market into action. Some scholars argue that Vault is a move that is trying to out-China China, but I don’t think so. I think this is move plays exactly to the strength of a superpower that shaped a world order based on private power.

Governments made their move (at least for now). The question is: Are venture investors listening?

Innovation as a Critical Lever

Innovation in a critical piece of the puzzle. New technologies have the power to reshape geopolitics (Internet, Social Media and AI are prime examples). In the mineral context, there are some interesting examples of innovation:

• AI-enabled exploration and mapping

• AI-enabled separation method discovery (like AI Drug Discovery but for mining)

• Advanced Drilling and Mining Capabilities

• Advanced recycling and reprocessing methods

• Mine operation digitization (robotics, autonomous drilling)

• REE alternatives

Just like with regulation, the term innovation is often thrown out there without discussing where it will come from, what the roadblocks are and how can we lift them.

There are many sources of innovation, from startups to corporate R&D. The problem is: time. Or, more likely, lack of it.

That is why venture-backed startups are probably the most important type of innovation, with their ability to move and break things.

Venture-back startups require venture capital, and investors are often not too keen on investing in complex, traditional, capex heavy industries, ones that are prone to geopolitical and operational risks.

Geopolitics is Not Only a Risk

There’s a tendency to look at geopolitics as a risk factor. We often ask if an industry is prone to geopolitical disruptions (be them economic, military or social). But Geopolitics is not only a risk, but can also revitalize or reshape an industry. For example, geopolitical realignment, heightened great power competition and resurgence of conflicts (primarily in Ukraine) led to a surge in defense expenditures, which led to a wave of investments in new defense startups1.

By the same token, I believe that the Export Controls levied by China in October 2025 on rare earths was a watershed moment that is sending ripples through time, while catalyzing new market dynamics.

I believe this watershed moment will be met by a world eaten by software, AI agents and robots. They will eat critical minerals with the same enthusiasm with which they devour any other industry. To be clear, software will not eat minerals, but the supply chains they rely on, from mining operations to refining. There are already companies leveraging AI for exploration.

Yes, critical minerals innovation is engulfed by difficulties, roadblocks and market failures. There are reasons why traditionally there was scant interest in innovation in minerals. Tech was mostly not interested.

But, the shockwaves of October 2025 will change that, thanks to the renewed focus and global interest in the geopolitical moment we’re in, one where China is the defacto mineral czar of the world.

The logic is pretty simple:

• The renewed interested yields, and will continue to yield, market-making moves by the US and the West, which will mean national-scale budgets funneled to recreating mineral supply chains.

• Meaningful capital flows, increased demand for minerals and enhanced demand for better ways of doing things will create a market opportunity at a scale meaningful to attract venture investors, looking to enter new industries.

• Venture investors will start signaling to innovators that there is a meaningful opportunity. They will do so with conferences, events, annual letters, incubation programs and, well, podcasts.

• Entrepreneurs will take the hint and will move to apply general-purpose technologies and specialized innovations to critical minerals

• A feedback loop will be created, and the ecosystem will form

We’ve seen this happen before: ClimateTech venture funding surged after the IRA signaled hundreds of billions in sustained policy support. DefenseTech saw the same pattern when Ukraine demonstrated the ROI of autonomous systems and Washington opened the checkbook.

Massive government spending creates conviction that the market is real, which gives VCs permission to deploy capital into categories they previously ignored.

Granted, Critical Minerals are not Defense. But they are similar enough for us to pay attention.

Both face long development cycles, have national security framing that justifies non-market pricing, and concentrated customer bases where government demand can overcome early-stage financing gaps.

Defense startups’ product market fit received a boost from Pentagon purchasing. Critical mineral startups face the same dynamic: if Vault and similar initiatives signal sustained government procurement, the risk calculus shifts quickly.

Arrival of Tech

Tech hasn’t “arrived” yet for critical minerals.

You can feel the vibe shift when tech "arrives". You can't miss it: Conferences, podcasts, meetups, linkedin posts. You know when tech arrives when you almost wish it didn't.

That didn’t happen yet, but I have a feeling that at some point we will start seeing things like this:

Jumping into the Vault

To get a sense of what kind of market-making initiatives are coming for Critical Minerals and what they might mean for startups, Vault is an instructive example.

Vault, like the name suggests, is a stockpile of critical minerals that was announced by the Trump Administration:

Vault is a stockpile. Like its name suggests, it is meant to buy minerals deemed by the US as critical2 for a rainy day. Judging by the happenings of October 2025, that rainy day just might show up sooner rather than later.

How does Vault work? Well, Vault isn’t an actual vault. It would be funny if it was, thought. At any rate, it is a $12B public-private partnership that is intended to buy and store minerals and provide access on pre-agreed prices.

The brunt of the financing comes from the US Export-Import Bank (~$10B), with the rest ponied up by corporate backers like GE Vernova and Boeing, as well as private investors. Participants can draw minerals when a major disruption occurs at a pre-agreed price.

Yes, it’s kind of like a Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but for minerals. Yes, I wish it looked something like this:

Why Do We Need Vault? Well, because of China. This reserve is supposed to curb China’s dominance by allowing participants with a buffer in face of exogenic shocks. What those shocks could be? Aside from plagues, export controls come to mind.

Vault, at least in theory, will allow participating companies (all from Allied countries) to gain access if China decides to pull the plug.

Is Vault perfect? I mean, who/what is?

$12B won't rebuild entire supply chains that China spent decades dominating. But that misses the point. Vault isn't trying to replace Chinese capacity overnight; it's creating proof that Western buyers will pay for non-Chinese supply at scale. As explained by a recent CSIS analysis:

Participating manufacturers do not receive access for free. Instead, they make long-term commitments to the program and pay a commitment fee in exchange for access to specified materials during market disruptions.

That credible demand signal is what unlocks private capital. Think of it as a down payment that makes the rest of the fundraising possible, not the full purchase price.

There are even more uncertainties and many open questions (here are a few of the important ones). In general, stockpiles are a great tool to buffer from disruption, but will not likely reduce dependency on China, which currently refines upwards of 90% of critical minerals and rare earths.

Vault’s consequence for startups and innovation is monumental.

What does Vault mean for Startups?

Startups fuse together entrepreneurial fervor and intensity, new technological solutions to old problems and lots of cash. To grow, they need plenty of things, but it boils down to clients and money.

As we’ve explored above, the key issue is that majority of venture investors have an aversion to risky, uncertain markets that are exposed to geopolitical risks at the magnitude of, well, China. China’s dominance, along with how would-be customers behave means that critical minerals, from mining to refining to integration, is mostly considered not worth the risk.

Institutional investors often have the opposite problem: They won’t shoulder the tech risk that is the bread and butter of startups.

Vault has the potential to change this.

In short, Vault provides startups with:

• Offtakes and price stability

• Streamlined go-to-market channels

• Market Signal (“this is real”)

• Pickaxes and Shovel Opportunities

We’ll take a look at each one separately, but also recognize the uncertainties.

Offtakes

What’s this: Offtake agreements are where a stockpile like Vault becomes a lifeline rather than a headline. If a startup knows it can sell a defined slice of future output at an agreed price into a government‑backed buyer, it suddenly has something concrete to show a bank or a fund instead of a pretty slide about “total addressable market.”

It doesn’t mean the startup gets to walk away scot-free, but investors usually look at offtakes as bankable revenue that can anchor project finance and bridge the terrifying gap between FOAK and scale.

Streamlined go-to-market channels

Most young companies in mining, refining, or materials learn the hard way that their problem is not just chemistry or geology, it is go‑to‑market. Industrial buyers are fragmented, conservative, and slow, each with its own specs and legal boilerplate, so sales cycles are measured in years, not quarters.

By aggregating demand from large players and standardizing some of the terms, Vault can act as a pre‑configured channel: if you qualify once, you effectively plug into a pool of customers instead of courting each one from scratch.

Market Signal (“this is real”)

For investors, the existence of Vault is as much a political signal as it is a procurement mechanism. When the U.S. government lines up $12B, export‑credit backing, and marquee corporates around critical minerals, it tells LPs and strategics this is not a passing fad that dies with the next headline cycle.

That does not guarantee any given startup a ticket, but it lowers the “policy rug‑pull” risk that has haunted the space and makes it easier for funds to underwrite multi‑cycle theses in mining, refining, and upstream materials.

In ClimateTech, the Inflation Reduction Act helped accelerate the development and commercialization of batteries, green steel and even solar and wind and brought much energy into venture investments.

Pickaxes and Shovels Opportunities

Finally, a stockpile on this scale creates an entire layer of “pickaxes and shovels” where founders never have to touch ore themselves. Someone has to build the logistics software, inventory management, quality tracking, cybersecurity, and recycling systems that keep a distributed reserve of sensitive materials secure and efficient.

These innovations tend to show up after major crises take place or in the wake of major technology disruptions. We’ve seen this playout with Cybersecurity, which has expanded from “pure play” into particular industries: First it was OT security; then, it was healthcare, and now we are starting to see verticalized cyber solutions for utilities.

What makes this different from selling software to existing mining companies? Scale and coordination. A distributed stockpile across allied nations requires cross-border tracking, real-time quality assurance between dozens of facilities, and provenance verification that no single mining operation has ever needed. That complexity creates greenfield opportunities where incumbents don't have entrenched solutions and startups can set the standard.

Taking Stock(pile)

Vault provides 4 distinct advantages to startups, Granted, there are uncertainties with each one: Offtakes still need to be better defined; market signals takes time; venture might be slow to respond; and not all verticalized offerings find a real market. We’ll have to see how they develop over time.

However, the bigger picture is more important, especially since Vault is not the end-all-be-all move. We can expect more market-making moves and initiatives that will be announced in coming months and years. Each one of the moves doesn’t have to be perfect, but rather help catalyze the market.

The US is not alone in this. We can expect Europe, Canada, Japan and other countries to announce their own initiatives, stockpiles or otherwise. They might appear in country-by-country form or in a Middle Powers amalgamation.

They can come in the form of more stockpiles, Buyers’ Clubs, Government Incentives or even regulatory requirements. Like with DefenseTech or ClimateTech, it is likely that the massive shifts that are taking place “thanks” to October 2025, the AI-ification of everything and geopolitical realignment more broadly will lead to more venture investments.

We should hope so.

I’m already looking for the Linkedin posts.

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TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial takes place with over 50 countries (but China wasn’t invited… maybe that was the point)

• India’s 2026 budget holds big promises for decarbonization and the green transition (I’m waiting for a Bollywood movie about solar panels)

The Smaller Things

• Data centers are at odds with Trump voters (we’ll see what happens)

• Saudi Arabia and Turkey demonstrate solar diplomacy (peace in the middle east… through solar panels?)

In Other News: Lots of stuff

The Talk of the Town

• Critical minerals, government equity investments 101, history of mineral stockpiles and so much more

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Critical Minerals FORGE Ahead

What Happened? Over 50 countries attended the US’s 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial, which is the mineral version of Woodstock or something. During the event, the US announced “Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement” (FORGE), which serves as a trade bloc with preferential terms that will help coordinate projects and policy.

The US government also announced project Vault, a $12B critical mineral stockpile and signed a flurry of bilateral deals, MoUs and frameworks with Mexico, EU, UK and others.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a culmination of the US’s attempt to break free from China’s stranglehold over critical minerals and rare earths, a dependence that is still growing. These moves stirred overall positive responses, though not without critique.

My Take: ✍️ Called it! I published a piece on the US strategy, where I claimed that multilateralism (or plurilateralism) is one of the Administrations key strategic levers. This week, they definitely upped the ante on this one:

India’s New Budget and Renewables

What Happened? India released its annual budget last week. The budget is complex and signals the direction which India is going to, which is rapid industrialization, focus on advanced defense and tech capabilities, and more (I thank Dr. Lauren Dagan Amos for her insights on the budget).

Interestingly, the budget includes massive investments in Carbon Capture, Nuclear Energy infrastructure, renewables, adaptation and critical minerals and rare earths.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because India’s push for rapid industrialization and growth includes pivotal moves towards decarbonization, energy independence through renewables and catch up on critical minerals. This budget meets India’s ambitions to be a global power, but one that leapfrogs fossil-fuel growth.

My Take: ✍️ We are going to hear a lot about India’s push towards decarbonization and mineral independence. I think India is going to be a big part of the 2026 geopolitical and energy map.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Data Center Wars: Trump Voters Don’t Like Them

What Happened: As Hyperscalers issue guidance this week on record AI infrastructure investments, a recent HeatmapNews article shows how unpopular data centers are among… Trump voters, primarily in rural areas. This sentiment joins general unpopularity of DCs

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the unprecedented support given by the Trump Administration to Data Center development is starting to seem like it is diametrically opposed to the preferences of the MAGA base, which can cause a rift between Republicans and their voters ahead of the Midterms Elections.

My Take: ✍️Well, what can I say. As the President likes to say: We’ll see what happens.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey Signed a Solar Deal

What Happened: Saudi Arabia agreed to invest $2B to build solar power plants in Turkey, as part of a bigger deal between the two countries to scale renewable energy to the tune of 2GW of solar, and then later additional 3GW of wind. This agreement will include 50% localization rate, which will help boost local Turkish industry.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a good example of the global push towards renewables AND is a sign of how the Middle East is reconfiguring at the geopolitical level. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are starting to collaborate more, and energy is one key channel to realignment.

My Take: ✍️ We are likely to see more of these announcements, and I will not be surprised if we see Saudi Arabia playing the role of renewable developer writ-large in the Middle East, and perhaps in other regions, as the Saudi Kingdom attempts to diversify its economy and project soft power in the region.

In Other News:

📰 Virginia Lawmakers want to un-restrict solar farms (good luck in the midterms!)

📰 China is not happy about the EU’s probe over Wind subsidies (no one ever liked a probe I guess)

📰 Speaking of China, 90% of its investment growth is attributable to renewables (yeah I have nothing witty to say here)

📰 Taiwan is likely to push timeline to meet Green Energy goals (don’t they have bigger fish to fry?)

📰 Some comments against a solar farm in Ohio are fake (I guess we trained Moltbook to be anti-solar?)

📰 EU renewable push is at risk thanks to critical mineral shortages (look surprised!)

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

🖇️ Alexandra Middleton share many insights: Published a paper on Greenland’s Rare Earths and provided a recap of the Arctic Frontiers conference. I’d love to go next year!

✍️ shared a historical perspective on stockpiles, in light of the launch of Vault.

✍️ masterfully unpacked how SMR startups work

🖇️ Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes showed how Project Vault makes critical minerals financeable by rewiring U.S. market structure.

✍️ hosted Dr. Sarah Kapnick about how climate change is speeding up, models are getting sharper, and rising risks now touch everything from daily weather to money decisions

✍️ explored how government equity investing is emerging as a pivotal new policy tool rather than a niche financial experiment

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Hi there folks!

So, I’m finally really back from vacation. I spent the last couple of weeks in India, combining work and some travel with my lovely wife.

India was amazing, mesmerizing and inspiring. I saw the depths of the transformation India is undergoing, and I plan on writing more about this topic in a new series I’m working on with a dear friend who is actually an expert on the topic.

At any rate, here are some pictures for you while you’re waiting:

While I was away, a lot of things happened: Trump threatened to take over Greenland and kind-of did a U-Turn; Davos 2026 spewed more important speeches than one can digest; China and Canada signed an EV deal; and extreme weather kept on pounding across the globe (except for India that is).

My obvious takeaway from this is never to go on vacation again. Or at least give you a warning.

But until I go again, here’s the roundup!

~ Arod

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• The Greenland Saga looks like it’s over, but people are still nervous (even the Penguins who are in Antarctica)

• EU & India sign the mother of all deals (Trump doesn’t have a monopoly over bravado)

The Smaller Things

• Rare Earths are still a big deal (I picked the right field to pretend I understand)

• Data centers get a PR makeover, but still get pummeled in rural America (good time to suggest my vacant lot?)

In Other News: Lots of stuff

The Talk of the Town

• Clawd, China’s AI Ecosystem, CoreWeave and more!

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

The Greenland Saga Only Looks Like its Over

What Happened? After weeks of heightened tensions over Greenland between US and…Denmark (I can’t believe it’s a thing), Trump has finally announced a deal that would avoid a confrontation. Still, looks like everyone involved is still very nervous: Denmark’s king announced a visit to Greenland, while European powers are meeting with Denmark in preparation for negotiations.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because it’s not over until it’s over. Sure, there’s a path to a diplomatic resolution, but it seems like everyone is still pretty shaken by the whole ordeal, causing both European powers and the US to tread lightly.

My Take: ✍️ The Greenland story is far from over, and I suspect we will see more tensions around the island. It’s impossible to overstate how much rests on a good resolution of the topic, and we all know that Trump is anything but predictable.

EU & India Sign Mother of All Deals

What Happened? European Union and India signed the “mother of all deals”, a comprehensive agreement between the two powers that cuts the majority of tariffs on goods between the two, doubles exports by 2032 and create additional investment opportunities. Definitely a happy day for Kaja Kallas and Ursula von der Leyen.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because India and the EU are heeding Mark Carney’s call and effectively creating their own little club. But since they represent 25% of global GDP, it’s quite an effing club. This deal helps both sides reduce reliance on the US.

There’s also a decarbonization angle here: India will be subject to CBAM, but the EU will help India deal with it by investing 500M EUR to help India curb down emissions.

My Take: ✍️ I’ve written plenty about Europe’s dilemmas, and it seems like instead of relying on China more (it still kind of does), the EU is seeking a partnership with India to strengthen its economy. What a move!

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Rare Earths Continue to Rock the Boat

What Happened: The Rare Earth market is still boiling hot: First, the Trump Administration is signaling future priorities on critical minerals and Rare Earths, with a shift away from price floors (the likes given to MP Materials) and a DOE realignment toward processing, capacity building and innovation.

At the same time, the Administration invested $1.5B in USA Rare Earth, a company that controls Heavy Rare Earths deposits, which are critical for defense applications.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this might seem like small developments, but they are a part of a broader strategy employed by the US to build capacity and break free from China’s capabilities:

My Take: ✍️ While I’m not sure about moving away from price floors is a great idea (and ultimately, it is mostly motivated by lack of support from Congress), these moves address the right weaknesses in Western mineral capabilities.

I’m super excited about what is happening in this market, and it looks like the market is as well in general (not investment advice of course).

Hyperscalers Try to Rebrand Data Centers, but They Keep Dying in the US

What Happened: Data Centers evoke strong emotions on both sides of the Data Center Wars. They are also not very popular in the US. Meta is trying to change that with a $6M investment in ads and campaigns to rebrand data centers and extol their benefits to society (jobs, energy and the likes).

Meanwhile, as Heatmap News reports weekly, data centers keep on being rejected by communities across the US, including in Wisconsin and Georgia.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Data Center Wars are far from being over. They are only getting started, as both proponents and opponents of Data Centers keep trying to score points on the board.

My Take: ✍️ I still think operators and hyperscalers are going about this the wrong way. Want to build? Engage communities, be transparent, work with local officials. Buying ads is not going to cut it this time.

In Other News:

📰 10 countries have ganged up to build up to 100GW of wind power in the North Sea, while Trump walks back on Wind ban (oh hey that worked out well)

📰 EVs are having a killer week, as they outsold petrol cars in the EU for the first time, and are constantly expanding in the US under Trump, a new study shows (so… should I buy one or not?!)

📰 Michigan brought a new type of lawsuit against oil companies: Antitrust! 👉(should I coordinate a response?)

📰 South Africa experienced floods that were made worse by La Nina and Climate Change

📰 Ski Resorts are now using drones to help with plowing snow, while winter sports are trying to adapt to climate change. (New winter sports: Running away from climate change)

📰 China solar companies warn of a major demand slump (I’d love to help demand but ain’t got no money)

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ released her book, the Mining Imperative and shared her personal story. I’m a big fan of Amanda’s work and highly recommend it!

✍️ caught the Moltbot frenzy a minute before it went hot - kudos!

✍️ showed how Minister Anand’s Arctic speech framed Russia as the primary threat while skirting hard choices on NATO, NORAD, and northern nation‑building in the Arctic.

✍️ showed why CoreWeave matters less as a depreciation story and more as indispensable AI war infrastructure.

✍️ explored how China’s generative AI ecosystem is fueled by the private sector

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TL;DR:

President Donald Trump was busy while I was on vacation: Threats to annex Greenland (and then making a U-turn), establishing the Board of Peace, forcing PJM to auction record amounts of tenders and many more things.

My takeaway is, of course, never to go on vacation.

Still, it looks like the show at Davos was stolen by none other than Mark Carney:

Mark Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum (Davos) took the Twittersphere by storm. Within minutes, a flurry of takes flooded the internet, followed by a SubStorm of analyses. I can’t blame them - by all respects, Carney’s speech was eloquent, refreshing and powerful.

Most commentators from all ends of the spectrum mostly focused on his announcement that the rules-based order is gone. For example:

I think that most of the commentary focused on the wrong part (or, the less interesting one).

The more interesting part, in my view, is Carney’s prescription to what comes next, after we’ve passed the rules-based international order. Spoken like a true Canadian, instead of spewing fire, Carney politely offers Middle Powers a way forward that isn’t a binary choice between US and China.

Carney’s speech is packed with issues to unpack - from the rupture to liberal values and cooperation in a fragmented world and I do not intend on covering everything. Instead, I will focus on Carney’s recommendations for Middle Powers and what they can do to keep their autonomy, while not paying too high of a price.

Buyers Club in a Fragmented World

The prescriptive part of Carney’s speech is as simple as it is refreshing:

In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice: to compete with each other for favour, or to combine to create a third path with impact. We shouldn’t allow the rise of hard power to blind us to the fact that the power of legitimacy, integrity and rules will remain strong if we choose to wield it together.

…

Collective investments in resilience are cheaper than everyone building their own fortresses. Shared standards reduce fragmentations. Complementarities are positive sum. And the question for middle powers like Canada is not whether to adapt to the new reality – we must. The question is whether we adapt by simply building higher walls, or whether we can do something more ambitious.

In other words, Carney suggests that instead of building fortresses in a fragmented and lawless world, they should form flexible and topical associations to fix specific issues.

Instead of signing grandiose proclamations and complex global treaties, “middle powers” should look to formulate more focused arrangements that can solve problems, while aggregating supply, demand or bargaining power.

The important question is - how?

Carney’s answer: Join a club.1

Join the Club

International clubs were always around, we just didn’t give them much attention. They are useful instruments to deal with specific issues that matter to a group of countries, or where specific coordination is required.

What all clubs have in common is that they are:

• Closed to a set group of like-minded countries2

• Enable coordination on a specific topic

• Enable collective bargaining power and aggregation of supply or demand

• Great for your skin

Examples of clubs in the international arena abound: OPEC, G7/20, Pax Silica and the EU are types of clubs. Even the Arctic Council is a form of a club.

Not all clubs are the same. While there are probably more than three types of clubs, we can think of three primary types that countries like to use:

• Demand Aggregators: Clubs that are used primarily to buy in bulk and provide better terms for their members. This is a similar dynamic to what happens in the private market. For example, G7’s Critical Minerals buyers’ club.

• Price-Setting/Producers: Clubs by countries that produce something, using their status to coordinate prices and prevent a race to the bottom or price competition. The most notable example is OPEC, of course.

• Governance: Clubs that exist to create standards, regulatory regimes or create joint governance frameworks on a topic of collective importance. For example, the Arctic Council or the EU (at least in some respects)

In practice, each one of these clubs uses different mechanisms to achieve a goal. Mostly, it is to either promote a topic (say, decarbonization) or secure an advantage for its members (say, better prices).

For example, Demand Aggregators can provide favorable terms to suppliers or guarantee sufficient volume worth their while. In energy, club members can guarantee project developers sufficient offtake agreements3 from enough actors to make a project both economically viable and bankable.

Governance clubs can set standards for an industry or for behavior. The Arctic Council rules by consensus, setting a standard that countries cannot make unilateral decisions about the region and should work in unison with other Arctic nations:

Clubs In the New World Order

Clubs have existed for a long time and have served countries for multiple purposes. In a world that is governed by the rules-based order we all know and love, the formation of clubs is not seen as a breakaway from the mega-club that is the world order, but rather a club-within-a-club (like a nesting doll).

Now that this order is breaking down (at least, that is what everyone is saying, so it must be true), the general tendency is for each country to align itself with a hegemon (US/Russia/China and maybe even India).

In this kind of world order, it is assumed that smaller countries have to abide by the will of the hegemon. It’s the geopolitical version of My Way or the Highway.

Clubs, in essence, can help create an alternative for middle powers, like Canada:

But I’d also say that great powers, great powers can afford for now to go it alone. They have the market size, the military capacity and the leverage to dictate terms. Middle powers do not.

But when we only negotiate bilaterally with a hegemon, we negotiate from weakness. We accept what’s offered. We compete with each other to be the most accommodating.

Carney’s approach is particularly refreshing, compared to majority of accounts that spell the rise of Great Power Rivalry. Carney’s approach:

• Provides us with a third way (spheres of influences vs. lawlessness and global anarchy)

• Creates a more modular and nuanced world order, one that is ruled by power, but is offset by ad-hoc coalitions that come together based on shared interests and values

• Gives analysts more stuff to write about

Middle powers are the primary beneficiaries from Carney’s speech. They are the ones who will use clubs to fulfil their goals and gain benefits, while creating alternatives that can be leveraged in dialogue with their hegemon. Canada, for instance, can use clubs to gain enough leverage to meaningfully negotiate with the US and therefore maintaining their sovereignty and autonomy.

The interesting aspect of Carney’s approach is that while clubs seem like a collaborative effort, in Carney’s approach it is meant to provide members with strategic autonomy, while maintaining values and liberties. In fact, Carney’s call for a more collaborative world rests on the assumption that going at it alone makes no sense from the individual perspective of middle powers. They simply cannot go it alone, in his words.

Now, let’s look at two particular examples: Energy and Critical Minerals.

Renewable Energy

Carney briefly mentioned Energy as an area for middle power collaboration.

While his track record with clean energy is far from perfect to say the least, Carney can create a buyers club that will aggregate demand and provide significant offtake agreements to renewable developers.

In practice, this club would issue joint tenders for wind, solar, storage or nuclear, provide incentives to developers and provide long-term contracts to suppliers in larger volumes than any one country can sustain. In exchange for the bankability and proven demand developers need to keep investing, club members can gain better prices and more leverage over how their counterparts behave.

Canada can also choose to take the governance path and work with other Middle Powers to set standards for Carbon Credits, Methane or other topics of collective interest that require coordination to achieve progress.

An energy buyers’ club would improve the strategic autonomy of its members by setting up more durable avenues to procure energy at more favorable prices, and would also prevent reliance on powers like Russia, US or China.

On renewables, Canada is stuck between a rock and a hard place: Washington is leaning on allies to keep fossil fuels in the mix, while Beijing’s massively subsidised clean‑tech machine now supplies over 80% of the world’s solar hardware and can undercut Western panels by half.

A buyers’ club would give Canada and its peers a third option: Jointly commit to volumes of clean power and equipment from a more diversified set of suppliers, and use that pooled demand to negotiate standards and prices that don’t leave them dependent on either camp.

Critical Minerals

Critical minerals are everyone’s favorite topic.

Carney referred in his speech to the G7’s Buyers Club on critical minerals, led by Canada. This club is meant to guarantee demand, set price floors, and co-invest in projects to counter China's dominance. Already, Canada committed to a $6.4B CAD, G7-backed package for 26 critical minerals projects and long-term purchase commitments and price floors.

This Buyers’ Club is somewhat similar to the US Mineral Strategy I covered just a month and a half ago:

China’s dominance of rare earth elements and many of the important critical minerals allows it to manipulate prices, flood the market and destroy competition. China also has an advantage in its ability to integrate minerals into final products thanks to its developed production ecosystems (e.g., rare earth complexes in Baotou, China).

In contrast, the majority of countries cannot afford to guarantee price floors in volumes that would move the needle or establish processing facilities at a scale that can allow them to break free from China’s hold on minerals.

In fact, the similarity between the US strategy and the G7 Club proves Carney’s point: Great Powers can do it alone; Middle Powers need clubs.

What would a Buyers’ Club give Canada? It would enable member countries to develop their own collective ecosystems, ensure that their industries can withstand price manipulation through price floors and incentivize new facilities. In other words, it can help a collection of companies adopt strategies that so far have been reserved for Great Powers.

Think of a Canadian nickel mine and refinery that only gets financed because a group of G7 governments guarantees a long‑term floor price for a big chunk of its output.

Another example could be club financing of processing hubs in friendly jurisdictions. For example, G7 governments can take a minority stake in processing plants or finance the establishment of a new one, so the ore doesn’t have to sail to Baotou to become useful. This is not too different from what the US is doing on its own over the past few months.

Clubs and Their Discontents

Carney’s approach is refreshing and powerful, but not without its faults.

Clubs have significant drawbacks and plenty can still go wrong:

• Clubs can backfire: Pissing off hegemons is a tricky business; using clubs to hedge and build alternatives can easily trigger retaliation from the hegemon near you, whether through trade measures, regulatory pressure or security “reassessments.”

  

• Clubs can still not be enough: In practice, it is brutally hard to diversify away from hegemons; even a G7‑scale buyers’ club is unlikely, on its own, to break China’s grip on critical‑mineral processing or rare earth separation anytime soon.

• Clubs are hard to operate: Setting standards and providing offtakes sounds great on paper, but it demands tight coordination, long‑term political alignment and a lot of boring implementation work; over time, operations are likely to matter more than ideals, values or even stated interests.

• Clubs can create bad power dynamics: Clubs are not democracies, even when their members are; power imbalances, agenda‑setting by the biggest players and winner‑takes‑most dynamics can turn a “middle‑power tool” back into just another hierarchy with better branding.

Looking Ahead

Carney’s vision of the future is not without its faults. There’s plenty to critique, from arguing against his view to blaming him of being a part of the reason we got here.

Still, Carney offers a real way that sidesteps the usual dilemma: US or China. Choose this or that.

I’ve mostly left out the values piece of his speech. I still think liberal norms are crucial for a prosperous, safe world, and clubs don’t magically guarantee them. There are illiberal clubs like BRICS, and Canada’s own deal with China is part of what set off the Twitter storm around Carney in the first place.

Even so, I still believe Carney offers a real way forward to maintain a form of the current world order, with clubs being a helpful instrument to keep some semblance of stability.

The Club approach can also provide some operational benefits compared to the complexity of multilateralism. Clubs, then, offer us a real way forward to better manage a post rules-based-order world.

Let’s hope he’s right.

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Happy New Year!

This is the first roundup of 2026, and I’m full of excitement about what’s ahead. This year, hopefully, I’ll expand my coverage and bring you a broader spectrum of hidden signals, changes and developments, and more deeper‑dive, analysis‑driven essays.

Yes, the tacky humor will likely remain. No, you cannot file a complaint.

And while we’re at it, if you haven’t had a chance to catch my 2025 end-of-year recap, here’s me reminding you that you can read it here:

Some notes:

• I admit this roundup is lighter than usual due to the holidays, but I can’t wait for all the happenings of the coming year.

• The roundup will appear next week like usual, but after then I will be off for two weeks. But fear not, I will be working on a collection of essays on a few topics that are on my mind of late: India, Data Centers, US-CN relations, Rare Earths and Insurance.

Hope you enjoy this edition of the roundup, and here’s to a great 2026!

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• India added 44.5 GW in renewable capacity in 2025 (pack your bags we’re going to Delhi)

• China’s MOFCOM calls EU’s CBAM tightening unfair (trade meets kindergarten)

The Smaller Things

• Japan wants rare earths and is willing to mine the seabed (DSM is now big in Japan)

• Dan Wang’s Annual Letter (I think I have a new hero)

The Talk of the Town

• The Mineral Imperative, Startups are Media Companies, Export Controls and Stablecoins (and much more)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

India Reported Adding 44.5GW of Renewables in 2025

What Happened? India has just announced that it has added 44.5GW of renewable energy, with the majority of capacity coming from Solar, and some from Wind. This announcement comes a few months after India’s announcement that it has managed to power 50% of its total electricity from renewable sources and is linked to India’s goal of achieving 500GW in renewable capacity by 2030.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a part of India’s wider ambitions for growth and hegemony. While India has not reached China’s scale, it is quickly following suit and using renewables to power its growing economy at lower costs, gain energy security and build a domestic solar industry.

My Take: ✍️ India is the next big thing in renewable energy, and will likely help keeping the energy transition going as China reports slowdown for the first time in lord knows how long.

China’s MOFCOM Complains about EU’s CBAM

What Happened? Two weeks ago I reported on the EU’s intention to strengthen its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and close some loopholes:

Well, China is not too happy about it. China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) has called this step “unfair” and and has threatened to take ‘appropriate measures’ in response. Yeah, they are not too happy about this, I guess.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is the last thing Europe needs, a tariff war with China. China is a major EU trading partner and a superpower in the making. It’s unclear whether the EU can withstand a trade war with China. China does not shy away from weaponizing chokepoints. Again, lord knows there is no shortage of those.

My Take: ✍️ Europe’s dilemma on China has just become very real: Strengthen climate or risk angering China. We’ll have to see what is Europe’s next step, and whether Beijing will retaliate or it’s just blowing off steam.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Japan is Testing Out New Deep-Sea Mining Method

What Happened: Japan decided to test a new method for mining rare earths from the bottom of the sea. In this new pilot, a vessel will continuously lift mud rich in rare earths from 6,000 meters depth and ship it for assessment. If the pilot is successful, this will become a permanent thing.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a part of the Mineral Cold War, and Japan is trying something entirely different than most of its Western allies. Deep Sea Mining is a controversial method of extracting minerals and other resources, with significant environmental concerns. Japan does not seem deterred, effectively being one of the only countries in the world actively pursuing rare earth mud mining.

My Take: ✍️ The race is on, and Japan seems to be in a pinch to supply its own rare earths. With tensions rising high between Tokyo and Beijing, Japan understands that it must decouple from China as much as it can.

Easy Christmas? No Way

What Happened: On Christmas Eve, Russia decided it was cool to send a TU-95 strategic bomber to the Norwegian sea. The bomber had no missiles on board, but its location begs the question - why? Obviously, because Russia can.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is example #50004048 of increased Russian aggression towards the Nordic countries.

My Take: ✍️ Sure, why not. It was a slow news week anyway, so why not provoke someone.

Dan Wang’s Annual Letter

What Happened: Ok, not exactly a happening per se, but published his annual letter, and it is a masterpiece of writing and analysis. In it, Wang provides an updated take on the US-China competition and provides his take on what both sides get right and get wrong (at least, that’s how I read it). Wang covers a wide range of topics: from magical thinking and the wonders of Silicon Valley to Chinese competition.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Wang’s voice represents a growing thread of thinking on US-China relations and his thoughts represent both a growing consensus of how the US should compete, but also an accurate view on the differences between the two countries.

My Take: ✍️ I admit I have not read Breakneck just yet, but it’s definitely on my to do!

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ shared details about her forthcoming book, the Mineral Imperative. Can’t wait to read it!

✍️ taught us all about stablecoins in the best possible way: with memes!

✍️ published part II of his overview of the business of Geopolitics, helping us see how geopolitics as a trade is evolving in the AI era.

✍️ wrote a great piece about how startups act today as media companies - which got me thinking - can climate startups do the same?

✍️ claims that export controls are working and hurting China. We’ve seen them hurt the US on rare earths, so overall agree.

✍️ shared an overview of the Northern Sea Route, a topic I care deeply about

✍️ and shared Miller’s take on the importance of manufacturing. Personally, I thought it was a great take that helps spell much clarity on the topic

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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Happy 2026!

Let’s face it: Rare Earths have a PR problem.

They are too anonymous, too unknown given their incredible importance to the functioning of modern society. They are also tangled in one of the biggest geopolitical bouts of the 21st century: the great US-China trade war.

I’m no expert on rare earths, but I think that they ought to get more than the 15 minutes of glory they received back in October 2025.

So I did what any sane person would do in my position: I vibe-coded them into existence as fun collectibles.

Visit the Rare Earthicons Project!

Who are the Rare Earthicons

They are a bunch of 17 cheeky elements that often get into trouble, while still keeping our economy going.

Each Earthicon has their unique personality, their unique story and unique usecases. Like the elements themselves, they can be found nearly everywhere: in the cars we drive, the planes we fly, the iPhones we use to scroll while we’re bored.

I have created 17 of them, one for each Earthicons.

I’ve created the Earthicons to show how much free time I have on weekends as a way to make rare earths more accessible, fun and relatable, to help illustrate just how important they are.

Is this a joke? A bit, but just enough to make you want to (hopefully) learn more.

Rare Earths are serious business, and there is a lot of money and geopolitical capital involved. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have a bit of fun with them, right?

What can you do at the Rare Earthicons Project?

Great question. Quite a few things:

Learn the Basics

The Rare Earthicons is a place you can learn the basics of rare earths - where they come from, what they are and where they come from:

You can also explore the entire value-chain:

There’s also an interactive map and a compendium that will show you just how dependent we are on China for the basic things we use:

Take the Quiz

People love personality quizzes. People are addicted to them, dying to know:

• Which famous actor they are

• Which Cheese they are

• Which character from Sex and the City they are

Well, now you can know which Rare Earth you are!

Unwrap Your Year!

Songs? Pfffft.

Now you can tell which element made your year: Was it Cerium? Maybe Lanthanum? Or did you use Neodymium the most? Find out today!

Get Your Own Element

Since I’m on a roll, I decided to provide custom-made rare earthicons to new subscribers of A World Reconfigured!

If you’re interested in one, reach out to me and I’ll make you one!

Here are few I made for some unfortunate souls friends:

So,

hope you liked the Rare Earthicons project, and if you have other crazy ideas I can sink my teeth in, let me know!

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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2025 is pretty much over, and you know what that means: A recap.

There is a quote I often use to try and impress upon those unfortunate enough to catch me in the musing kind of mood:

2025 was definitely a year when decades happened, and I count myself fortunate to be able to track, think and write about all that transpired. It was also the year I started seriously writing A World Reconfigured.

In the spirit of recaps, here’s mine: Personal reflections, 2025 recap, 2026 predictions and some of my favorite recaps!

Personal Reflections: I Started a Thing

I started this blog to tell stories that took place at the epicenter of a global rewiring of political, economic and human systems.

The world we live in is incredibly complex and nuanced, and it is impossible to tell every story. A theory of everything is more often than not a theory of nothing. So, I made a choice to focus on Climate Change as the key driving force that’s at the center of my coverage.

This year has been incredible on a personal level: Writing gave me an outlet for my thoughts and ideas. I’ve always been a macro kind of person, but never had a platform I felt all too comfortable with. This year has changed it for me.

In more ways than one, I cannot seem not to do it. I am excited (and also a bit terrified) about what I see out there:

This blog also helped me reduce my AI anxiety. The constant tinkering, generating and experimenting with AI made me more confident about the coming future and my role in it.

I feel like this year I’ve found my voice, and I’m excited about continuing to shape it in 2026.

So, before we go any further, I want to thank every single of one of you for reading this newsletter and for putting up with my nonsense being a part of my journey. I hope to continue and grow this community in 2026!

Ok, let’s dive right in!

2025 Recap + 2026 Predictions

Throughout the year, we explored many different fronts: from the Arctic to the US to China. We covered geopolitics, policy, climate investments and technology.

It would be impossible to mention everything that took place, but here are some of they key developments this year that caught my eye, and are likely to keep us busy in 2026:

US Policy Does a-180

Perhaps the turning point of the year – and maybe of the decade’s second half – was Washington’s whiplash on climate and energy. The Trump Administration rewired US policy around “energy dominance” (less climate, more energy), moving with startling speed to gut Biden-era climate and clean‑energy programs and even older protections.

What we’ve seen this year is a complete overhaul of the executive branch and some of the legislative basis of climate policy, from the Dept. of Energy to the Environmental Protection Agency to NOAA to National Renewable Energy Lab. We have also seen aggressive action against solar and wind (wind was especially hit hard).

And yet, even the speed and scale of the Trump offensive against climate policy cannot reverse the expansion of renewables, both globally and in the US.

Record demand for energy made utilities, Hyperscalers and corporates take the “All of the above” approach extra seriously, inking many renewable deals. Some markets don’t care very much about the federal tune. For example, in Texas, solar and batteries generated record energy this summer.

To put it in Galileo’s words: E pur si muove (“yet it moves”)1

🔭In 2026, I don’t think anything will change on this front. If anything, the Trump Administration will continue to unravel climate policy and advance what it sees as Energy Dominance. At the same time, it’s likely that renewables will continue to expand, especially as demand for energy continues to grow against the backdrop of the AI boom.

The Arctic

In 2025, the Arctic continued to march towards becoming the new South China Sea.

As the region is heating faster than anywhere else on Earth, permafrost thaw and dramatic ice loss continue to open new sea lanes and invite talk of mining (though not everyone agrees). In response, Arctic nations and non-Arctic states are making moves to further their interests, causing a shift from cooperation to tense coopetition.

The growing tensions in the Arctic were central to my coverage this year (ok and in late 2024):

Here are a few highlights of the year:

The US openly eyed Greenland as a geostrategic asset, to the growing alarm of Denmark and pretty much everyone else:

Russia has signaled in more ways than one that it intends to focus on the Arctic in coming years, while continuing military buildup in the region (including building floating ice bases) and preparing for hybrid warfare over Svalbard

China kept its partnership with Russia alive and showed no sign of abandoning the Polar Silk Road concept:

NATO stepped up exercises and presence in the High North, largely in response to Russian and Chinese assertiveness.

Countries like Norway, Denmark and Finland updated their security doctrines to reflect the Arctic’s shift from quiet periphery to front‑line theater.

🔭 In 2026, I expect we will see more of the same: power will keep reconfiguring as states move to leverage their Arctic advantage, and actors like Russia will keep testing the edges with shadow fleets and gray‑zone tactics along newly thawed routes.

I suspect we will see a bit more Arctic maritime traffic, especially around the Northern Sea Route. On resources, not so fast: despite the hype, the Arctic’s brutal conditions mean most projects will remain aspirational for years, and that’s probably for the best.

Arctic governance will continue to function on the surface, but underneath it will continue to fray. As more countries join attempts to take advantage of the region, we will likely see more bilateralism and alternatives to the Arctic Council.

On that note, will we see more countries jumping on the Arctic bandwagon? India, South Africa, Indonesia and Argentina in the Arctic? Sure, why not!2

I guess 2026 will be another hot year for the Arctic.

Critical Minerals and Rare Earths

In October 2025, thanks to the escalating US-Chinese trade war, China decided to turn up the heat on Rare Earth Elements export controls to 11. This move helped launch 17 relatively obscure yet important elements into global stardom.

This was the moment when the Western world - nations, companies and even everyday people - woke up to witness the outcome of nearly 40 years of disciplined Chinese industrial policy and Western negligence, resulting in almost complete dependency on China for rare earths, which are critical for anything from wind turbines to F35s.

In short, China found where it hurts, and it pressed on and on and on.

This moment also launched a flurry of deals, announcements, frameworks and agreements meant to counter China’s dominance. It also led to an emergence of a new US strategy:

The US and its allies are trying to achieve mineral independence, and they are investing like there’s no tomorrow. If they won’t, there might not be one.

It was not all that great for China. Inadvertently, China showed its hand and caused many countries to speculate whether China was in fact the adult in the room. In its willingness to weaponize export controls, China stoked fears in the hearts of countries and drove them into the arms of the US.

🔭 In 2026, I think we will see the US and its allies continue to rebuild its supply chains and their ability to achieve mineral independence. 2025 was a wake-up call for many countries, and I suspect they will try to realize their ambitions in 2026.

The US and its allies will try to continue to build more refineries like they announced in Romania and Saudi Arabia, to create more bilateral and multilateral frameworks like Pax Silica, and more. I will also not be surprised if we see more tech investments in new processes and recycling.

China is not likely to sit still. The more Beijing feels it is at risk of losing its edge, the more it can reach for price manipulation, tighter export controls and other familiar levers – and use BRICS and Belt‑and‑Road forums to build counter‑coalitions to the US‑led camp.​

It’s going to be an interesting year for rare earths.

China’s Ascent

It’s nearly impossible to write anything about the global environment without talking about China. There are better experts than meto review the year China had,3 but I did want to say something about the great red dragon.

With the US busy dismantling the very climate architecture it helped design, China spent 2025 quietly stepping into the gap. On climate, Beijing leaned hard into the role of “responsible adult” – deepening cooperation with the EU and Canada and using every COP/ministerial photo‑op to signal that it intends to stick around. And yet, it’s not clear whether China is serious about moving from talk to walk.

At home, China’s gargantuan industrial machine kept adding renewable capacity: it blew past 1 TW of installed wind‑and‑solar capacity and pushed further toward becoming a de‑facto electrostate, electrifying transport and industry while rolling out the next generation of grids, storage and infrastructure. Those who visited (not me!) were impressed.

Speaking on renewables, China exported clean energy worldwide: From solar panels and inverters to turbines, batteries and grid gear, it dominated clean‑energy exports and effectively underwrote the cost structure of the global renewable buildout.

🔭 In 2026, China will stay at the center of any serious conversation about climate and energy, but the pace of new build may start to slow as economic and financial headwinds bite.

The question is not whether China remains important – it will – but whether it can keep scaling at 2024–25 speeds in a shakier domestic economy (I think it’s unlikely, but what do I know anyway… 🤷‍♂️)

Data Center Wars

Data centers were impossible to avoid in 2025. Everywhere you went, it seems like there’s someone screaming “data centers!!!!” at you. And with good reason. Sometimes it seems like it’s all anyone is talking about:

As build‑out exploded, so did the backlash: Concern over power prices, water use and mistrust of AI turned local communities against new projects, slowing or blocking sites across the US and popping up in Europe and elsewhere too.

In the US alone, a Data Center Watch report found that:

$64 billion in U.S. data center projects have been blocked or delayed by a growing wave of local, bipartisan opposition. What was once quiet infrastructure is now a national flashpoint — and communities are pushing back.

Of course, politicians were quick to join the fight, with key special elections being won on anti-data-center rhetoric and even a national moratorium suggested by one Bernie Sanders:

By year’s end, it was simply harder to get a data center approved in the US than almost anywhere else.

🔭In 2026, we will continue to see a version of the Data Center Wars, especially in national discourse.

That doesn’t mean that new data centers will not be built. I believe it’s more likely that at the local level, operators will learn to work with communities and adjust their plans to be at least somewhat compatible with community needs.

It’s likely that operators will become more sophisticated and effective with community outreach and dialogue. There’s just too much at stake for them not to take communities seriously.

Will communities learn to trust operators and developers? I guess we’ll see.

Europe’s Dilemmas and Climate Aspirations

I spent a lot of time following Europe’s climate cha-cha.

The year started off strong, with the European Commission making headlines with its ambitious 90% reduction target by 2040.

But with mounting political, geopolitical, economic and social pressures, Europe started dancing to a strange tune: one step forward, half a step backwards.

Since then, Brussels has managed to water down key policies like the combustion‑engine phase‑out, delay implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation and padded major texts with just enough ambiguity for future politicians to slip out of today’s promises, all while signing a suspicious number of feel‑good declarations.

Member states added their own chaos. From Sweden rolling back climate measures to countries balking at heat‑pump and air‑con rules, “Europe” looked less like a single climate project and more like 27 different domestic fights playing out under one banner.

Some of my coverage this year focused exactly on this:

At the same time, there were some good things. Norway, for example, did something great with Northern Lights:

In 2026, I think the EU will continue to walk a tightrope between climate ambitions and difficult realities, as it faces a growing set of dilemmas: Social unrest and the rise of the far right; A hostile US, an aggressive Russia and an assertive China waiting around the corner; Rising energy prices and industrial decay.

I’m sure Europe is serious about being the world’s climate leader. But the more pressing question is: can it?

We’ll find out as Europe dances 2026 away!

Looking Ahead to 2026

There are plenty more things I looked at this year, and many more topics that took part in the reconfiguration of our world. Most of them will likely persist in 2026, even if they might take new shapes.

Here are some things I will be paying close attention to (unless other things will keep me busy):

👉 India: A superpower in the making, India’s activities in the climate scene are still relatively minimal, but I suspect we will see more in 2026, as its renewable sector is growing and climate is a great arena for geopolitical flexing. I will be following Modi and his crew very, very closely.

👉 Insurance: 2025 was already a tumultuous year for insurance companies. Many, thanks to the growing intensity and frequency of climate disasters, are reducing coverage in riskier areas and others are exiting markets entirely. In 2026, we are likely to see more and more of them. I will be looking to see how the industry reconfigures and realigns to this new reality.

👉 Electrotech: The growing electrification of everything is giving rise to a new hard and soft tech stack. It would be interesting to see how the growing electrification of our daily lives and our industries will have significant impacts on supply chains, innovation and basically everything else. China will likely be a beneficiary of this as both an advanced Electrostate and an exporter of electrical equipment.

👉 ClimateTech and Industrial Rebuild: Even with headwinds and a Greenlash, climate tech moved from “tourism” to putting serious steel in the ground. As Europe, APAC and the US grope toward industrial policy 2.0, 2026 will offer plenty of chances for genuinely clean technologies to scale, or fail loudly trying.

Talk of the Town: The Recap Edition

End of Year is always a time full of recaps, so I collected my favorite ones:

✍️ provided her recap and predictions of the Mineral sector.

✍️ recapped climate investments

🖇️ CTVC’s 2025 unwrapped

✍️ covered the funniest and worst takes on AI this year

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

Subscribe now

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If you happened to receive this email from a friend, please consider subscribing. If you’re already a part of this community, I’d love it if you could recommend it to a friend.

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First thing's first - Happy Holidays to all of my friends and colleagues who are on their way to vacation! May you all have a great new year!

Now lets get to it!

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Bernie Sanders joins the Data Center Wars (I still think we need a lightsaber fight)

• Europe zig-zags on climate policy (do the Brussels dance: one step forward, half a step backwards)

The Smaller Things

• Putin builds a floating base in the Arctic (I guess an Igloo is out of the question?)

• Solar developers love sheep now (Solar & Sheep is now all the rage with Gen Alpha)

• Trump Media to merge with TAE Energy (the corporate version of YOLO)

The Talk of the Town

• Russia’s Mineral Empire, US-China Detente with Mike Froman, the role of Geopolitics in the corporate world and so much more!

Creator Shoutout

• Neural Foundry (Thoughtful, original and sometimes contrarian views on AI and Infra)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Jedi Master Sanders Joins the Data Center Wars

What Happened? Sheesh, the data center wars are not slowing down. Senator Bernie Sanders joined calls for a national moratorium on new data centers, setting off a storm of statements and quote-tweets on X. David Sacks was very vocal for once.

Meanwhile, FERC – the federal energy regulator – wants big data centers to plug directly into power plants, sidestepping regional grid operators like PJM.

Want more? the SPEED act, which will allow to skirt environmental reviews, passed through the House and went to the Senate, not without controversy over renewables.

Still not enough? Democrats are looking to investigate data centers over consumer prices. And, like every other week, more and more data centers find themselves at the crosshairs of local opposition.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because just when the US seems to need as many data centers as it can get to “beat” China (whatever that means), the backlash against them grows, and continues to escalate. There are no signs that this trend is likely to subside, and while it might be easier to build from a regulatory perspective, local opposition remains forceful and effective.

My Take: ✍️ I still think Lightsabers are the best way to sort this out, and seems like Master Bernie decided to pick up his Saber.

Europe Zigs and Zags on Climate

What Happened? Speaking of Europe, the NYT just published a scathing review of the continent’s marvelous zig‑zagging on climate policy (second only to one Mark Carney). The zig and zag continued this week: Europe moved to water down the 2035 combustion‑engine ban, while the EU simultaneously decided to strengthen the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism despite U.S. pressure.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is exactly how Europe’s grand climate dilemma plays out: One step forward, half a step backwards. I wrote about this here:

My Take: ✍️ I do not envy Brussels and the dilemmas the EU is juggling. Expect many more zigs and zags as the continent tries to navigate an increasingly hostile US, aggressive Russia, and assertive China. Europe will keep making selective concessions in the name of “competitiveness,” but this looks more like a wobble than a full‑on climate U‑turn.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Putin is Building a North Pole Base

What Happened: Man, Putin is really going all in on the Arctic. This week, the Russian President approved the Arthur Chilingarov Ice Base, a drifting ice camp established on the Arctic. It’s not the first Russian drifting ice, and Moscow has much experience with such… gimmicks?

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because whether or not this base is practical and meant for the long-haul or not, this is Moscow sending a clear message that it is an Arctic superpower. This move directly builds on Putin’s designation of 2027 as the year of Geography, a move I’ve previously covered:

My Take: ✍️ I know, I know, it sounds funny, but this move is yet another way for Moscow to strengthen its foothold over the Arctic. It might be a gimmick, but my sense is that Putin will find a way to use it to sow more instability in the region.

Solar & Sheep

What Happened: Solar and Sheep sounds like a new disturbing social phenomenon, but it’s actually a neat little climate‑era innovation. On solar farms built over farmland, overgrown grass is a real headache, so instead of spraying herbicides, developers now hire sheep to do the mowing — they graze under the panels, can slip between the hardware, and, unlike goats, don’t try to eat it.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because a huge share of solar is going onto farmland, and all that extra grass can quietly harm the project’s economics by jacking up OpEx. Using sheep instead of herbicides is a low-carbon, nature-friendly solution

My Take: ✍️ My wife’s mom, who lives on a remote farm in Australia, experienced Solar & Sheep personally, living next to an Agrovoltaic field. Yeah, It’s pretty cool.

Trump Media and Fusion Company to Merge

What Happened: Trump Media, the parent company of Truth Social, is merging with nuclear fusion developer TAE Energy in a deal that sounds less like a business strategy and more like a sci‑fi crossover episode.

Wait, what?

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is very strange, but also can be the start of a trend towards vertical integration in the AI and Media space. As largescale AI users are looking for energy sources, merging with energy providers might be a way to bring energy into the organization and avoid complex contractual arrangements.

Or, it can be a financial bet on Fusion energy, a growing field that is aggressively promoted by the Trump Administration.

My Take: ✍️ Well, to me this is the corporate version of YOLO.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ was very busy this week, with new takes on Russia’s mining empire, Gold and Fiber Optics. Way to go Amanda!

✍️ shares exciting progress on Autoimmune diseases and bumper-to-bumper charging, and brings an interesting take on startups: Mission as an API.

✍️ help a very interesting interview with none other than (I’m a bit of a fan) on US-China relations.

✍️ explores the role of Geopolitics advisory in the business world. Take his word for it - he’s a pro!

✍️ provides a guide on how to invest in Data Centers and explains the capital flows. Super interesting read!

🖇️ Jonathan Foley argues the AI carbon emission problem is less bad than you think.

🖇️ Prof. Koen Binnemans created a great illustration of how rare are different metals, including rare earths.

🐤 Craig Tindell shares a longform analysis of critical minerals

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

Neural Foundry:

Neural Foundry Substack

My personal Substack

Neural Foundry provides deep, thoughtful and from-experience takes on AI and infrastructure, written by an engineer with a great sense of writing.

I read a lot of AI newsletters and Neural Foundry is one of my favorites. This substack helps you get a deep sense of where the tech landscape is going.

Neural Foundry often provides thoughtful contrarian views (“Sam Altman Has No Idea What He is Doing”) that show original thought and a deep level of analysis (while staying accessible).

Check it out here.

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

Subscribe now

See you next week!

A new cold war has emerged - not about satellites, data centers of even AI chips. It’s about the minerals that enable our modern economy: Rare Earth Elements (REEs/rare earths).

Over the past few years, and especially in recent months, US‑China rivalry has turned critical minerals and REEs into a central front in the broader power competition.

This growing conflict is oriented around a few facts:

• China is the de-facto ruler of the REE industry, controlling roughly 70% of the mining and extraction segment, and over 90% of the refining segment.

• Beijing is increasingly willing to weaponize that position to advance its geopolitical agenda.

• Rare earths (and critical minerals) are perceived today, more than ever, as a critical component of National Security1

• The US and its allies are rushing to break free of China’s chokehold over REEs, in what sometimes seems like a frenzy to make deals and sign agreements

Given a flurry of deals and announcements made by the US and its allies, there’s one big question that’s on everyone’s mind: Will it work?

CFR’s argues that two constraints define the challenge of reducing dependence on China: time and money, accumulated over decades of Chinese investment, IP building, and global mine control.

A Crude Look at the Whole

Over the past few months, the US has rolled out a flurry of investments, agreements, and deals to counter China’s dominance over rare earths. At first glance it can look like a chaotic frenzy, but there is actually a deliberate structure underneath.

Instead of moving one tool at a time, Washington is running a six‑layer, multipronged strategy that plays to its structural advantages:

Defense authorities (DPA, Office of Strategic Capital), export finance (Ex‑Im and DFC), executive orders, alliances, capital markets, and financial instruments like loans, guarantees, and offtake agreements.

Taken separately, these moves buy time and money; together, they offer a real shot at loosening China’s grip and edging toward mineral independence.

6 Degrees of Separation

Let’s review the current US playbook for breaking free of China’s chokehold:

Layer 1: Financial De-Risking

TL;DR: Financial de‑risking unlocks private capital, but it still puts real - if smaller - costs on US taxpayers.

What’s going On: China uses its control over the industry to manipulate prices and create artificial surplus of REEs to bring prices down. This in turn makes it hard for private companies to compete, often sending them into bankruptcy. To develop a US or allied industry, private firms will need guarantees and protections.

The US has engaged in a few interesting tactics to de-risk investments:

• Price Floors: Everyone remembers the 15% equity stake in MP Minerals. But what was interesting in this deal was the $110/kg price floor

• Letters of Intent: Using the Export-Import Bank to provide letters of intent of $2.2B to Australian companies to catalyze $5B worth of investments

• Loans: Using the DPA, the US government can provide loans

These tools provide US companies with the guarantees they need to make long-term plans and investments and protect themselves against Chinese market interference.

Layer 2: Bilateral Agreements

TL;DR: Bilateral deals jump‑start private investment while shifting much of the risk and heavy lifting onto partners

What’s Going On: The US can’t do it alone. It needs friends and allies to overcome China’s gargantuan foothold.

The US is leveraging its dealmaking flair to create a series of bilateral agreements to boost production and catalyze investments. These partnerships allow the US to overcome some of its own innate challenges, like permitting and environmental concerns and share the load of buildout required to stand up refining and separation operations.

Examples:

• Australia: $8.5B initiative with $1B from each nation

• Saudi Arabia: 49% Department of Defense stake in new rare earth refinery with Maaden and MP Materials,

• Japan: Critical Minerals Supply Security Rapid Response Group, mutual stockpiling, $2-3B combined investment target

Layer 3: Defense Procurement to Make Markets

TL;DR: Defense procurement turns the Pentagon into an anchor customer, catalyzing private investment while ramping up domestic production

What’s Going On: To help US and US allied companies compete with the Chinese decades-old head start, the US government deploys its own defense apparatus to kickstart the market. The Pentagon and Dept of Defense/War are centrals players.

Examples:

• Long-Term Offtake Agreements: As in the MP Materials example, the DoD/W acts as a contract guarantee, allowing companies to take that to the bank. This is a similar dynamic to what we see in the Renewables market, where Hyperscalers often serve as Offtakers to help First of a Kind factories receive funding

• 2027 DFARS Regulatory Cliff: January 1, 2027 ban on Chinese rare earths at ANY stage of defense platforms forces defense contractors to qualify alternatives now

• Strategic Stockpiling: With $1B+ in new National Defense Stockpile acquisitions, the government is able to, once again, guarantee demand and help de-risk investments

Using the state apparatus to help de-risk the market is similar to layer 1, but also different. In layer 1, the US is investing and acting as a financial actor. In layer 4, it uses its power as a purchaser and a customer.

The DPA is the main tool here, letting the government channel funding and priority support to private projects on national security grounds.

Layer 4: Multilateral Coordination

Bottom Line: Multilateral deals are slow and rare, but they deepen coordination with allies and give the US more geopolitical weight to counter China

What’s Going On: Bilateral deals only go so far. Standing up a truly resilient supply chain requires multi‑country frameworks that coordinate investment and standards, even if they are slow and messy.

When it comes to mineral independence, the Administration is the first to join forces with other like-minded countries, often framing the enthusiasm as “America First”.

Examples:

• Pax Silica: A multilateral partnership between the US 6 other countries designed to “partner on securing strategic stacks of the global technology supply chain”. This includes critical minerals, and, you guessed it - rare earths.2

• G7 Critical Minerals Production Alliance: Coordinates investments among G7 nations while respecting existing bilateral deals, mobilizes private capital​

• G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan: Standards-based markets countering non-market policies, transparency and traceability roadmap

While not strictly multilateral, the Administration’s usage of international institutions is also striking.

Layer 5: Domestic Industrial Policy

TL;DR: Domestic industrial policy is essential for real mineral independence, but it will be slow, messy, and can’t be fixed with a few executive orders.

What’s Going On: Even with friend‑shored refineries, the US needs more domestic production to get close to mineral independence. However, permitting, local opposition, and politics make that hard. The administration is leaning on national security directives, the DPA, and Trump’s favorite: Executive Orders.

Examples:

• US National Security Strategy: “The United States must protect… This means ending (among other things): Threats against our supply chains that risk U.S. access to critical resources, including minerals and rare earth elements”

• EO 14154 (January 20): “Unleashing American Energy” mandating robust National Defense Stockpile​

• EO 14241 (March 20): Streamlined permitting plus DPA authority delegated to DFC, federal lands prioritized for mining​

• EO 14272 (April 15): Section 232 investigation on critical mineral imports launching tariff and import restriction assessments​

Using EOs helps solve problems, but it’s no panacea. It will take a long time until the US can accelerate buildout to stay on par with China.

Again, the DPA plays an important part of promoting domestic production capacity, allowing the government to override standard market signals, which are often impacted by China’s actions.

Some projections have the US sourcing around 90% of domestic demand locally by 2040, a monumental lift.

Layer 6: Innovation & Circularity

TL;DR: Innovation, recycling, and using fewer rare earths are the only real levers the US has to chip away at China’s technology and IP lead.

What’s Going On: At the end of the day, China is a few decades ahead, and much of the competitive advantage is not in the buildings and facilities they have, but rather the IP: It’s the ability to separate, process and refine REEs.

To get ahead, the US can choose three strategies (or all of them):

• Pathway 1: Urban Mining: Turning scrap into a strategic asset. By scaling recycling for magnets and motors, the US creates an “above-ground mine” that offers faster access to materials than opening new pits

• Pathway 2: Next-Gen Processing: The US can invest in next-gen technologies that will leapfrog ahead of existing Chinese impact

• Pathway 3: Use Less REEs: One way of innovating its way out of this mess is to develop industrial products that are not as reliant on REEs as they are today

All three paths are viable, but they will need sustained R&D funding and a mini industrial policy focused on advanced materials and recycling.

Playing to Your Advantage

What I find particularly interesting is that Washington is not trying to, and probably cannot “out‑China” China on centralized command and environmental tolerance; Instead, it is leaning to what it already has:

• Advanced R&D: World‑class labs and companies to push new processing technologies, recycling, and material substitution.

• Market Making & Regulatory Powers: Using DoD/W, Ex‑Im, DFC and the DPA to act as anchor customer and financial backstop

• Leveraging Global Architecture and Alliances: Leveraging NATO, the G7 and wider treaty networks to share the build‑out burden and require major defense contractors to get off Chinese inputs.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong…

Plenty. This is a complex strategy that requires many moving parts to work together in harmony, or at least not to get in each other’s way. It must also reduce the US’s dependency on China, whatever that means.

Still, it would be helpful to breakdown what could go wrong:

• Investors Can Walk Away: US permitting and regulation takes a long time. Even with US guarantees, this can be too much for investors who expect returns.

• Chinese Countermeasures: Beijing can build counter‑coalitions and still flood the world with cheap finished magnets and components.

• NIMBY: Local opposition can quietly kill projects, as seen in other energy and infrastructure fights. Don’t believe me? Ask Microsoft.

• Traditional Failures: Projects can slip, overrun budgets, or fall short of the hype, and alliances can fray.

The Road Ahead

The real test of Washington’s rare earths playbook is brutally simple: does it actually bend the fundamentals of the market away from Beijing, or just generate headlines. Over the next decade, there are three scorecards to watch.

• Does domestic and friend‑shored production of oxides, metals and magnets actually come online at scale, or stall in permitting and price wars

• Does China’s leverage in trade and security talks shrink as buyers gain credible non‑Chinese options.

• Do US‑aligned firms keep investing downstream into magnets and components once the first wave of subsidies and guarantees fades.

If the US really plans to meet most demand locally by 2040, the next decade will show whether this playbook works. Western independence may hinge on it.

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TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• Denmark goes HAM on the US (Oh hey Denmark, you finally noticed Trump wants Greenland)

• More trouble is brewing in the Arctic (quick, someone call Pierce Brosnan out of retirement)

• While new AI preemption EO is published, orgs call for a data center moratorium (can we have an epic lightsaber battle to decide?)

The Smaller Things

• Trove of new critical minerals discovered in Utah (but it’s not going to help a lot in unseating China)

• Romania to build a Rare Earth refinery (now, this is the way to counter China)

• China and France reaffirm commitment to climate diplomacy and multilateralism (China is now the prom chaperone)

The Talk of the Town

• Cement-pooping bacteria, US NSS on Minerals, Arctic Sea-Salt, 2025 recapped for Chinese AI and more!

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

Denmark goes HAM on the US

What Happened? This week, Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) labeled the US a security risk for the first time, citing Washington’s ambitions in Greenland. The report points to the new US National Security Strategy, warning that Washington uses economic pressure and even the threat of force, including against allies.

I dug into this story before:

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the US’s ambitions to take over Greenland are a part of the broader geopolitical realignment. Danish warnings come at the same time as Greenland refuses to let Starlink enter the country, citing concerns over Musk’s ties to the Administration. And let’s not even get started with Russia and China...

My Take: ✍️ The US tried to calm things down, but the Arctic is experiencing a seismic shift. Honestly, this is starting to look like a Mexican Standoff. To quote Key and Peele’s epic skit: “Who’s double-crossing themselves while dressed as each other”.

More Troubles in the Arctic

What Happened? As if the US-Denmark rift wasn’t enough, the Arctic had another banner week for bad news. Russia’s navy chief accused NATO of stepping up spying in the region, just as Canada rolled out a new partnership to close its Arctic military communications gap. At the same time, a new report details Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics on Svalbard since 2014, and experts warn that the Ambler road approved by the Trump Administration could push Alaska’s Arctic to the brink.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the pace of events in the Arctic is picking up, from climate degradation to geopolitical tensions. It’s hard at this point to say anything with certainty, but it does seem like the Arctic is gearing for something bigger.

My Take: ✍️ Are we on the way to the Second South China Sea in the Arctic? Maybe I’ll post some thoughts about this soon!

Calls for US Data Center Moratorium

What Happened? While everyone is talking about the AI Preemption Executive Order that somewhat preempts state AI regulation1, a new kind of moratorium is gaining steam in the US, one diametrically opposed to the Trump Administration’s policy: Stop building data centers.

Over 230 organizations have sent an open letter to Congress, asking it to take action and forbid the construction of new data centers, citing environmental concerns and rising energy prices.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because these movements tends to have lives of their own. It’s easy to dismiss them as a bunch of hippies, but with NIMBY already reshaping data center buildout in the US, this moratorium call might travel further than people expect. Congress is unlikely to act, but the pressure on local politicians, developers and even Hyperscalers is real.

My Take: ✍️ Are we seeing the tides turning against Data Centers, or will the Trump Administration prevail? Only one way to decide: Lightsaber Duel.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Lots of New Minerals for the US

What Happened: Ionic Minerals Technology, a US critical minerals company, has uncovered a gargantuan deposit at its Silicon Ridge mine in Utah, containing germanium, gallium and 14 other critical materials used in advanced technologies. Some countries have all the luck, I guess.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because in the race for mineral security, every new domestic source helps. This find gives Washington more room to build out alternative supply chains and chip away at its dependence on China.

My Take: ✍️ Yeah, this is great and stuff, but the real bottleneck lies in refining, separation and product integration. The US remains heavily reliant on China, and this new deposit won’t radically change the strategic dependency unless refining capacity scales up at home or with trusted partners.

Romania Joins the Rare Earth Gang

What Happened: Speaking of breaking China’s grip on critical minerals, here’s something that will actually move the needle: Critical Metals has announced a JV with Romania’s FPCU to build a rare earth processing plant in Romania. The facility will handle up to 50% of the output from the Tanbreez mine in Greenland.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because unlike mining, refining is the real chokehold. This refinery does help ameliorate the West’s refining soft spot. This deal follows MP Materials’ JV with Maaden to build a refinery in Saudi Arabia, putting Europe on the map with respect to the ability to counter China’s stranglehold over rare earth processing.

My Take: ✍️ We’re literally witnessing the reconfiguration of rare earths in the making, one deal after another. Exciting times ahead. My bet is China is looking closely and looking for ways to strengthen its position, while more deals are likely to follow.

France and China Collaborate on Climate

What Happened: During a state visit to China, French President Macron and Chinese President Xi issued a joint statement pledging deeper cooperation on climate change and environmental challenges, and voicing renewed support for multilateral climate institutions and processes such as the IPCC.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because while the US turned away from both climate action and multilateralism, China is stepping into the void and is taking a leadership position on global affairs, with climate change being a key priority for Beijing.

My Take: ✍️ Nature abhors a vacuum, and this is no exception. Beijing has consistently used US strategic retrenchment to cast itself as the engine of the very multilateral order it once resisted, and climate diplomacy is a particularly convenient arena given China’s ability to scale climate tech and energy capacity at astonishing speed.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ provides a mineral-focused analysis of the US National Security Strategy and explores the ESG aspects of mining.

✍️ shares the news about cement-pooping bacteria and cosmic candy (I still can’t believe it’s real!)

✍️ shares his report and takeaways on Data Centers and NIMBYism

🔗 Matthew Henry shares a new study on marine cloud brightening in the Arctic, showing that sea-salt particles can help restore Arctic sea ice

✍️ explores the rise of sovereign clouds and the shifts in the investment landscape that are taking place

✍️ of ChinaTalk recaps Chinese AI’s 2025, looking at robotics, policy and US-China competition. Extra recommended to those who want to understand the big picture of AI and China

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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If you happened to receive this email from a friend, please consider subscribing. If you’re already a part of this community, I’d love it if you could recommend it to a friend.

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TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• US launched a new National Security Strategy (wait where’s the Arctic in this one)

• China eases rare earth element export controls (see you at the next round Beijing)

• The Arctic Heats Up, Slowly (Putin makes a lot of people nervous or something)

• Big week for Data Centers and Nuclear (lots of drama in DataCenterLand)

The Smaller Things

• Zillow deletes its climate risk function (I guess it worked too well?)

• Personal stories over the climate insurance crunch (there are people behind numbers)

The Talk of the Town

• Genesis Mission, cold-war AI, AI jagged frontiers, China’s 2025 climate scores and dispatches from Aceh

Creator Spotlight

• Sustainability by the Numbers (Hannah Richie breaks down climate debates with actual facts)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

US launches a new National Security Strategy

What Happened? While this is not a NatSec blog, I did want to highlight the new National Security Strategy (NSS) document published by the Trump Administration this week. This 20‑something‑page document defines (or redefines) America’s priorities in the region, while effectively declaring that America is “soo back”.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this document defines the US’s national security priorities and essentially tells us how the Trump Administration sees the world. If you’ve been following US moves this past year, you probably can already guess 80% of the document.

My Take: ✍️ I’ll let the geopolitics experts weigh in, but as far as my coverage is concerned, I am somewhat surprised by the scant to no attention to the Arctic and to rare earths (only one reference), given how much attention the US gives these two topics in practice.

China Eases Rare Earth Export Controls (For Now)

What Happened? Following its announced truce with the US, China has finally issued new licenses to export rare earths. These one‑year, more flexible export licenses were given to three Chinese companies. Still, it doesn’t seem like China has changed its policies in a strategic or structural way.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this looks like a tactical pause in the US‑China minerals cold war, and it’s still unclear how deep or lasting the easing will be.

My Take: ✍️ Nice move by Beijing, but I don’t see China’s move impacting the global race for mineral independence, given that the Chinese can just shut the floodgates the next time Trump gets under their skin.

The Arctic Gets Hotter, Slowly

What Happened? There’s a lot happening on the Arctic front: NATO chief Mark Rutte stopped in Reykjavik to highlight Iceland’s strategic role, NATO’s Standing Maritime Group 1 deployed to Norway’s Arctic waters, and Norway ordered more submarines for ‘turbulent times’. Oh yeah, cool as a cucumber.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the Arctic is turning into a contested arena for asymmetric pressure - informational, economic and military - and Russia’s recent moves have NATO states visibly on edge.

My Take: ✍️ You’d be surprised at just how much the the Russia‑Ukraine peace talks are making Northern states nervous, many of them worried that Putin will turn to the high north next.

Big Week for Data Centers and Nuclear

What Happened? Nuclear and data centers both had a big week, full of drama and fun. Google is exploring nuclear power for an Iowa data center in Tornado Alley, and the Trump administration just committed $800M to next‑gen nuclear projects. At the same time, Georgia proposed letting data centers contract directly with clean‑energy developers, PJM’s ombudsman warned against adding more data centers to an already‑strained grid, and a new report says data centers could use about 40 percent more electricity than previously expected.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because the issues of data centers, the grid and nuclear power are intertwined. Whether the US can power data centers or not will have significant consequences.

My Take: ✍️ The landscape really is chaotic: tech, utilities, regulators and nuclear are all pulling in different directions, and there’s no coherent plan yet. Right now it looks less like a strategy and more like a live‑fire experiment in how far the grid can stretch.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

Zillow Deletes its Climate Risk Feature

What Happened: Home‑buying platform Zillow removed a feature it launched last year that let buyers see a property’s exposure to climate risks like floods, wind and fire. The change came after real‑estate agents and homeowners complained the scores were arbitrary and hurt sales. Instead of in‑house scores, Zillow now links out to First Street, the nonprofit that powered the original tool.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because Zillow’s move shows two things at once: First, that climate risk warnings do in fact work (perhaps too well) and influence people’s decisions, and that the tide has in fact turned against climate monitoring and transportability. Neither is a great sign.

My Take: ✍️ I guess some things work a little too well. Zillow may solve a short‑term sales problem, but it’s inviting a longer‑term fight over how much climate risk buyers deserve to see upfront.

Home Insurance Sees Climate Crunch

What Happened: The NYT has gathered stories and evidence of how the rise in climate related disasters are influencing home insurance, chronicling everyday Americans’ encounters with increased premiums and reduced coverage.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because behind statistics there are people who cannot afford insurance and see their coverage declining, and the NYT has done a great job in capturing these stories.

My Take: ✍️ The Insurance market in the US is experiencing a visible and noticeable crunch that is only set to increase as the planet becomes more volatile. I suspect we will see more and more of these stories popping up, and not only during national-scale disasters.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ explores the Genesis Mission and an app-replacing agentic future

✍️ interviews about her new role at CSET, AI’s Jagged Frontier and more. It’s a wonderful interview that explores modern think-tanking and the frontiers of AI research.

✍️ recaps 2025 for China’s energy and climate. It’s a lot more complicated than you’d think and far more nuanced.

✍️ explores the connection between extraction economics to the recent mudslides in Aceh in a deeply personal and beautifully written essay.

✍️ warns of possible overinvestments in AI and brings up a Cold-War corollary

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

Sustainability by the Numbers

Sustainability by numbers

Using data and research to understand what really makes a difference

By Hannah Ritchie

authors an excellent evidence-based substack dedicated to bringing balance and nuance to the sustainability debate.

Her writing is accessible and engaging and makes delving into the data fun and easy. Reading Ritchie’s blog, it is easy to orient around hard cold facts that are often confusing and locked away in complex industry jargon.

Personally, I can’t wait to read the next post and make sure to look at her work to inform my own writing.

Check it out here!

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, don’t forget to subscribe or share your thoughts. 🔽

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If you happened to receive this email from a friend, please consider subscribing. If you’re already a part of this community, I’d love it if you could recommend it to a friend.

Share A World Reconfigured

Hey everyone!

Thanksgiving is upon us. While I personally don’t celebrate, I wish all of my friends and colleagues in the US a happy holiday.

You probably have received countless lectures on what you should be grateful for, so I am not going to add one.

Instead, I’m just going to say that I’m thankful for (1) 2025 not being all that much worse; (2) discovering Substack and the wonderful community; (3) the many writers on this platform who work hard to bring the most interesting takes and thoughts out there.

Ok, now, let’s get back to it👇

TL;DR

The Bigger Things

• US launched the Genesis Mission (aka AI Manhattan Project)

• UK issues a critical minerals strategy (but isn’t spending enough money on it)

• Finland has a new Arctic strategy (which is to high-five Canada)

• China goes big on the global stage (fusion energy and rare earths)

The Smaller Things

• NYC Comptroller suggests pensions drop BlackRock (so much for Fink’s 2020 letter)

• Gas station operators prepare for the EV future (can I play the Arcade while I’m charging?)

The Talk of the Town

• Africa’s critical mineral future, gratitude for food, the political mistakes of the climate movement and more

Creator Spotlight

• Amanda’s Substack (critical minerals for the win!)

The Bigger Things

The biggest stories you probably missed:

US Launched the Genesis Mission, an AI Manhattan Project

What Happened? The US has announced the launch of the Genesis Mission, which surprisingly does not involve going anywhere. Rather, it is a push to unite federal agencies, labs and supercomputers on one platform. It will use vast federal datasets to train large models that turbocharge science, energy and security research with AI, led by the Department of Energy.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because, as explained by Sebastian Barros, this is a US attempt to respond to China’s encompassing state ecosystem to use AI for its own progress and is an equivalent of an AI Manhattan Project.

My Take: ✍️ Super cool. There are risks, but overall this is an important development. It’s about time the US used AI at full tilt for science again – this feels like the America I grew up with, one that advances science, technology and energy.

UK Wants Critical Mineral Independence

What Happened? The UK has released this week a shiny new strategy to increase its critical mineral independence. Under the new plan, the UK will invest 50M GBP in projects that will boost UK mineral production, and will aim to produce 10% of the UK’s mineral needs (and up to 20% with recycling) by 2035.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because it’s about time the UK did something. While others rushed to counter China’s dominance, the UK was asleep; now it finally seems to be taking the challenge seriously, which is good news for Europe’s bid to decouple from China.

My Take:✍️ Really? 50M GBP?

That will barely cover… anything. The UK needs bigger, bolder, more innovative moves if it truly wants mineral independence.

Finland Has a New Arctic Strategy

What Happened? Finland has released a new Arctic Strategy amid growing regional tensions, positioning itself as an Arctic stabilizer. The document spells out its view of great‑power competition in the region, names friends and foes, and shows a clear soft spot for Canada.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️Because Finland is obviously nervous about the growing instability of what was once a pinnacle of global collaboration and cooperation. Reading through the document, it almost seems Finland realizes we’re not in Kansas anymore and is looking to position itself as an Arctic protector and to find partners to share the load.

My Take:✍️ Finland is right to be nervous and to seek new partners. Mark Carney’s Canada is stepping up in the Arctic and looks like a strong non‑Nordic partner at a time when Russian and Chinese activity means Finland will need all the help it can get to keep the region stable.

China is Swinging for the Fences on the World Stage

What Happened? This week, China rolled out two big initiatives to reshape its global role. One is the Fusion Coalition with 10 countries (including France, the UK and Germany), and the other is a Rare Earths Bloc against the US with 19 developing countries such as Zimbabwe and Myanmar.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because China isn’t resting on its laurels and is actively working to bolster its geopolitical stance through diplomacy and scientific collaborations, at times with the US’s own set of allies.

My Take: ✍️ Decoupling from China is messy and complex. I expect to see more of this fragmentation and additional attempts by China to court partners with ambitious scientific and trade collaborations.

The Smaller Things

The stories you should have on your radar:

NYC Comptroller Puts a Bullseye on BlackRock

What Happened: Departing NYC Comptroller Brand Lander decided to comptroll recommend that pension boards should drop BlackRock, Fidelity and PanAgora for having inadequate climate policies.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ Because this is a highly influential decision, which could cost the fund manager a lot of money, and signals a renewed push towards climate policies in the Trump era. This could be a first sign of a sea change in corporate governance, but could also be just one isolated case. We’ll see.

My Take: ✍️ Larry Fink isn’t so hot in the climate circles these days, is he?1 🤓

Gas Stations Prepare for the EV Consumer

What Happened: Nobody wants to linger at gas stations; it’s usually get in, get gas, get out. But as EVs spread, chains like WaWa and Sheetz are retooling their sites with cleaner bathrooms, WiFi and upgraded stores to keep drivers happy while they charge.

Why Care? 🤷‍♂️ With EVs projected to reach 78M by 2035, gas stations need to update the customer experience for longer charging stops. Because charging is far less profitable than gasoline, chains like WaWa and Sheetz are betting future margins will come from food, drinks and other in‑store sales.

My Take: ✍️ I don’t have an EV (yet!), but if I did, I would surely want to pass the time while I’m charging my vehicle. Personally, I wouldn’t mind an epic Arcade while charging.

Talk of the Town:

I read way too much Linkedin, Twitter and Substack for my own good. Here are a few of my favorites this week:

✍️ shares a special food episode of his great weekly take just for thanksgiving!

✍️ launches his consulting career - congrats Alan and good luck!

✍️ shares her take on Africa’s ability to attract investors (thanks, Mali!)

✍️ shares a great recap and analysis of the Genesis Mission (and calls it the AI Manhattan Project, which I like very much)

✍️ shares his annual Thanksgiving reflections on a variety of macro topics. Very much recommended!

🎥 Robinson Meyer appeared at about the miscalculations of the climate movement

Creator Shoutout

Every week I’m going to highlight a writer/creator I am inspired by.

This week’s shoutout goes to:

Amanda’s Substack (Critical Minerals)

Amanda’s Substack

My personal Substack

By Amanda van Dyke

is a real expert on critical minerals and rare earths. Her writing offers well‑written, accessible takes on the complex world of minerals.

Amanda’s writing features rare takes on rare earths, covering the dynamics of each mineral in detail. She helps her readers to understand that rare earths are not all the same and provides illuminating facts and analysis about them.

Her coverage spans across rare earth elements (e.g., Scandium), the dynamics of key critical minerals (e.g., the structural deficits of Copper) and geopolitical movements (e.g., tarriffs) and is always incredibly accessible and easy to read.

Personally, Amanda’s substack has become my go-to source to better understand the critical minerals industry.

Check it out here!

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See you next week!